预测

First, the traffic flow time series chaotic feature is extracted by chaos theory. pretreatment for traffic flow time series, and the wavelet neural networks model was build by this. Second, the chaotic mechanism and the chaotic probability is described. Based on chaotic learning algorithm, and the wavelet neural networks fast learning algorithm of traffic flow time series is designed based on chaotic algorithm. Last, a single-step and multi-step prediction of traffic flow chaotic time series is researched by BP neural networks, wavelet neural networks and wavelet neural networks based on chaotic algorithm. The results showed that the wavelet neural networks predictive performance is better than the BP networks and the wavelet neural networks by the simulation results and root-mean-square value.

首先，通过混沌理论提取了交通流量时间序列的混沌特征，并在此基础上建立了小波神经网络交通流量时间序列模型；接着，阐述了混沌学习算法的混沌机理、混沌产生的概率，设计了基于混沌算法的小波神经网络交通流量混沌时间序列快速学习算法；最后利用交通流量混沌时间序列对BP网络、非混沌算法的小波神经网络以及基于混沌算法的小波神经网络进行了单步预测和多步预测，并对预测结果的仿真图和真实值与预测值的方均根进行了比较，结果表明基于混沌学习算法的小波神经网络的预测性能明显优于应用BP网络和非混沌算法的小波神经网络。

In the empirical study, we find that conventional tests over reject the null when the event forecasts and event realization of all countries have high serial correlation, which means the event forecasts have the timing ability. According to the evidence of sample correlation coefficient, however, it seems that the event forecasts have no timing ability by using these the HAC robust tests.

尔后，利用实际的资料，考虑六个国家股票市场每月之报酬率发现，所有国家在事件预测值与事件实现值存在高度的序列相关下，传统检定方法出现了过度拒绝虚无假设的结果，认为事件预测值具有预测能力；而考虑序列相关问题的检定方法则认为事件预测值不具有预测能力。

On this basis, according to historical data, apply ANN and differential simulation method to get the quantitatively correlative relations between each production and its own influence factors, and introduce the new methods of prediction for dynamic indexes with gas-field development (The combinatorial prediction method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the method of ANN to select optimally combinatorial prediction models and the ANN prediction method based on genetic algorithm).(2) Base on mathematical programming, combine with quantitative economics and techno-economics, introduce economical indexes to establish production"s distribution optimal model, production"s constitution optimal model and measured production"s constitution optimal model, including multi-objective models and five-years models. Upon this, the optimal project for all gas field and each gas-collected factory can be got. Also, introduce the time value of capitals to improve on these models.(3) Base on the optimal solution theory and algorithm theory for the nonlinear programming problem, introduce the SUMT algorithm and genetic algorithm to study how to solve the models, and on the basis of normal genetic algorithm, make use of auto-adaptively modulating method to improve on normal genetic algorithm; Base on algorithm"s convergence theory and calculation"s complexity theory to analyze seriatim SUMT algorithm"s convergence and genetic algorithms convergence, and compare performance with each other.

在此基础上，利用神经网络方法和微分模拟方法根据历史数据得到各分项产量与其影响因素之间的定量关联关系，并引入气田开发动态指标新的预测方法(基于模糊综合评判的组合预测方法、神经网络优选组合预测模型预测方法以及基于遗传优化的神经网络预测方法)；(2)以数学规划为基础，结合数量经济学和技术经济学，引入经济指标建立产量分配优化模型、产量构成优化模型、措施产量构成优化模型、气田开发多目标规划模型以及五年规划模型，进而获得全气田及各采气厂的最优方案，并引入资金时间价值对五年规划模型进行改进；(3)以非线性规划问题的最优解及算法理论为基础，引入SUMT算法以及遗传算法对模型的求解进行研究，并在原有的遗传算法基础上，引入自适应调整方法对遗传算法进行改进；以算法的收敛性理论和计算复杂性理论为基础，逐一分析SUMT算法以及遗传算法的收敛性，并比较三种算法的优劣性。

Spectral efficiency equations are derived for both systems with and without channel prediction. Numerical results show that systems with channel prediction can get maximum spectral efficiency while systems without channel prediction but chosen optimum packet length can get suboptimum frequency efficiency, which is inversely proportional to Doppler frequency.

