经济周期

The former exporting safe capital by holding official foreign exchange reserves while importing risky capital through direct foreign investment, is the key to economic growth.

尽管其中的机制有别于真实经济周期理论，但是，"中性"依然应该作为宏观经济政策的基本出发点。

After studied thehistorical matter, the thesis concerned about the real economic status and foresighted the future ofthe new economy.

论文最后把目光从1929年拉回到1992年，在历史分析的基础上，以经济周期理论为依据，对新经济的内容及未来进行揭示和展望，从而实现论文的写作主旨即为现实提供借鉴。

Finally, I analysis why does Chiness business cycle formate on the base of actual conditions of China.

最后，本文根据中国经济的实际运行情况分析了中国经济周期波动的形成原因。

Put forward interzone theory on regulating credit management and interest rate, exchange rate control and liabilities rate. This paper put forward that we can flat the business cycle and keep the economy flourish longer if we can control interest rate and the rate of felling back in a section with reason.

提出信用管理与利率、汇率管制和负债率调控的区间论提出如果能够把利率和负债率控制在一个合理的动态优化的区间范围内，那么就可以熨平经济周期，使经济比较长时期地保持在繁荣状态。

However, since the life annuity is a long-term economic action, the factors of government policy and economic cycles may cause interest rate to be uncertain during the period of insurance. So the study on the theory of life annuities under random rates of interest has gradually become one of the heated and major problems of actuarial science.

但由于生存年金是一种长期的经济行为，投保期间的政府政策、经济周期等因素都会造成利率的不确定性，从而随机利率下生存年金理论的研究逐渐成为保险精算学研究的重点与热点问题之一。

And give out the length of business cycle by the corresponding relation of the tiptop of the rate of felling back and low-water mark of the economic growth rate.

并根据违约率的最高点与经济增长率的最低点的对应关系，得到经济周期的时间长度。

Key words］ financial crisis;American economy;business cycle;NBER; Markov Switching Model

关键词］金融危机；美国经济；经济周期；NBER；马尔科夫区制转换模型

We find the evidences that there is a close relationship between output volatility and nominal volatilities such as price and money supply fluctuations.

我们发现，我国经济周期波动性与价格和货币等名义经济波动性之间存在密切关系；从产出波动性的成分分解来看，产出波动性降低的主要原因源于投资波动性、政府支出波动性和净出口波动性的降低，而消费波动性继续保持平稳态势。

On the contrary, the economic theory thinks the potential output in the business cycle influenced by the fluctuates.

相反，经济理论认为潜在产出围绕受实际冲击影响的经济周期波动。

This model is a variant of Kydland and Prescott(1982),and it is quite similar toHansen(1985)and Prescott(1986a).

最后讨论了真实经济周期模型的基本特点，并与货币主义模型、早期的新古典宏观经济模型、新凯恩斯主义模型等进行比较。

The split between the two groups can hardly be papered over.

这两个团体间的分歧难以掩饰。

This approach not only encourages a greater number of responses, but minimizes the likelihood of stale groupthink.

这种做法不仅鼓励了更多的反应，而且减少跟风的可能性。