货币

Then positively ana.lyzed transmission effect of monetary policy of China in recent years, and with relative theories, discussed rr~ore deeply the existing principal problems on transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in our state under the realistic institutional situation of economy and finance:(1)Monetary policy tools lag behind the economic and financil background;(2)Separated and uneven money markets, the lack of transaction agents and defect in the relation between money markets and c~potal markets, have rendered the transaction of monetary policy lack on effective channel;(3)over-speculating, illegal operation and insufficient competition have severely weakened the transmission fumction;(4) systematic defect of state -owned commercial bank, asymmetry between financial and economic composition have made monetary policy lose an effective carrier;(5) factors beyond the financial system, such as soft cornstraint over state - owned enterprises policy decision, imperfect social insurance system, etc.

接下来对我国近年来的货币政策传导效果进行了实证分析，在此基础上运用相关传导机制理论并结合我国实际经济、金融制度与环境论述了我国当前货币政策传导机制的主要问题：（1）货币政策工具相对于经济、金融环境显得落后；（2）货币市场的分割、不平衡、交易主体不全以及货币市场与资本市场的联系机制缺位使得货币政策缺乏一个有效的场所；（3）资本市场特别是股票市场的过渡投机、违规操作以及不充分竞争严重地削弱了证券市场的传导功能；（4）国有商业银行现行体制的缺陷，金融结构与经济结构的非对称使得货币政策传导受阻；(5)金融体系外的因素（如国企决策行为软约束、社会保障制度不健全）。

Then positively ana.lyzed transmission effect of monetary policy of China in recent years, and with relative theories, discussed rr~ore deeply the existing principal problems on transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in our state under the realistic institutional situation of economy and finance:(1)Monetary policy tools lag behind the economic and financil background;(2)Separated and uneven money markets, the lack of transaction agents and defect in the relation between money markets and c~potal markets, have rendered the transaction of monetary policy lack on effective channel;(3)over-speculating, illegal operation and insufficient competition have severely weakened the transmission fumction;(4) systematic defect of state -owned commercial bank, asymme try between financial and economic composition have made monetary policy lose an effective carrier;(5) factors beyond the financial system, such as soft cornstraint over state - owned enterprises' policy decision, imperfect social insurance system, etc.

接下来对我国近年来的货币政策传导效果进行了实证分析，在此基础上运用相关传导机制理论并结合我国实际经济、金融制度与环境论述了我国当前货币政策传导机制的主要问题：（1）货币政策工具相对于经济、金融环境显得落后；（2）货币市场的分割、不平衡、交易主体不全以及货币市场与资本市场的联系机制缺位使得货币政策缺乏一个有效的场所；（3）资本市场特别是股票市场的过渡投机、违规操作以及不充分竞争严重地削弱了证券市场的传导功能；（4）国有商业银行现行体制的缺陷，金融结构与经济结构的非对称使得货币政策传导受阻；(5)金融体系外的因素（如国企决策行为软约束、社会保障制度不健全）。

At the beginning, it was substantial money acting as the intermediary of transactions. Then it developed to be token money, In the 1970s, the Bretton Woods Regime collapsed. Us dolor wasn"t related to gold and gold didn"t serve as money. Money gradually changed its form from token money to credit money, totally abstract value symbol. At the end of the 20th century, the development of science and technology and the speed of economic integration have accelerated.

从最初充当交换媒介的实物货币，发展到了铸币和银行券——代用货币。20世纪70年代，随着布雷顿森林体系瓦解，美元脱离黄金、黄金非货币化，货币也逐渐从价值实体向完全抽象的价值符号——信用货币进行转变。20世纪末，随着科学技术的发展和经济一体化进程的加快，货币形态演变的速度也在加快，人类社会正经历着从纸币向电子货币过渡的重要时期。

In according to the self-circulating of money , money is money, it does not point out the material of money. Electronic money shows its value with numeral, and uses the data encryption system to protect itself from falsifier. As long as the numeral of material is decided by users, electronic money will become a real money with anonymity, transferability and relativity.

