风险

When investors are in the treasury secondary market, they have to undertake two kinds of risks: the first one is yield risk, that is, return of investment is lower than inflation rate. This risk can be depicted as the deviation between the ROI and the inflation rate. Secondly, fluctuation risk in the treasury secondary market, that is, the uncertain fluctuation risk may be bullish or bearish in the treasury market.This risk can be depicted as the square deviation of the treasury price in the secondary market.

在国债现货二级市场上的投资者，要承担的风险主要有两种：第一种风险是收益率风险，也就是投资收益率可能低于通货膨胀率的风险，这种风险可以用与通货膨胀率相比较的差值的大小来描述；第二种风险是二级市场价格波动性风险，也就是市场价格上、下波动的不确定性风险，这种风险可以用二级市场价格的标准差来描述。

This paper quantitates financial risk by constituting the model of measurement financial risk. And the samples are from the public companies'merger and acquisition from 2002 to 2005, this paper demonstrates perfectly the influence of financial risk of acquisition companies from different payment methods. The result of test analysis shows: in one side, the theory of risk-return is unfit in China (by being educed conclusions by other students: different payment methods bring different return, then the author detrusions different payment methods bringing different financial risk, and being tested direct proportion each other); in the other side, this paper answers different payment methods bringing different degree financial risk of acquisition companies: the smallest financial risk from cash payment method, the mean from commingle payment method, the biggest from stock payment method, which can supply reference in the choice of rational companies between payment methods and financial risk .

通过建立企业财务风险度量模型，将企业财务风险量化，并以中国上市公司2002年—2005年间的并购案中所采用的支付方式为样本，对我国上市公司并购中不同支付方式对并购方财务风险的影响做一个较系统、完善的实证检验，一方面从理论上验证了风险-收益理论的在我国的不具有适用性（通过对前人研究结论：不同支付方式带来不同收益，进而反推不同支付方式带来不同的财务风险，验证得出二者成正比关系）；另一方面回答在我国目前市场条件下并购中的不同支付方式引起收购公司不同程度的财务风险，其中现金支付方式下给收购公司带来的财务风险最小；混合支付次之，股票支付方式下财务风险最大，能给企业在并购时选择支付方式与财务风险的最佳组合提供参考。

First, select four kinds of main risks source from bigly celebrate the main risk in region source, namely the flood, drought, sand-dust weather and petroleum pollution accident, etc. According to the different a request for to habitat, study this 19 kinds of landscapes ecosystem type of the Regional induce for 7 kinds of ecosystems system: Then the marsh of bulrush, lakes and reservoirs , salt alkali wasteland, prairie, island form wood, farmland, town. The difference is proceeded by characteristic according to each type ecosystem to the analysis of four kinds of main risks source, including the certain risk all rate, delimiting the space distribute, analyzing the risk strength to the receptor etc. At proceed the revelation the different from endanger to analyze the inside, this text borrows ecosystem index number that this index sign to reflect primarily habitat the ecosystem meaning of the type of habitat the different from position, with weak an index number to show the destructibility of the habitat, from but compute each ecosystem that is lost by ecosystem system an index number.

首先，从大庆地区主要的风险源中遴选出四种主要的风险源，即洪涝、干旱、沙尘天气和石油污染等；依据不同生物类群对生境的要求，将本研究区域的19种景观生态类型归纳为7种生态系统：即芦苇沼泽、湖泡库渠、盐碱荒地、草甸草原、岛状林、农田、城镇；对四种主要风险源的进行分析，包括确定风险概率，划定空间分布，对风险受体的作用强度分析等；在进行暴露和危害分析中，本文主要借生态指数这一指标来反映不同生境类型的生态意义和地位，以脆弱度指数来体现不同生境的易损性，从而计算出各受体生态系统的生态损失度指数；由于各主要风险物质对风险受体的作用强度是不同的，对形成区域性生态风险的作用大小也有差异，因此本文采用层次分析法对主要生态风险物质进行综合评价，并把判断矩阵排序权值的合理计算问题归为—非线性化问题，并提出用基于遗传算法(GA[5])的层次分析模型进行权重分析；进行风险表征，即综合前面两个阶段的信息，对环境中风险的性质和强度以及风险评价过程中不确定性问题进行分析与描述，并划分出五级生态风险区；最后，根据划分的五级生态风险区的特征，分别提出针对各生态风险区的生态风险管理对策。

2 The particularity and insurability of agriculture risks are the base of establishing and implementing the agriculture insurance system. Agriculture risk is the base of agriculture insurance, and particularity of agriculture risk causes speciality of agriculture insurance.

农业风险的特殊性以及农业风险的可保性是农业保险制度制定和实施的基础农业风险是农业保险的基础，农业风险的特殊性导致了农业保险的特殊性，但是，农业风险的特殊性并不代表农业风险没有可保性，农业风险具有以下特点：(1)多数农业风险的风险单位较大、风险难以分散。

The aims of disaster study and risk study are tent to unanimousness, both will offer the theoretical basis for sustainable development models. Regional safety construction based on disaster study is converting into regional risk management system based on risk study. So the authors consider that sustainable development model is the regional development model under a certain risk level, and the risk level relies on the regional safety construction level that integrates the regional economic level and social cultural system. Strengthening subject construction of disaster and risk study in China, national laboratory construction, and organization and practice of key items are imperative. And we should put the study emphasis on the vulnerability assessment system and models, risk assessment system and models, disaster and risk management mode of typical region, disaster and risk emergency control scenario, disaster and risk regions.

