风险点

Arithmetically while profit decreases geometrically; if you keep betting more

下几点：每笔交易都有完美的f；如果你赌的少，风险是数字式的减少而利润是几何级的

His book is mathematically demanding, but it boils down to a few key concepts: there is an optimal f for every trade; if you bet less, your risk decreases arithmetically while profit decreases geometrically; if you keep betting more than the optimal f, you are guaranteed to go broke.

他的书用了很多数学计算，但最终总结为以下几点：每笔交易都有完美的 f；如果你赌的少，风险是数字式的减少而利润是几何级的减少；如果你投入的比最完美的 f 多，你肯定会破产。

We want to emphasize three points:(1) While we expect our super-cat business to produce satisfactory results over, say, a decade, we're sure it will produce absolutely terrible results in at least an occasional year;(2) Our expectations can be based on little more than subjective judgments - for this kind of insurance, historical loss data are of very limited value to us as we decide what rates to charge today; and (3) Though we expect to write significant quantities of super-cat business, we will do so only at prices we believe to be commensurate with risk.

我们有三点必须要强调(1)我们预期霹雳猫的业务长期来讲，假设以 10 年为期，应该可以获得令人满意的结果，当然我们也知道在这其中的某些年度成绩可能会很惨(2)我们这样的预期并非是基于客观的判断，对于这样的保险业务，历史的资料对于我们在做订价决策时并没有太大的参考价值(3)虽然我们准备签下大量的霹雳猫保单，但有一个很重要的前提那就是价格必须要能够与所承担的风险相当，所以若我们的竞争对手变得乐观积极，那幺我们的量就会马上减少，事实上过去几年市场价格有点低的离谱，这使得大部分的参与者都被用担架抬离场。

If we give notice of refusal of documents presented under this credit we shall however retain the right to accept a waiver of discrepancies from the applicant and, subject to such wavier being acceptable to us, to release documents against that waiver without reference to the presenter provided that no written instructions to the contrary have been received by us from the presenter before the release, instruction shall not constitute a failure on our part to hold the documents at the presenter's risk and disposal, and we will have no liability to the presenter in respect of anu such release.

如果我们通知本信用证项下的不符点，但是，我们仍然保留将不符单据放单给申请人的权利（如果开证申请人放弃不符点，愿意接受不符单据的话），只要我们在放单之前没有收到交单人的书面的相反指示，那么，这就不构成我们的失职（没有考虑交单人的风险和持单听候指示），并且在此情况下的放单，我们将对交单人不负任何责任。

If we give notice of refusal of documents presented under this credit we shall however retain the right to accept a waiver of discrepancies from the applicant and, subject to such wavier being acceptable to us, to release documents against that waiver without reference to the presenter provided that no written instructions to the contrary have been received by us from the presenter before the release, instruction shall not constitute a failure on our part to hold the documents at the presenter's risk and disposal, and we will have no liability to the presenter in respect of anu such release.

我试着翻译一下：如果我们通知本信用证项下的不符点，但是，我们仍然保留将不符单据放单给申请人的权利（如果开证申请人放弃不符点，愿意接受不符单据的话），只要我们在放单之前没有收到交单人的书面的相反指示，那么，这就不构成我们的失职（没有考虑交单人的风险和持单听候指示），并且在此情况下的放单，我们将对交单人不负任何责任不当之处，请指正

The answer, sadly, is that I did - but I didn't convert thought into action. I violated the Noah rule: Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does. I consequently let Berkshire operate with a dangerous level of risk -at General Re in particular. I'm sorry to say that much risk forwhich we haven't been compensated remains on our books, but it is running off by the day.

我的回答是，我确实有想到这点，但可惜的是我并未将想法化为举体的行动，关于这点我严重违反了诺亚的原则，&能够准确预测下雨不厉害，重要的是要去建方舟&，我等于是让伯克希尔在相当危险的情况下经营，尤其是通用再保，而且我必须承认，截至目前我们还在免费为大家承担无可预测的风险，所幸这种情况已随着时间慢慢减少。

The answer, sadly, is that I did - but I didn't convert thought into action. I violated the Noah rule: Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does. I consequently let Berkshire operate with a dangerous level of risk - at General Re in particular. I'm sorry to say that much risk for which we haven't been compensated remains on our books, but it is running off by the day.

我的回 答是，我确实有想到这点，但可惜的是我并未将想法化为举体的行动，关于这点我严重违反了诺亚的原则，&能够准确预测下雨不厉害，重要的是要去建方舟&，我等于是让伯克希尔在相当危险的情况下经营，尤其是通用再保，而且我必须承认，截至目前我们还在免费为大家承担无可预测的风险，所幸这种情况已随着时间慢慢减少。

The answer, sadly, is that I did - but I didn't convert thought into action. I violated the Noah rule: Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does. I consequently let Berkshire operate with a dangerous level of risk - at General Re in particular. I'm sorry to say that much risk for which we haven't been compensated remains on our books, but it is running off by the day.

我的回 答是，我确实有想到这点，但可惜的是我并未将想法化为举体的行动，关于这点我严重违反了诺亚的原则，「能够准确预测下雨不厉害，重要的是要去建方舟」，我等于是让 Berkshire 在相当危险的情况下经营，尤其是通用再保，而且我必须承认，截至目前我们还在免费为大家承担无可预测的风险，所幸这种情况已随着时间慢慢减少。

Why, you might ask, didn't I recognize the above facts before September 11th? The answer, sadly, is that I did - but I didn't convert thought into action. I violated the Noah rule: Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does. I consequently let Berkshire operate with a dangerous level of risk - at General Re in particular. I'm sorry to say that much risk for which we haven't been compensated remains on our books, but it is running off by the day.

我的 回答是，我确实有想到这点，但可惜的是我并未将想法化为举体的行动，关于这点我严重违反了诺亚的原则，「能够准确预测下雨不厉害，重要的是要去建方舟」，我等于是让 Berkshire 在相当危险的情况下经营，尤其是通用再保，而且我必须承认，截至目前我们还在免费为大家承担无可预测的风险，所幸这种情况已随着时间慢慢减少。

The new version, published in Circulation in 2008, added stroke, heart failure and disease in the leg arteries to broaden the scope of the tool, as well as a point system that linked a relative 10-year risk to vascular age.

其最新版本2008年发表在《循环》杂志上，该版本增加了中风、心力衰竭和腿部血管疾病用来扩大该工具的适用范围，同时将10内的心脏病风险和动脉年龄做了点对点对照系统。

They weren't aggressive, but I yelled and threw a rock in their direction to get them off the trail and away from me, just in case.

他们没有侵略性，但我大喊，并在他们的方向扔石头让他们过的线索，远离我，以防万一。

In slot 2 in your bag put wrapping paper, quantity does not matter in this case.

在你的书包里槽2把包装纸、数量无关紧要。