根据货币自我循环论证，货币就是货币，并未指出货币的素材，电子货币可以数码表示其价值，利用暗码技术可达到防伪功能，只要素材数码由使用者自行决定，电子货币满足构成货币的三要素，成为真正的货币，具匿名性、移转性与相对性。

And then the author gains his conclusion through the functions of the money: the functions of measure of values and The Medium of Circulation make money become"comprehensive medium"and"social authority".The function of hoarding makes the elimination of individuality. And the function of universal Money makes the elimination of individuality become global.

其次，通过对货币职能的分析得出结论：货币之所以能够成为全面的媒介并具有了社会权力，是因为其价值尺度和流通手段职能；货币能够对人个性消弭产生影响则是因为货币的贮藏职能，而货币成为世界货币则导致货币权力和对人的个性的消弭成为全球性的。

The right choice of the tool variables of the monetary policy is most significant for the control of the base currency in quantity and for the formation of the currency supply as well. Regulating the base currency should not only stress on the rediscount and the total amount of foreign exchange transaction, but also on the choice of the variables of the rediscount in accordance with the short-term result of the policy tools.

实证还显示我国货币乘数与除基础货币以外的其它因素具有长期的稳定关系，通过短期动态方程预测了样本期外的货币乘数，为中央银行预知货币乘数的变动规律提供了依据，也为有效控制基础货币创造了条件。3、货币政策工具变量的合理选择对基础货币量的控制直至货币供应量的形成具有至关重要的意义。

Among them, the long term interest rate is chosen as the intermediary target by Keynes school, and money supply chosen by Monetarism, the interest rate chosen by horizontalism with consideration that the interest rate elasticity of the monetary demand is very high, and William Poole thinks that the choice of intermediary s targets must depend on two factors: First is which is more unstable between the actual economy and money. Second is the slope of IS and LM curve.

现将每章的主要内容分述如下：论文第一章对货币政策中介目标国内外的理论作了一个研究综述，提出理论界在选择货币政策中介目标方面的不同观点，其中国外有：凯恩斯主义认为应将长期利率作为中介目标，货币学派认为应将货币供应量作为货币政策的中介目标，普尔认为中介目标的选择必须取决于两个因素：一是实际领域和货币领域哪个部门更不稳定，二是IS和LM曲线的斜率；水平主义理论主张，在货币需求的利率弹性很高的前提下，利率也就成为货币政策的中介目标。

Secondly,based on the sense of money equilibrium and AO-test technique,this paper recalculates the degree of excess money,and finds that there exits greater degree excess money during 1979 to 2007,but the degree has been dropped greatly since 1990s.

从&超额货币&的内涵来看，其不仅包括执行流通手段职能的货币量，而且还应该包括执行贮藏等各种职能的货币量；第二是采用供求均衡意义上的&超额货币&程度的算法，在变量中引入制度及虚拟经济发展的因素，在方法中采用AO检验法对长期因素做了阶段性划分，并在此基础上运用协整检验法对我国的&超额货币&程度进行了测算，结果发现在1979年-2007年间，我国的确存在着较大规模的超额货币，但是，在20世纪90年代之后，我国的超额货币程度出现了较大幅度的下降；第三是采用阶段分析法对我国超额货币的引致原因进行了实证分析，检验结果显示，货币化、虚拟经济的发展和边际消费倾向的变化都在不同程度上造成了我国超额货币程度发生变化，其中：货币化在1979-1990年间和1991-2007年间对&超额货币&程度的影响方向是相反的，虚拟经济的发展与&超额货币&程度的变动具有反向的影响，货币结构的变化对&超额货币&程度的变动具有正向影响，而居民消费对&超额货币&程度在1979-1990年间无显著影响，但是在1990-2007年间有正向的影响；第四是对&超额货币&程度的变化对我国经济金融的影响进行了理论和实证分析，结果显示：&超额货币&程度的变化对我国的经济增长、物价和汇率的变动都有着较为明显的影响，其中，对物价和汇率的影响是正向的，对经济增长的影响在长短期是不一致的。

