置信系数

Meanwhile, it could be seen that there does not exist a confidence interval with width less than 0.5 because of the property of Poisson distribution. Based on these conditions, the author mainly carried out research into two aspects of this problem as follows. Firstly, by numerical and theoretical analysis, the author compares some existent confidence intervals, for example,"exact" confidence interval, Wald confidence interval and Bayesian confidence interval, and finds some deficiencies points of the confidence intervals, whose modification version has been proposed .Also, several better confidence intervals such asare also presented .Secondly, for given confidence coefficient and interval width, the author constructs a class of asymptotical two-stage interval estimate procedures. At the same time, under varies restriction of confidence coefflcientent interval width, the optional sample size of the first stage has been computed by numerical computation. The numerical computation shows that the method considered in this dissertation have good properties and applied value.

同时，由于Poisson分布的特性，我们知道不存在其参数区间长度小于0.5的置信区间，基于这些情况，我们主要展开了以下两个方面的研究：一是利用数值计算分析与理论分析的方法对现有的若干置信区间如"精确"置信区间，Wald置信区间，Bayes置信区间等进行分析比较，发现了一些缺陷，针对这些缺陷，我们进行适当的修正，并得到几种性质较好的置信区间如：修正大样本区间Jeffreys原则下置信区间二是针对已给定的置信系数与区间长度，我们提出了一种渐近的两阶段区间估计程序，并利用数值计算的方法，在各种置信系数与区间长度限定下，算出了最优的第一阶段观测次数，大量数据表明，本文考虑的方法性态良好，具有应用价值。

How likely the interval is to contain the parameter is determined by the confidence level or confidence coefficient.

置信程度或置信系数决定了区间将在何种程度上涵括参数。

The definitions of confidence coefficient and equivalent variance are introduced to indicate the feedback quality,and their closed expressions are derived under the practical environment with both feedback delay and feedback error.

对于实际中反馈时延和反馈误差同时存在的情况，推导了表征反馈质量的置信系数和等价方差的通用闭式表达，将现有只存在反馈时延或反馈误差下的结果扩展到一般情况。

Based on the relationship between the risk-aversion coefficient and the confidence level in VaR, liquidity-adjusted VaR at any confidence level was obtained.

由于投资者风险偏好系数和VaR下的置信概率水平具有一一对应关系，可以通过最优路径集下执行成本的期望和标准差组合曲线来获得不同置信概率下，经过流动性调整后的VaR。

The the probabilistic forecasting method of the error between the sample mean and expectation value of the random variable utilizing the central limit theory was researched, then the mathematical formula for the relation between sampling size and variance coefficient of loss of load probability was analyzed. Furthermore, the formulas for the relation between confidence intervals of variance coefficient and sampling size are deduced.

基于中心极限定理深入研究随机变量的样本均值与期望值之间误差的概率预测方法，在此基础上分析失负荷概率(loss of load probability，LOLP)指标的方差系数和样本容量之间的关系表达式，导出方差系数给定时的样本容量置信区间公式及样本容量给定时的方差系数置信区间公式。

However, via intensive numerical computation, the author finds that actually some characteristic of this confidence intervals, for example, confidence coefficient, expectation width and coverage efficiency fluctuate intensely when the sample size varies given the parameter, or when the parameter varies given the sample size.

但是我们通过精细的数值计算发现，由于总体分布的离散性，这些置信区间的特性(置信系数、期望长度、覆盖效率)实际表现为当参数固定随着观测次数变化或当观测次数固定随着参数变化而发生强烈震动。

From the known inverse moment estimator ra,Give confidence level l-a,the followingsystem can be establishedThus we obtain the confidence interval of the accelerated coefficient V-V0 =At last this article testified the validity of this method by an example.

的单调性，即可得到加速系数八产、V0二的置信水平为1一a的置信区间为，汤认。一份几叭司最后举例验证方法的有效性。

According to the LC-P line of each of insecticide in the mixture and the formula of co-toxicity factor, several expected mortality and the region of additive action (expected mortality±20% expected mortality) were calculated, and according to observed mortality of mixture, the 95% confidence interval was calculated, LC-P line of expected mortality with the region of additive action and LC-P line of observed mortality with the 95% confidence interval were drawn, it was found that there was overlap between the region of additive action and 95% confidence interval and two lines crossed each other when co-toxicity coefficient was more than 100 and the co-toxicity factor was less than 20, which meant there was no significant differences between expected mortality and observed mortality, and that there was on or a few overlap between the region of additive action and 95% confidence interval when co-toxicity coefficient was more than 100 and the co-toxicity factor was more than 20 or co-toxicity coefficient was less than 100 and the co-toxicity factor was less than 20, which meant there was significant differences between expected mortality and observed mortality.

根据单剂的LC-P线和共毒因子公式，求出混剂的期望死亡率和"相加作用区间"（期望死亡率±20%期望死亡率），根据混剂的实测死亡率求出95%置信区间，画出期望LC-P线及"相加作用区间"和实测LC-P线及"95%置信区间"，发现当共毒系数大于100、共毒因子小于20时，实测LC-P线和期望LC-P线彼此交缠，期望LC-P线的"相加作用区间"和实测LC-P线的"95%置信区间"能高度重叠，表明两条LC-P线之间没有毒力差异；当共毒系数大于100、共毒因子大于20，或者共毒系数小于100、共毒因子小于-20时，实测LC-P线的"95%置信区间"和期望LC-P线的"相加作用区间"只有少量重叠或完全不重叠，体现出了实测LC-P线和期望LC-P线对供试害虫的毒力差异。

By study of the statistic characteristics of flood forecasting errors and their confidence intervals for Nushi watershed at Sanhuajian of the Yellow River and on the basis of a comparison of the precision criterion currently used for flood forecasting with the result of the error confidence interval method, it is concluded that the error of flood forecasting is of the characteristic of skew probability distribution, and that the evaluated results of forecasting errors are different by the above two methods.

因此，本文在三花间伊河卢氏流域洪水预报的基础上研究了误差置信限及误差置信限评定方法，并将误差置信限评定结果与现行水情预报精度标准[1]评定结果进行了比较。1 现行洪水预报评定方法流域洪水预报精度评定内容包括洪峰流量、峰现时间和洪量等。洪水预报误差指标有绝对误差、相对误差和确定性系数3种。预报误差小于许可误差时为合格预报。

The yield of 〓-methoxyl or m-nitrocinnamic acids obtained from methoxycarbonylmethylenephosphonates and corresponding substituted benzaldehydes in the presence of is 11% or 13% higher than that obtained from those reactions without catalyst.

〓 [注：表中ρ、〓和C为式（2-5）中的相应系数和常数；γ为相关系数，F为F比值，〓为相应系数ρ、〓和C的偏差，〓和〓为相应系数的T检验，CL为置信水平，n为相关点数。表听数据系使用BJORK'S（1967）程序于Z-80计算机上计算结果。]

This one mode pays close attention to network credence foundation of the businessman very much.

这一模式非常关注商人的网络信用基础。

Cell morphology of bacterial ghost of Pasteurella multocida was observed by scanning electron microscopy and inactivation ratio was estimated by CFU analysi.

扫描电镜观察多杀性巴氏杆菌细菌幽灵和菌落形成单位评价遗传灭活率。