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However, the main reason is quite likely the continuing degeneration of social values.

然而,主要原因很可能是不断贬值的社会价值。

Unfortunately, that may well prove temporary: first, your stimulus programme, with its reliance on massive credit expansion, may prove unsustainable; second, the decline in China's trade surplus is largely the result of the crisis-induced collapse in world trade; and, third and most important, China has embarked on currency deprecation by locking the renminbi to the falling dollar.

不幸的是,这种缩减很可能只是暂时的:首先,贵国的刺激方案依赖于大规模信贷扩张,可能难以维续;其次,中国贸易顺差的减少,主要是金融危机导致的世界贸易萎缩的结果;最后一点,也是最重要的一点,由于钉住了不断贬值的美元,人民币也在贬值。

Though when compared with the record of a year or two before, the overall record of world currency depreciations was more moderate; the American dollar in 1977 was depreciating at an annual rate of 6 percent, the French franc of 8.6 percent, the Japanese yen of 9.1 percent, the Swedish krone of percent, the British pound of 14.5 percent, the Italian lira of 15.7 percent, and the Spanish peseta at an annual rate of 17.5 percent.

尽管与一两年前的情况相比,世界通货贬值的总体状况有所缓和,但1977年的贬值率分别是,美元6%,法国法郎8.6%,日元9.1%,瑞典克朗9.5%,英镑14.5%,意大利里拉15.7%,西班牙比塞塔则达17.5%。至于拉美国家,巴西货币单位1977年贬值30.8%,乌拉圭比索35.5%,智利比索53.9%,阿根廷比索则高达65.7%。

Certainly have not suffered loss, Li is a former British Hong Kong government is one of Li Ka-shing is indeed business Wizards, in the case of real estate are constantly rising had considered restructuring and the transfer of assets, has bought some foreign quality assets, telecommunications companies such as Germany orange shares, the New Jersey ports, the Panama Canal shares, and Hong Kong Cyberport aggressively into the building, will tentacles stretching the transformation and upgrading of telecommunications, Li Ka-shing is the only person in his fox, and many people are of the view that is Li and the former British Hong Kong government to give them weaving a better future, a beautiful dream, and Tung took office play his body more healthy, more destructive power of the strong characteristics of this beautiful dream hit a smash, this is one is caught, the onlookers-to the real estate collapse of the responsibility of all to Mr Tung who is totally unjustified, Although Mr Tung to the mainland, Beijing has followed some acts are in the eyes of some people, but to objectively evaluate, Dong is a honest kind of person, he is inadvertently let Tianzao point that the arrival and the day is certainly coming, the night time, the more devastating losses, Originally, the intention is that Mr Tung real estate prices trend eased, and then the case now almost Shanghai, prices every quarter on a 20% increase, almost all Hong Kong people have been crazy, and just opened a new development, the stage has long been ranked team to effectively alleviate this situation, the new SAR government changed in the past starvation effect of land supply policy, a substantial increase in the level of land supply in order to stabilize high land prices, while the Yuen Long, New Territories into the new City of mass construction, the expansion of public housing, housing construction plan (equivalent to our low-cost housing, economic applicable housing), if no major accident These measures should ensure that real estate to landing, but nobody thought that 98 years of financial turmoil, Hong Kong dollar devaluation Suoluosiming gambling, but the call foul silent do real estate, stock market doing transactions, the use diversionary tactics tactical let him return home with a full load, although the SAR government have been successfully defend the Hong Kong dollar does not depreciate, but the housing market and stock market watch.