推导了信道预测和没有信道预测的自适应调制系统的频谱效率公式，分析结果表明对于自适应调制系统，信道预测的系统频谱效率是最优的，非信道预测系统根据信道情况选择最优帧长可以获得该系统的最优系统频谱效率，但它是低于信道预测的频谱效率的，而且是随多普勒频率的增大而逐渐减小的。

Experiments with sunspot activity data show that the method is better than traditional forecasting approaches and neural network approaches,and can be applied to forecasting of some no...

对年平均太阳黑子数的预测结果表明，该方法比传统的时间序列预测方法和神经网络预测方法的预测精度高，可以很好地应用于某些非平稳时间序列的预测中

The experimental results show that this presented model obtains better results than that of the Naive B Bayesian, the Random forest, and the NNge predietion models when the high and low severity faults and the ungraded severity fault are distinguished.

实验结果表明，与基于朴素贝叶斯的预测模型、随机预测模型和NNge预测模型相比，本文提出的预测模型对于高严重程度故障、低严重程度故障以及未划分故障严重程度的情形均获得较好的预测效果。

Based on consider hereinbefore, this dissertation discusses several aspects on the problem of the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources as follows:①reviewed entirely the origin and evolvement of the concept "sustainable development", stated and commented the study status in queue on"sustainable development"around national and international range, thorough discussed the science connotation about the concept "sustainable development";②looked back and commented across-the aboard some furthest basic concept and proposition related to groundwater resources, put forward self opinions on a few existent mistake points of view and chaos understandings;③expatiated entirely on the content and meaning of the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, contrast with the traditional methods of groundwater resources calculation and evaluation, combined example to show the application of this theory;④thorough analyzed the difficult and complexity to forecast the groundwater resources, fully stated the traditional methods of groundwater resources forecasting, pointed out the characteristic and applying condition of these forecasting method, introduced the main ideas and methods of wavelet analysis developed recently, and the MATLAB software be known as the fifths era computer language, and its accessory wavelet analysis toolbox, applied these methods and tools to analyze the groundwater dynamic curve, adopted the B-J method and Morte-Carlo method, combined with the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, discussed the new view on the forecast of groundwater resources;⑤synthetically analyzed the characteristics and limitations of the present all kind of groundwater manage model, combined mathematical programming, mathematical statistics, random process and the theory of variation system of groundwater resources on the unite optimum attempter of surface water and groundwater, emphasized how to make the model more nicety, more simple, more practicality;⑥analyzed the inside condition and outside condition to assure the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources, the inside conditions are the follows: correct resources idea, scientific methods of resources calculation and evaluation, credible forecast methods of resources, exercisable measures of resources management, the outside conditions are the follows: the development idea of high layer, the transform of manage system, the matched policy and rule of law, the adjusted of economy lever, the improve of cultural diathesis, the boosting up of water-saving consciousness and detail measures, the control of population rising, the prevention and cure of water pollute, the renew and rebuild of ecology;⑦scan the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources from the high level of metagalaxy, earth system science, and philosophy;⑧point out the more directions on groundwater resources.

