经济周期

From 1978 to 2000, there was not σ-convergence of the PGDP growth in Jiangsu province; From 1984 to 1993 and since 1999, there was not σ-convergence of the per capital net income of rural households growth, but from 1993 to 1999, there was a -convergence; From 1978 to 2000, there was not absolute β-convergence of the PGDP growth in Jiangsu province, but there was conditional β-convergence and the convergence intensity was feeble, half-lifecycle is comparative long, the least half -time of the undeveloped region will catch up with the developed region was 115 years; From 1994 to 2000, there was club-convergence hi the northern Jiangsu and the Middle Jiangsu, but there was not club-convergence in the northern Jiangsu.

第四，基于经济增长收敛的理论与方法，对江苏省区域经济发展的收敛性进行了研究。1978一2000年，江苏省人均GDP总体上不存在u一收敛；农民人均纯收入增长在1 984一1993年及1999年以后不存在a一收敛、在1993一1999期间存在a一收敛；1978-2 000年，人均GDP增长总体上不存在绝对p一收敛，但存在条件p一收敛，收敛的程度较弱，半生命周期比较长，落后区域要缩小与发达区域经济差异的一半最少也需要115年；1 994一2000年，在经济比较发达的苏南和苏中内部存在俱乐部收敛，在苏北内部不存在俱乐部收敛趋势。

Several economic theories are applied in this thesis in the quest to identify the boosters behind the transformation of Taiwan's manufacturing industry and to pinpoint some deficiencies at different major stages of Taiwan's economic development. Among them are: Kaname Akamatsu's Flying Geese Paradigm, Vernon's Theory of the Product Cycle, the Theory of International Division of Industry, Porter's Theory of Stages of Economic Development, etc.

论文中运用了赤松要的产业转移雁行理论，弗农产品生命周期理论，产业的国际分工理论，经济管理大师波特的经济发展阶段论等，在力求阐明促进台湾制造业成功转型动因的同时，也力求找出台湾在各个主要经济发展阶段的一些不足之处。

In addition to Kondratieff's economic waves, Modis adds similar 56-year cycles in scientific advances described by himself, and 56-year cycles in infrastructure replacement studied by Arnulf Grubler .

而且，除了康德拉基耶夫发现的这个经济波，莫迪斯还补充了两个类似的周期，一个是他自己提出的科学发展中的56年周期，另一个是阿诺夫·古儒柏研究的基础设施更换的56年周期。

Regional development occupies large land, develops lots of contents, relates to multifields including industry, construction, business and civicism, so it is necessary to identify its influence on nature environment such as air, groundwater quality, surface water quality and hydrological condition, sound, soil, plants, topographty and social environment such as population, traffic, economic structure. The countermeasures of carring through circular economy, controlling pollution sources, planning industrial structure scientifically, distributing reasonably, implementing cleaner production and total quantity control should be taken to promote regional sustainable development.

区域开发具有较大的不确定性，并且占地面积大、开发的内容广、性质复杂、建设周期长，通常的区域开发都有可能涉及到工业、城建、商业、人居、市政等多个领域的开发活动，所以区域开发必须结合区域开发的特征，准确识别其可能对区域内及其周边的空气环境、地下水质量、地表水水质及水文条件、声环境、土壤、植被、地形地貌等自然环境和人口、交通、经济结构等社会环境等产生的影响，并采取发展循环经济，减少污染生成的源头控制措施；科学规划产业结构，合理布局的预防性措施；源内达标、区域集中控制的污染治理措施；实施清洁生产、总量控制，推进区域环境与经济的持续发展。

Stabilization policy is also known as countercyclical policy, that is , policy to moderate the trade cycle or business cycle. The cycles in the past 20 years have been far from regular.

稳定政策，也被称为反经济循环周期的政策，即适度的贸易政策和商业周期循环，在过去20年这个周期是不规律的。

In the height of system theory, the paper presents enterprise life system structure, identification system, motivity system and immunity system, forms an integrity and preciseness structure. Around the topic of enterprise lifecycle system, the view of enterprise lifecycle system management combines biology character, economy character and system character of enterprise. It has a largish different to current research results. These are just the innovative viewpoints of the paper.

论文站在系统论的高度，提出企业生命周期系统结构、识别系统、动力系统和免疫系统，并围绕着企业生命周期的核心概念层层展开，前后衔接，形成完整严谨的体系，综合了企业的生命特性、经济特性和系统特性，相对当前有关企业生命周期的研究成果具有很大不同和进步，这也正是其创新性所在。

The record qualitatively shows that overall U.S. consumer spending tends to be stronger in the early stages of an El Nifio. This may be due partly to, and initially from, less nondiscretionary spending on energy, for example, and more spending on other discretionary items. Moreover, it takes about 912 months for the impact of the warming in the Pacific Ocean (as reflected by the Southern Oscillation Index) to show up as abnormally wet weather over a widespread area of the United States. The sunspot cycle might be another reason for expecting longer-run impacts climate on the economy. Galileo was credited with discovering sunspots around 1610. Ever since that time, there has been a debate, which at times has been intense, on the effect of solar activity on man, weather, agriculture and the whole economy.

可靠的记录显示：全美消费者消费倾向在EI Nifio早期较强劲开始阶段应付部分少数属刚性支出，如能耗更多的支出属可自行选择的内容此外，受太平洋海域升温的影响约持续9-12个月（摘自the Southern Oscillation Index）表现为异常的潮湿天气弥漫美国广泛的地区太阳黑子周期可能是气候对经济更长期影响的另一个原因可以认为Galileo发现太阳黑子周期大约在1610年从那时至今，太阳活动对人天气农业和整个经济的影响一直有争论，有时很激

In other words, the global recession has only interrupted the "supercycle" of which many analysts used to speak, during which the normal boom-and-bust cycle of oil and other commodities would give way to a protracted period of high prices, as ever-growing demand from emerging markets swallowed everything the extractive industries could produce.

换句话说，全球经济衰退仅仅打乱了许多分析师曾经讨论的&超级周期&，在这样的周期里，石油和其他商品正常的繁荣-萧条周期将让位于油价持续高位运行的时期，这是因为新兴市场不断增长的需求吞没了采掘业所能生产的一切产品。

"Heavy taxation is usually believed to take a higher toll on growth during cyclical upturns ... rather than in recession; yet, although the crisis originated in the US, it spread quickly to the EU and resulted in a slump of comparable proportions," the study says.

该研究报告表示：人们通常认为，高税收在上行周期中对经济增长的不良影响要大于经济衰退期；然而，尽管这场危机起源于美国，但它很快就扩散到欧洲，导致了同等比例的经济低迷。

According to Kondratieff, Schumpeter and other scholars of the economic long-cycle theory, by the industrial revolution and technological innovation induced by the long-period fluctuations, is roughly 40-50 years.

根据康德拉季耶夫，熊彼特等学者的经济长周期理论，由产业革命和技术创新引发的经济长周期波动，大致是 40-50 年时间。

The split between the two groups can hardly be papered over.

这两个团体间的分歧难以掩饰。

This approach not only encourages a greater number of responses, but minimizes the likelihood of stale groupthink.

这种做法不仅鼓励了更多的反应，而且减少跟风的可能性。