灾害与风险研究的目标正在趋向一致，都集中在为可持续发展模式提供科学依据；基于灾害研究的区域安全建设正在向基于风险研究的区域风险管理体系转变，由此认为可持续发展模式就是接受一定风险水平条件下的区域发展模式，一定风险水平依赖于由区域经济水平与社会文化体系相关联的区域安全建设水平；加强我国灾害与风险科学研究的学科建设、国家实验室建设、重大项目的组织与实施已势在必行；重点开展灾害脆弱性评价体系与评价模型、风险评价体系与风险评价模型、典型区域灾害与风险管理范式、灾害与风险应急控制预案、灾害与风险区划等方面的研究。

In this paper we use the expert-investigation method to distinguish the risks of the project and then we build a model and to use the analysis of hieratical processto evaluate the risks of the project. After this we get the weighs of every risk we distinguish and we also get the high, middle and low probability of the projects whole risk. And then we analyze the two important risks of the project, the market risk and the design risk, we also make out the methods to control the risks.

本文在对周公山楠水阁酒店工程的风险管理研究中，采用了专家调查法对咳项目所面临的风险进行识别，并建立了风险评估模型，在此基础上用层次分析法对各风险因素进行评估得出了各种风险因素所占的权重和整体工程项目的风险度大小，着重对市场风险和设计风险做了详细分析，在分析的基础上给出了相应的风险控制措施和方法，最后总结了在风险管理过程中的成绩及不足之处。

The type of commercial bank risk in our nation is almost the same with that of the western commercial bank, and can be divided into credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, operation risk, policy risk and financial grifting risk and so on based on risk factor.

我国商业银行的风险类型与西方商业银行的风险类型基本相同，从风险因素角度，划分为信用风险、市场风险、流动性风险、操作风险、政策性风险和金融诈骗风险等基本风险。

The article takes S Company as an example, briefly introduces the ERP risks identification, such as environment risk, technique risk, item advancing risk and management transforming risk before the enterprise carrying it out, and the risk management to handpicking raw and processed materials provider, cautiously choosing ERP system provider, avoiding hardware and secure technique risk, evading item advance risk, actively boosting operation flow reform etc.

本文以S公司为例，重点介绍了该企业在实施ERP项目之前对环境风险、技术风险、项目推进风险、管理变革风险等的识别，以及在精选原材料供应商、慎重选择ERP系统供应商、有效避免硬件和安全技术风险、规避项目推进风险和积极推行业务流程再造等方面采取的风险管理措施，并针对目前该公司ERP项目的缺陷提出了今后在避免&小会计&风险、不可扩展性风险和人才流失风险上面的具体防范措施。

Secondly, it summarizes development and gradual progress about operational risk measurement. Analyzes and compares two main categories at present: bottom-up and top-down, and Loss Distribution Approach of top-down and Income Model of bottom-up is studied deeply, then finds out the main challenges of operational risk measure methods. Thirdly, taking examples for Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Shenzhen Development Bank, it demonstrates operational risk measurement of our banking using Basic Indicator Approach and Income Model of bottom-up. And by comparing its effects with analysis result of concrete loss incidents of operational risk, it is approved that to apply operational risk measurement to our banking is feasibility. Finally, the paper analyzes difficulties to measure operational risk, such as weak consciousness of measuring operational risk, short of effective modern measuring model, behindhand of loss data collection and lack of perfect inside management mechanism of measurement, and then gives some advices.

接着总结了操作风险度量方法的发展演进过程，对目前度量操作风险的两类主流方法&自下而上&法和&自上而下&法进行了详细的分析和比较，分别选取&自下而上&的损失分布法和&自上而下&的收入模型法展开深入研究，并剖析了操作风险度量方法面临的主要挑战；接着以&浦东发展银行&和&深圳发展银行&为例，选用&自上而下&的基本指标法和收入模型法进行了操作风险度量的实证分析，并将分析结果与使用具体损失事件的实际操作风险分析结果进行了比较，证实了操作风险度量方法应用于我国的可行性；最后文章对我国银行业度量操作风险中存在的现实困难进行了深入探讨，指出了我国存在操作风险度量认识障碍、缺乏适用的现代操作风险度量模型、损失数据收集工作滞后以及操作风险度量缺乏完善的内部管理机制保证四大方面的现实问题，并提出了对策建议。

Secondly,from aspects of marketing,interest rate and exchange rate,ticket sale,venue change and usage after games,and hidden cost,market risk of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games has been estimated.

本文从4个方面对北京2008奥运会财务风险进行了评估，一是从损失概率与损失幅度2个维度确立了风险评估的指标；二是从市场营销、利率与汇率、门票销售、场馆调整及赛后利用、隐性指出等方面对北京奥运会的市场风险进行了评估；三是从财产风险、人身风险、责任风险、赛事取消风险等间接方面进行了财务风险评估；四是利用风险评价图对北京奥运会的各类财务风险进行了评价。

I am accused of being overreligious," she said in her quiet, frank manner,"but that does not prevent me thinking the children very cruel who obstinately commit such suicide.""

客人们在卡罗利娜·埃凯家里，举止就文雅一些，因为卡罗利娜的母亲治家很严厉。

Designed by French fashion house Herm è s, this elegant uniform was manufactured in our home, Hong Kong, and was the first without a hat.

由著名品牌 Herm è s 设计，这件高贵的制服是香港本土制造，是我们第一套不配帽子的制服。