当然也有没受损失的,李嘉诚算一个,前港英政府也算一个,李嘉诚不愧是商界奇才,在房地产不断攀高的情况下就已经考虑资产的转型和转移了,先后购买了一些外国的优质资产,如德国橙电信公司的股份、新泽西的港口、巴拿马运河的股份,并大张旗鼓地投入香港数码港的建设,将触角伸进香港电信的升级改造,李嘉诚做人方面堪称是只老狐狸,很多香港人都认为,是李嘉诚和前港英政府给他们编织一个美好的前程、一个美丽的梦,而小董上台后发挥他那身体越健壮、破坏力越强的特点,将这一美丽的梦击个粉碎,这正可谓是当局者迷、旁观者清,将香港房地产崩溃的责任全部归咎于董建华身上,是完全没有道理的,虽然董建华在靠近大陆、追随北京方面有些行为在港人眼里是过了一些,但客观地评价,董是一个老实厚道的人,他只不过是无意中让那一天早一点到来,而那一天是肯定会到来的,时间越晚,损失越惨重,本来董建华的初衷是希望房地产上涨的趋势有所缓解,当时香港的情形与现在的上海差不多,房价每隔一个季度就上涨20%以上,几乎所有的港人都为之疯狂,新楼盘刚开张,台前早已排起长长的队伍,为有效地缓解这一局面,新上任的特区政府一改以往饥渴效应的土地供应政策,大幅度地增加一级土地的供应,以平抑高昂的地价,同时宣布元朗、新界等新城区进入大规模建设,扩大政府公屋、居屋营建计划(相当于我们的廉租房、经济适用住房),如果没有大的意外,这些措施应该能保证房地产的缓着陆,但谁也没想到,98年的金融风暴,索罗斯明赌港币贬值、暗里却大做不动产、股市空头交易,这一声东击西的战术让他满载而归,虽然特区政府成功地实现了捍卫港币不贬值的目标,但香港的房市、股市从那一刻起,一败涂地。

He believes the value of the US dollar will decline for years to come, making cash a wasting asset that may be worth less with each passing year.

巴菲特认为美元持续数年贬值的时刻将要来临,这会使现金成为随着时光流逝而持续贬值的一种浪费的资产

In the article I wrote for Fortune 16 months ago, I warned that "a gently declining dollar would not provide the answer." And so far it hasn't. Yet policymakers continue to hope for a "soft landing," meanwhile counseling other countries to stimulate (read "inflate") their economies and Americans to save more. In my view these admonitions miss the mark: There are deep-rooted structural problems that will cause America to continue to run a huge current-account deficit unless trade policies either change materially or the dollar declines by a degree that could prove unsettling to financial markets.

在我16个月以前于财富杂志刊登的一篇文章当中,我就曾警告,持续贬值的美元并不能解决问题,到目前为止,确是如此,然而政府官员却依然希望经济能够软着路,同时敦促本国人省着点花用,其他国家刺激本国经济,在我看来这些建言都没有切中要点,除非贸易政策大幅改弦更张或是美元大幅贬值到惊天动地的程度,否则根深蒂固的结构性失衡问题仍将持续困扰金融市场的运作。

In the article I wrote for Fortune 16 months ago, I warned that "a gently declining dollar would not provide the answer." And so far it hasn't. Yet policymakers continue to hope for a "soft landing," meanwhile counseling other countries to stimulate (read "inflate") their economies and Americans to save more. In my view these admonitions miss the mark: There are deep-rooted structural problems that will cause America to continue to run a huge current-account deficit unless trade policies either change materially or the dollar declines by a degree that could prove unsettling to financial markets.

在我 16 个月以前于财富杂志刊登的一篇文章当中,我就曾警告,持续贬值的美元并不能解决问题,到目前为止,确是如此,然而政府官员却依然希望经济能够软着路,同时敦促本国人省着点花用,其它国家刺激本国经济,在我看来这些建言都没有切中要点,除非贸易政策大幅改弦更张或是美元大幅贬值到惊天动地的程度,否则根深蒂固的结构性失衡问题仍将持续困扰金融市场的运作。

The anticipation that a devaluation might occur may lead financial markets to require higher interest rates, compounding the effects of an overvaluation with high interest rates and possibly forcing a devaluation, even if the government initially had no intention of devaluating.

对贬值可能发生的预期会导致金融市场需要更高的利率,再混合过高估价和高利率的影响,很有可能引发货币贬值,即使政府最初并没有贬值的意思。

Meanwhile, the Americans allowed the dollar to plunge in value. That angered the Chinese, which keeps most of its $1.76 trillion in foreign reserves in dollars. Chinese officials have accused the Americans of mismanaging the dollar at a time when Washington is still pressing China to appreciate the renminbi to narrow the trade deficit.

同时,美国也允许了美元贬值,这激怒了中国,因为中国的1.76万亿美元的外汇储备大部分都是以美元的形式储备的,中国官员们认为在美国对中国施压要求人民币升值来减少其贸易赤字之时却让美元大幅贬值的做法是不应该的。

If investors expect devaluations every three months, they argue, they will buy dollars and wait for the next one.

如果投资者们预期到货币贬值会每三个月发生一次,他们就会购买美元并且等待下一次贬值的到来。

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