置信区间

Finishing calculation of mean value, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis of Beta distribution.(2) Fitting parameters of many kinds of typical distribution and using residual deviation to evaluate fitting precision.(3) Using Beta distribution as an agreed indication distribution applied to many kinds of practical photoelectric measurement distributions.(4) Deriving theory formula of Bayes point estimation about Beta distribution parameters and mean value and standard deviation on the condition of mean square error loss function and supposed the prior distribution is uniform distribution.(5) Generating MCMC sample from post distribution by the method of Gibbs sample algorithm. Calculating bayes point estimation from sample on the condition of mean square error loss function. Calculating confidence interval by an approximate method to complete interval estimation.

本文的主要工作有：(1)解决了Beta分布参数a和b的精确计算以及均值、标准差、偏度、峰度的计算问题；(2)拟合出10余种典型分布的Beta分布的两个参数，并且采用剩余标准差评价该Beta分布的拟合精度；(3)对多种典型的光学与光电测量系统的测量分布进行了Beta分布统示表示；(4)在假设先验分布为均匀分布前提下，得到参数a和b以及均值μ和标准差σ在均方误差损失函数下的贝叶斯点估计理论计算公式；(5)利用直接抽样的Gibbs抽样算法，从后验分布中产生MCMC样本，从样本直接计算均方误差损失函数下的贝叶斯点估计，并使用一种近似方法计算其置信区间，完成区间估计。

A new computational formula of fiducial probability in consideration of sample size and subsample standard deviation is derived from the least squares principle.

利用最小二乘原理，推导出考虑样本容量和子样标准差的求解置信概率的函数，继而确定数据的置信区间，对数据进行筛选。

However, via intensive numerical computation, the author finds that actually some characteristic of this confidence intervals, for example, confidence coefficient, expectation width and coverage efficiency fluctuate intensely when the sample size varies given the parameter, or when the parameter varies given the sample size.

但是我们通过精细的数值计算发现，由于总体分布的离散性，这些置信区间的特性(置信系数、期望长度、覆盖效率)实际表现为当参数固定随着观测次数变化或当观测次数固定随着参数变化而发生强烈震动。

From the known inverse moment estimator ra,Give confidence level l-a,the followingsystem can be establishedThus we obtain the confidence interval of the accelerated coefficient V-V0 =At last this article testified the validity of this method by an example.

的单调性，即可得到加速系数八产、V0二的置信水平为1一a的置信区间为，汤认。一份几叭司最后举例验证方法的有效性。

In statistics, a confidence interval is an interval estimate of a population parameter.

在统计学里，置信区间指的是对于某一群体参数的区间估计。

This article points out several approximately arithmetic about confidence probability and confidence interval of normal distribution for evaluation of uncertainty.

本文提出了不确定度分析中常用的正态分布置信概率、置信区间的几种近似算法。

The confidence interval method and the confidence region method for the error analysis of extracted parameters are studied. The algorithm implementation of confidence analysis based on the AD technique and OOP technique is presented, which can distinguish the redundancy and the correlation of extracted parameters.

研究了模型参数误差分析的置信区间法和置信区域法，提出了置信分析在AD技术及面向对象设计基础上的算法实现，可以很好地实现了对模型参数的冗余或相关的识别。

The objective of this paper is to estimate the parameters of generalized exponential family ARMA models and construct the confidence intervals of the parameters. In this paper we divided the problem into continuous type situation and discrete type situation.

本文针对广义指数族ARMA模型，分为连续型指数族和离散型指数族两种情况讨论模型的参数估计，并运用不同的Bootstrap方法构造参数的置信区间和置信带。

Basing on the analysis of 1 dimension observation,2 dimensions and 3 dimensions points confidence region,a general formular is proposed in this paper,which can be used to calculate the semidiameter of P dimensions super space ellisposid by using some important probability distributions.

在分析一维观测量、二维和三维坐标点置信区间、区域的基础上，利用几个重要的数学分布，导出了线、面这一p维随机向量的置信区域——p维超空间误差椭球半径的计算公式，同时应用实例验证了该通式与常规公式的一致性。

In order to find simultaneous confidence intervals for finite or all the estimable functions in a normal linear model, the literature[1-3] gives us three methods: Scheffe, Bonfenoni and Tukey simultaneous confidence intervals.

在正态线性模型Y=Xβ+ε，ε～N_n(0，σ~2I)中，考虑有限个或者所有的可估函数的同时区间估计，文献[1-3]给出了三种区间，分别为Scheffe，Bonferroni和Tukey同时置信区间。

The split between the two groups can hardly be papered over.

这两个团体间的分歧难以掩饰。

This approach not only encourages a greater number of responses, but minimizes the likelihood of stale groupthink.

这种做法不仅鼓励了更多的反应，而且减少跟风的可能性。