它将为制定水资源的可持续发展目标和战略决策提供科学依据，为制定社会、经济可持续发展战略提供理论基础。基于以上考虑，论文主要从以下几方面对地下水资源可持续开发问题进行了比较深入的探讨：①全面回顾了&可持续发展&概念的由来与演变，对国内外&可持续发展&的研究现状进行了述评，并对&可持续发展&概念的科学内涵进行了深入探讨；②对涉及地下水资源的一些最基本的概念和命题进行了全面的回顾和评述，对目前仍然存在的一些错误观点和混乱认识提出了自己的见解；③全面阐述了地下水资源变值系统理论的内容和意义，并与传统的地下水资源计算评价方法进行了对比分析，结合实例具体说明了方法的应用；④深入分析了地下水资源预测预报工作的极端重要性和复杂性，对传统的地下水资源动态预测方法进行了全面的评述，指出了各类预测预报方法的特点及适用条件，对最近二十多年刚发展起来的小波分析技术的主要思想和方法及其应用范围，以及号称第五代计算机语言的MATLAB软件和附带的小波分析工具箱进行了介绍，并应用于地下水动态过程线的分析，采用时间序列中的B-J法，蒙特卡罗方法，与地下水资源变值系统理论相结合，探讨了地下水动态资料分析和地下水资源预测预报的新思路；⑤综合分析了现今各类地下水管理模型的特点及缺陷，将数学规划、数理统计、随机过程等与地下水变值系统理论相结合进行地表水地下水或多水源的联合优化调度，使模型更准确、更实用；⑥对保证地下水资源可持续开发的内部条件和外部条件进行了分析，内部条件主要是正确的资源观，科学的资源计算与评价方法，可靠的资源预测预报技术，可操作的资源管理措施，外部条件主要是高层发展思路、管理体制的变革、配套的政策法规、经济杠杆的调节、人文素质的提高、节水意识的增强及具体节水措施、人口增长的控制、水体污染的防治、生态的恢复和重建等；⑦从宇宙科学、地球系统科学及哲学的高度审视地下水资源的可持续开发；⑧指出了地下水资源可持续开发的进一步研究方向。

Language. The result show that outburst coal structure can be divided according to features of geology, logging and physical mechanics; according to basic features and mechanism of gas outburst, with geology factors, mathematical geology model predicting gas content, emission and outburst can be established by quantification theory; the result of prediction for gas danger in Huainan Pansan mine by predicting model is relatively reliable, and the weaved map of gas geology can meet the need of production; the design of gas danger prediction software make prediction more convenient and fleeter.

结果表明，根据突出煤体的地质、测井和物理力学特征可以划分突出煤体结构；根据瓦斯突出的基本特征和机理，采用地质因素，利用数量化理论可以建立瓦斯含量、涌出量及突出预测的数学地质模型；利用预测模型对淮南潘三矿瓦斯危险性的预测结果较为可靠，编制的瓦斯地质图可以满足生产的要求；瓦斯危险性预测软件的开发使预测更为便捷和快速。

Aiming at the major influencing factor of the logistics cost of coal enterprise as well as the non-linear characteristic of the coal enterprise logistics cost and the superiority that the neural network has in the solution of complex nonlinear system question, propos to use the BP neural network to do the forecasting of the logistics cost, establishs the forecast model of the logistics cost and do simulation and forecasting by frondose dates, the result indicates the precision of this forecast method is high, the convergent rate is quick, is one feasible forecast method.

重点针对影响煤炭企业物流成本的因素以及煤炭企业物流成本所具有的非线性特点和神经网络在解决复杂非线性系统问题方面所具有的优势，提出了采用BP神经网络来进行物流成本预测的方法。建立了基于BP神经网络的物流成本预测模型并应用具体数据对模型进行了模拟和预测，结果表明该方法预测精度高，是一种实际可行的预测方法。

How to process it affects the equivalent prediction of the entire conductor performance. According to the traditional composite theory, the following several predictions were carried: only consider the functions of the stainless steel conduit outside the cable body, the double insulation and the double shielding layer; the influence of the flexible cable body is neglect, so only consider the function of its internal helium tube; the material nature of the cable body is assumed the isotropism, which the elasticity modulus is 1-10 GPa (here taking 2 GPa); combining the homogenization theory with the composite damage theory.

在传统复合材料理论的基础上，对ITER超导电流传输线导体等效弹性模量进行理论预测：预测一，只考虑电缆体外的不锈钢导管、双绝缘和双屏蔽层；预测二，忽略柔性电缆体的影响，但考虑其内部氦管；预测三，假设电缆体呈各向同性，弹性模量取1～10 GPa；预测四，利用均匀化理论分析电缆体的等效弹性模量，复合材料损伤理论分析超导电缆与中心氦管之间、电缆复合体和不锈钢导管之间界面情况。

In the United States, chronic alcoholism and hepatitis C are the most common ones.

在美国，慢性酒精中毒，肝炎是最常见的。

If you have any questions, you can contact me anytime.

如果有任何问题，你可以随时联系我。