预测

The weighted moving average method and GM(1,1) model to forecast the sales of electric energy in North China Power Grid respectively are used,then the forecast result by the way of the Matlab software is given.

为提高电网负荷预测的准确率，分别运用加权移动平均预测技术和GM(1，1)模型对华北电网的售电量进行了预测，借助Matlab软件，得到了预测结果。

This paper is to mainly discuss the following problems which are diffieult to be solved in commodity freight volume forecast for a period of time: Variable choice and multiple coorelations; Application of the principles of combining quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis; Selection of the remarkable variables by using Multistep Regression Method; Establishment of reasonable freight volume forecast model.

本文针对总货运量预测中较难解决的问题——变量选择和多重共线性，运用定性和定量相结合原则利用逐步回归方法定量挑选显著性变量，建立理想的货运量预测模型。此外，本文在评介货流研究一般方法基础上，根据多地区货物交流目的，探讨了货流预测的方法，提出用Frator法预测货流。

The concept and the classification of forecasting are addressed. Aiming at the disadvantages of the current forecasting models, such as requirement for more data and narrow application extent, an improved GM(1,1)-transfer function-noise model for forecasting is proposed. In the first stage, the GM(1,1) model improving the generation method of neighborhood system is adopted so as to fulfil the forecasting by only using a few of data.

介绍了预测的概念与分类；针对现有产品回收预测模型数据需求量大和适用范围窄的不足，提出了改进GM(1，1)/传递函数噪声两阶段预测模型；产品回收初期数据缺乏，主要采用改进了邻域系生成方法的IGM(1，1)模型，从而实现少量数据情况下的准确预测。

After discussing the non-linear characteristic of the investment risk series, the thesis investigates several forecasting methods for non-linear risk series including AR model, ARCH model and neural network model.

本文在探讨了证券投资风险时间序列非线性特征的基础上，研究了包括AR模型，ARCH方差补偿型预测模型和神经网络预测模型在内的各种非线性风险预测方法以及组合预测方法。

The paper commencing with analyses of the basic property of the hydrate, structure and sort, analyzes micro kinetics, formation condition, gas hydrate formation mechanism and influencing factor in high sulfur; also proceed analysis in depth for existent hydrate prediction model; according to gas dissolving, hydrate lattice deformation, synergistic action of inhibitor, carry out analytical study for existent error between normal forecast model and physical condition; introduce key parameter theory to establish and modify prediction model of hydrate formation condition to suit for high sulfur gas reservoir and inhibitor system, analyses different kinds of prevention and cure measures to influence of hydrate; finally, through field application in high sulfur gas reservoir hydrate.

本文从分析水合物的基本性质、结构与分类出发，分析了水合物生成过程中的微观动力学、生成条件、高含硫天然气水合物生成机理以及影响因素；并对现行的水合物预测模型进行了深入剖析，根据气体溶解、水合物晶格变形、抑制剂协同作用等因素对常规预测模型与实际条件之间存在的误差进行了分析研究；通过引入关键参数理论，建立并改进了适合高含硫气藏水合物生成条件预测模型及抑制剂体系的高含硫水合物生成条件预测模型，分析了各种防治措施对水合物的影响；最后通过高含硫气藏水合物实例计算，分析了含硫化氢、二氧化碳组分的天然气与常规气体对水合物生成条件的影响，并对各种水合物防治措施进行了实例计算。

After dealing with the CT image of pedicle screw with interpolation numberical method, for pedicle screw of gradeⅠ,CT had a positive predictive value of 52.7%, a negative predictive value of 94%.,a sensitivity of 67% and a specificity of 94%; for pedicle screw of gradeⅡ, CT had a positive predictive value of 75%, a negative predictive value of 100%.,a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 94%.

结果：采用"低窗位、高窗宽"原则处理CT影像后，CT对于Ⅰ度椎弓根螺钉的敏感度为33%、特异度为87%、阳性预测值为32%、阴性预测值为88%。CT 对于Ⅱ度椎弓根螺钉的敏感度为100%、特异度为88％、阳性预测值为60%、阴性预测值为100%。Kapper值为0.603。

The regression analysis indicated that syntactic awareness was the only predictor of word reading and sentence reading comprehension, the strong predictor of text comprehension Phonological awareness was a significant predictor of text comprehension. Working memory was not a significant predicator for all reading tasks.

回归分析发现，英语句法意识对不同层次阅读都具有最显著的预测作用，但英语语音意识只对短文阅读理解有显著预测作用，工作记忆对不同层次阅读的预测都不显著，表明英语句法意识是初一学生英语阅读的重要预测变量。

In the first part of passage, the author explain some base concepts such as information law and the prediction of infor

主要对信息法学和信息法律预测作了简单的介绍，提出信息法律预测的重要作用，总结了信息法律预测的主要方法以及预测中要注意的问题，这些方法也是本文所采用的主要方法。第二章

Then the result will accord with fact.(3) According to the network data and power supply data provided by A power company, this dissertation forecasts power supply of the power company and 12 presidial power supply bureaus in 2006 first. Second, make use of the BP ANN to forecast the base quantity of line loss rate of 12 power supply bureaus and A power company in 2006. Then modify the base quantity by the amount of some items.

3以A市电网的数据为例，首先结合常规负荷预测的单耗法和弹性系数法，来预测2006年A市电力公司和所属12个供电局的供电量；然后再用论文的神经网络方法来预测2006年12个供电局和电力公司的线损率；最后对影响线损率的主要规划项目进行定量线损分析，并将其用来修正神经网络预测结果。

The results indicated:（1）the combination of the Markov and spatial logistic models can improve the predictability of each model individually. In macroscopic scale, the total land use amount can be predicted via Markov chain; in microscopic scale, the multi-class multinomial logistic model can be used to implement the combined calculations of categorical variable and continuous variable, qualitative variable and quantitative variable to improve the precision of spatial regression. Meanwhile, the transition probability of each land use unit will be confirmed and the prediction of land use spatial distribution will also be completed.（2）the application system developed in accordance with the integrated model can effectively simulate and predict the land use evolution in Shenzhen City, and the prediction precision of verification system will suffice for recent land use monitoring and the making of annual land supply planning.

研究结果：（1）空间Logistic和Markov模型集成可提升单一模型的应用能力，宏观上利用Markov Chain进行土地利用规模总量预测，微观上利用多分类Multinomial Logistic模型解决分类变量与连续变量，定性变量和定量变量的联合解算提高空间回归精度，同时可以确定每一个土地利用单元转移概率，实现土地利用空间分布的预测；（2）基于集成模型开发出的应用系统能够有效仿真和预测深圳市土地利用演化，通过验证系统预测精度能够满足近期土地利用预警和年度土地供应计划编制。

In the United States, chronic alcoholism and hepatitis C are the most common ones.

在美国，慢性酒精中毒，肝炎是最常见的。

If you have any questions, you can contact me anytime.

如果有任何问题，你可以随时联系我。