This paper includes several parts: first, some important concepts of the thesis have been defined, a theoretical overview of currency crisis has been finished; then, we have described the history of the international monetary system; later, three chapes have been arranged to discuss the mechanism of currency crisis under fixed and floating and intermediate exchange rate system respectively. The part of the fixed exchange rate system mainly includes the analysis of the collapse of the international gold standard system, the Bretton Woods system and the the European Monetary System; in the part of the floating exchange rate system, the volatility problem under freely floating exchange rate system has been studied; the part of the intermediate exchange rate system mainly includes the analysis of currency crises in regional dollar standard system and the currency board system. And finally, we have analysed the inevitability of the appearance of new type regional monetary cooperation patterns, and how these cooperations avoid currency crises.

本文主要包括这样几部分：首先，对论文中涉及到的重要概念给予界定，并对货币危机理论进行系统梳理；接着，按时间顺序从总体上回忆国际货币制度的历史演进；然后，用三个章节分别研究了固定汇率制度、浮动汇率制度以及中间汇率制度下货币危机的形成机理，其中，固定汇率制度下的货币危机主要包括国际金本位制度和布雷顿森林体系的崩溃，以及欧洲货币体系的瓦解；浮动汇率制度下的货币危机，则重点分析了自由浮动汇率制度下汇率的过度波动问题；中间汇率制度下的货币危机，分别分析了区域美元本位及货币局制度下货币危机的发生机理；最后，分析了目前新型区域货币合作模式出现的必然性，及各模式下如何规避货币危机。

This article from an euro started at Euro sector finance system vicissitude and the Euro sector Taylor rule utilization to the European central bank policy-making formulation, through detailed thoroughly analyzes the Taylor rule to contain at the beginning ofEuropean Union in the Euro sector application -unification monetarypolicy decision-making the monetary policy background, the utilization"the Taylor principle" analyzes 1970-2006 beginning of the year EuropeCentral Bank the monetary policy decision-making tendency, pointed outmoves towards the negotiable securities along with the financialsystem, the internationalization, the formulation and the currentpolitical situation adapt the monetary policy is inevitable.

2002年1月1日零时，随着布鲁塞尔皇宫设置的欧元倒计时钟钟声的敲响，欧元正式进入流通，欧元区12国比利时、意大利、荷兰、芬兰、德国、奥地利、法国、西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰、卢森堡和希腊缔结的空前的货币联盟正式开始运作，标志着欧洲甚至全世界己不可逆转地跨入欧元时代在资本主义发源地、发达国家聚集的欧洲，各主权国家让渡货币发行权而发行统一的区域货币，并建立区域性货币的超国家统一管理机构—欧洲中央银行，这是人类货币金融史上的首次勇敢尝试，必将对世界经济特别是国际货币体系和国际金融格局产生一系列重大而深远的影响其中作为欧洲经济和货币一体化进程的必然产物，欧元从诞生几年来的运行来看基本上是成功的：欧洲中央银行调控欧元的能力大大增强；欧元的影响力在逐渐扩大；欧元区经济整体运行良好，虽然欧元诞生后对美元的汇率走势并不稳定，但欧元所以表现出的强大的生命力和对国际政治，经济领域的影响不应为人们所忽视

Neither the killing of Mr Zarqawi nor any breakthrough on the political front will stop the insurgency and the fratricidal murders in their tracks.

在对危险的南部地区访问时，他斥责什叶派民兵领导人对中央集权的挑衅行为。

In fact,I've got him on the satellite mobile right now.

实际上 我们已接通卫星可视电话了