风险

The results indicate that the application of high technology in food production has raised the uncertainty level of food safety. Hence, it is essential to strengthen the risk management and communication methods in the production process. In addition, TAFT has been implemented in developed countries for many years, so, an imperfective TAFT system will be an obstacle for exporting our agricultural products to these countries.

在应然面方面，现代农业与食品生产方式由於常涉及高度科学不确定性之风险争议，必须透过强化风险治理及风险沟通机制，以保障消费者食的安全，并同时强化农作物生产的风险控管，以保障守法农民；此外，产销履历制度於先进国家行之有年的情况下，若不推行产销履历制度将使我国农产品出口形成阻碍，因此我国亟需产销履历制度的施行。

Hedging Strategies Indicatively, transaction risk is often hedged tactically or strategically to preserve cash flows and earnings, depending on the firm's treasury view on the future movements of the currencies involved.

在确定汇率风险的类型和测量相关的风险，公司需要决定是否进行套期保值或不这些风险。在国际金融，适当的策略，以管理问题汇率风险的不同类型，仍有待解决（希拉克，1996）。

This paper analyses the homogenous tendency of open-end fund at first,pointing out that unperfect development of market and investors' immature investment opinions is the origin of such phenomena. Secondly,having compared the fund sizes and purchase fee rates of 25 open-end funds in China,conclude that there are problems of diseconomy of scale and indistinctive relativity between fees and achievement in Chinese open-end funds. Then this paper introduces benefit and cost function to analyze the problem of lack of motivation and constrain mechanism towards fund managers because of unreasonable fees in China. Thirdly,this paper analyze funds managers' normal hazards by static game model,and then points out fund managers have serious tunneling behaviors in Chinese open-end fund industry. In the end,this paper analyzes the causes of liquidity risk of open-end fun and the particularity of liquidity risk of open-end fund in China,and concludes that liquidity risk in Chinese open-end fund industry is higher through calculating the rates of share change and comparing the portfolio selections of top 20 open-end funds in China.

本文首先分析了我国目前存在的基金产品同质化现象，指出市场发展的不完善以及投资者投资理念的不成熟是同质化的根源所在；其次对比了我国现有的25只开放式基金的规模和申购费率，得出了我国开放式基金存在着规模效应不明显以及基金业绩与费率相关性不强的问题，并引入效益函数和成本函数分析了由于我国开放式基金费率不合理引发的基金管理者激励约束机制缺失的问题；再次，应用静态博弈模型分析了基金管理人面临的道德风险，指出目前我国开放式基金由于监管机制脆弱而存在着较为严重的管理者利益输送行为；最后，分析了开放式基金流动性风险的形成原因以及我国基金市场流动性风险的特殊性，并通过计算目前我国基金资产规模前20位的开放式基金的份额变动率以及比较它们的投资组合结构，得出了目前我国开放式基金流动性风险偏大的结论。

Chapter 1 we introduce the risk process with positive and negative risk sums,show the background of the risk process. Chapter 2 we show the integral and differential equation of birth probability,give the Lundberg inequation that the ruin probability satisfies with martingale approach,then discuss then ruin probability of the risk process with two dependent positive and negative risk sums,study how the dependence impacts on the ruin probability. Chapter 3 we compare the concrete examples by numbers,and makes further comparison between the two results coming out of independency and dependency,with the purpose of narrating their respective impacts on the probability of ruin probability.

本文第一章引入含正、负风险和的风险模型，介绍风险过程的实际背景；第二章给出生存概率Φ所满足的积分-微分方程，利用典型鞅方法给出破产概率Ψ满足的Lundberg不等式，并且讨论两个相关正、负风险和模型的破产概率，研究相关性对破产概率的影响；第三章对具体实例给出数值比较，进一步把相关性和独立性两种情形的结果进行比较，说明对破产概率的影响。

Risk is the inherency of finance system and finance activity.

风险是金融体系和金融活动的基本属性之一，风险管理活动是各类金融机构所从事的全部业务和管理活动中最核心的内容。20世纪90年代中期以长期资产管理公司为代表的微观金融风险事件和以墨西哥金融危机、亚洲金融危机为代表的宏观经济现象，引起了人们对金融风险的普遍关注，以及在微观层面上对金融安全运行的深刻反思。

This thesis conform to necessity of risk management of real estate. This thesis make foundations in the theory of risk , make systemic research and analysis of all kinds of risk factors of real estate market, expound the instancy and necessary of risk management of real estate.

本文顺应房地产开发经营风险管理的需要，在对风险理论研究的基础上，基于对房地产市场各类风险因素进行了系统的研究和分析，阐述了房地产风险管理的必要性和紧迫性。

Adverse selection and moral hazard reduce the insurability of risk, so the insurance mechanism losts its effect of risk control.

逆向选择和道德风险降低了风险的可保性，使保险机制难以发挥其风险分散和风险控制作用，使保险市场失去其有效性。

In the fourth part, the thesis firstly analyses the principle and developing direction that the state-owned commercial bank should take to implement overall risk management. Then it expounds the countermeasures and measures for the state-owned commercial banks to carry out overall risk management in all dimensions, namely the reforming of the property right institution, bettering the risk management idea, structuring the framework of the risk management, building interne grade system and improving external economical environment.

论文的第四部分首先分析了国有商业银行实施全面风险管理应采取的原则和发展方向；其次从产权制度改革、优化风险管理理念、构建风险管理组织架构、建设内部评级系统以及改善外部经济环境等方面提出了国有商业银行实施全面风险管理的对策和措施。

At last, this chapter puts forwards the countermeasures to perfect venture capital legal system of China.

我国风险投资法律制度的完善应该包括：促进风险投资高效率运作的法律制度的完善，促进风险投资有效供给和有效需求的法律制度的完善，保障我国风险投资退出渠道的畅通的法律制度的完善等等。

Linear forecast combination isconsidered in this paper. The main content of this paper include the discussion ofdiversification e?

本文对市场风险的风险值组合预测进行系统地研究，主要目的是建立风险值组合预测的理论基础，为风险值组合预测提供一个简单、科学的应用方法。

Plunder melds and run with this jewel!

掠夺melds和运行与此宝石！

My dream is to be a crazy growing tree and extend at the edge between the city and the forest.

此刻，也许正是在通往天国的路上，我体验着这白色的晕旋。