经济周期

Therefore, it's necessary for us to analyze and judge the dynamic characteristic of our country's investment cycle fluctuation action and the relationship between...

首先，我们采用时间序列的分解方法来描述和测度经济周期和投资周期；然后，我们采用相关分析方法来判断投资波动成分与经济周期成分之间的关联；最后，我们利用结构VAR模型来判断固定资产投资和实际产出之间的关系。文章最后根据上述实证得出结论，并给出相关政策建议。

Therefore, it's necessary for us to analyze and judge the dynamic characteristic of our country's investment cycle fluctuation action and the relationship between investment cycle and economic cycle.

首先，我们采用时间序列的分解方法来描述和测度经济周期和投资周期；然后，我们采用相关分析方法来判断投资波动成分与经济周期成分之间的关联；最后，我们利用结构VAR模型来判断固定资产投资和实际产出之间的关系。

Medium asymmetry makes clear broomrape of actual GDP foreword to disturb to be had in the different level of economic cycle randomly those who differ is durative with the fluctuation, because this arranges cycle and the economic policy that oppose cycle,have distinct effect effect.

实际GDP序列当中的非对称性表明随机扰动在经济周期的不同阶段具有不同的持续性和波动性，因此顺周期与反周期的经济政策具有不同的作用效果。

With the rapid development of economic integration and constant improvement of degree of openness in the most of countries, intercourse of the trade and financial field becomes more and more frequent. Under this kind of background, economic fluctuation is easy to take place because of external shocks through foreign trade, international capital flow and other channels. So, the research of economic cycle can not be taken only in closed environment. Focusing on the open e conomy, the discussion of influence on the economic cycle fluctuation from external shocks have rather important significance.

随着全球经济一体化的迅猛发展，各国经济开放程度不断提高，各国间贸易与金融领域的交往也日趋频繁，在这种背景下，通过对外贸易、国际资本流动等渠道本国的经济将会受到外来冲击的影响而发生波动，因此，对经济周期的研究不能仅停留在封闭条件下，着眼于开放经济的背景，探讨外来冲击对一国经济周期波动的影响具有相当重要的意义。

The management of investment requirement has been the main policy measure for macrostructure.

因此，我们有必要对我国投资周期波动行为的动态特征，以及投资周期与经济周期之间的关联性给出理论和经验上的进一步分析和判断，从而为制定宏观经济政策提供有力的参照依据。

In addition, the new economic growth theory, theory of economic growth, especially economic cycle of Mensch, are significant. Conclusions:(1) The capitalist mode of production has ability to regulate itself;(2) Although in modern conditions, the economic development brings some changes to the economic cycle, this law still functions today;(3) The economic condition is important for any mode of economic grow, in any country, advantages and disadvantages can be transformed alternately;(4) the conclusion from comparison can be benefit to our socialist economic structure reforms and its construction.

文章的主要结论：资本主义生产方式具有自我调整的能力；现代经济条件下发达资本主义国家经济周期虽然出现了变形，但资本主义经济周期规律并没有消亡；经济条件对一国经济增长模式的形成及效果是重要的，一个国家在一段时期内形成的经济发展优势会随着经济条件的变化朝相反的方向的转化；无论是美国"新经济"的成功经验或是日本"后泡沫经济"的失败教训都将有益于深化我国社会主义经济体制改革和建设。

We build our basic real business cycle model with a neoclassic growthmodel.

在概略讨论了经济周期及其特征事实之后，我们从新古典增长模型入手建立一个基本的真实经济周期模型，同时讨论模型的求解和校准，并对模型经济的周期特征进行分析。

This thesis intends to expound the business cycle theories and then further study will be given on the trade transmission mechanism of economic cycle, finally the thesis will discuss the economic correlations between China and other countries in the process of both economic growth.

本文旨在对经济周期理论进行较为详尽的考察，然后进一步研究贸易对经济周期传导机制的关系，最后本文还将提出我国在发展经济的过程中，同世界相关国家的经济相关性。

The cycle undulatory theory tell us that there is certain periodicity in economical development. This kind of periodic performance almost simultaneously expands for the many economic activity, then universal declines, contracts and recovers, thus influend economy development.

周期波动理论认为经济发展存在周期性，这种周期性表现为很多经济活动差不多同时扩张、继之以普遍的衰退、收缩与复苏，从而影响经济的发展；而景气理论则是在周期波动理论的基础上，构建景气指数来监测宏观经济受经济周期波动的影响。

Based on the study of scholars at home and abroad and from the point of theoretical and empirical study, this paper analyses the impact of foreign trade and FDI over China's business cycle using many econometric methods such as Unit Root Test, Co-integration Tests, Granger Test, Pulse-response Function and variance decomposition based on VAR model and draws the conclusion as follows:Firstly,there is a close relationship among foreign trade, FDI and business cycle. Foreign trade and FDI are the important transmission channel of the economic cycle. Secondly, the impact to economic fluctuation from foreign trade is greater than that of FDI. Thirdly, In the long time, there is fine interactive circulation among foreign trade, FDI and economic growth. When the short-term deviation from equilibrium happens, there is a self-balanced mechanism in the system.Fourthly,the active effect outweighs the negative effect which the foreign trade and FDI brings.

本文在国内外学者研究成果的基础上，从理论和实证两个方面，运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析及方差分解等计量经济学的方法，从比较的角度分析了对外贸易及FDI对我国经济周期波动的影响，得出结论如下：首先，对外贸易、FDI与我国经济的波动有着显著的关系，二者是传递经济周期的重要渠道；其次，对外贸易对我国经济波动的影响要大于FDI的作用；第三，长期看我国FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间形成良好的互动循环，当系统短期内偏离均衡状态时，系统存在一个自我均衡机制；第四，对外贸易及FDI对我国经济周期波动产生的积极效应要远大于它所带来的负面效应。

The split between the two groups can hardly be papered over.

这两个团体间的分歧难以掩饰。

This approach not only encourages a greater number of responses, but minimizes the likelihood of stale groupthink.

这种做法不仅鼓励了更多的反应，而且减少跟风的可能性。