经济

Hence, to jointly promote balanced and orderly world economic development, all countries, the major economies in particular, should adopt responsible economic policies, introduce necessary economic restructuring, keep a relatively stable exchange rate of the major reserve currencies and prevent trade protectionism.

世界各国特别是主要经济体，不仅要采取负责任的经济政策，进行必要的经济结构调整，维护主要储备货币汇率的相对稳定，防止贸易保护主义，而且要加强宏观经济政策的对话，特别是要加强在一些涉及世界经济发展全局和各国共同利益的重大问题上的协调，以共同促进世界经济平衡有序发展。

The results show that absolute convergence does not exist in rural economics among provinces,indicating that the economics growth of undeveloped provinces is not faster than that of developed provinces.

结果表明：我国农村省际之间经济并不存在绝对收敛，即落后省份经济的增长并不比发达省份增长快；但是存在条件收敛，即在控制了稳态的决定因素之后，落后地区的经济增长快于发达地区的经济增长，从而使差距缩小；在影响条件收敛的诸因素中，人力资本、产业结构以及科学技术对我国农村经济条件收敛的贡献最大。

The results show that absolute convergence does not exist in rural economics among provinces, indicating that the economics growth of undeveloped provinces is not faster than that of developed provinces. However, the economic development in rural China is characterized by the conditional convergence, that is, if the decisive factors stability is insured, the economic growth of undeveloped provinces would be faster than that of developed provinces. Thus, the disparity among them could be narrowed.

结果表明：我国农村省际之间经济并不存在绝对收敛，即落后省份经济的增长并不比发达省份增长快；但是存在条件收敛，即在控制了稳态的决定因素之后，落后地区的经济增长快于发达地区的经济增长，从而使差距缩小；在影响条件收敛的诸因素中，人力资本，产业结构以及科学技术对我国农村经济条件收敛的贡献最大。

The method of the research in the paper is impellent,and the basal research course is the following.Firstly,the author uses the Theil coefficient and Gini coefficient to analyze the regional economic gap,and decomposes the structure in China.At the same time,the author tests theσconvergence,the absoluteβconvergence,the conditionalβconvergence and the club convergence.Secondly, the author analyzes the forming reason and mechanism of the regional economic gap in China.

本文研究过程中采取逐步深入的推进方法，其基本研究思路是：首先，使用基尼系数和泰勒指数对中国地区经济发展差距的历史演变轨迹进行了分析，并对其形成结构进行了分解，同时对中国经济增长的σ收敛、绝对β收敛、条件β收敛和"俱乐部"收敛进行了检验，以此为基础形成了对中国地区经济发展差距的全面了解；其次，以新古典增长理论和新增长理论为基础对中国地区经济发展差距的形成机制进行了分析；再次，以FDI非均衡分布为视角对中国地区经济发展差距的形成机制进行了解释；最后，提出了本文的政策建议。

The counties'economy between macro-economy and micro-economy with the quality of administrational divisions is an important foundation and support of the national economy.

县域经济是国民经济的重要基础和支撑力量，是介于宏观经济与微观经济间的中观经济，并带有行政区划性质的区域经济。

This paper use for reference the free trade zone development theory both at home and abroad. conjoint to the actual situation of Haikou Free Trade Zone and Macun Port. It use the SWOT theory to analyze the strengths of port's conditions, city's environment, economy potency, city industry basic, opening situation, Boao Asian Forum platform, and air-line right opening. It analyzed the weakness of the un-perfect policy and code, the promoting level of using foreign capital, the mini scale of outer economy, the small size of economy gross, the un-powerful competition, the outer amending invest surroundings, rigidity of foreign exchange control. It also analyzed the opportunities of the incorporate trend reinforce of global economy, ocean economy fast rising, transition of bonded zone to free trade zone. The article point out the threats of Bonded Port and Zone's challenge, the challenge of Guangxi Zhuang Nation Autonomy Zone, bonded zone policy weakening after China joined the WTO, the menace of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. This paper drew a feasible development strategic for Haikou Free Trade Zone move to Macun Port. It define strategic target emphases and processes.

本文回顾过去14年海口保税区发展的历程，总结成功经验和不足之处，运用国内外保税区发展理论，并结合海口保税区和马村港的实际情况，利用SWOT分析法，分析了海口保税区西移马村港后存在的口岸条件、城市环境、经济潜力、城市工业基础较好、对外开放格局基本形成、博鳌亚洲论坛平台和航权开放等优势，也分析了有关政策法规不健全、外资利用水平有待提高、外向型经济规模较小、经济总量较小、综合竞争力不强、外部投资环境有待改善和外汇管制僵化等劣势，海口保税区也面临着全球经济一体化趋势加强、海洋经济迅速兴起和保税区向自由贸易区转型的良好机遇，认清来自保税港区的挑战和广西的挑战、入世后保税区政策优势削弱和来自中国——东盟自由贸易区的挑战。

This study analysised the condition of Xinjiang's petroleum resource and made an evaluation and it points out that the development of petroleum and natural gas of Xinjiang is still in the developing period in which it aims at discovering the petrol field and increasing its reserves.Although it has a great exploring potential,because of its geograghy limitation and a lack of exploring funds,the exploring level is till low,even lower than the everage level of the whole country. The study is based on theories of industry distributions,its concentration,macroscopic analysis,government regulations and continuing development.From microcosmic and macroscopic aspects,it scientifically and systematically analyses the problems in the development of petroleum industry in Xinjiang.It points that the developments of middle and upper reaches lack a balance and have no rational industry structures.So it is hard to form an integral industry chains.Moreover,the upper reach covers a too much large proportion in the development,so it can not give a strong impetus to other industries.Based it,the paper points the industrial concentration of Petroleum Chemical Products Manufacture of Xinjiang should be enhanced and Input to Petroleum Chemical Products Manufacture of Xinjiang should be increased.Due to a lack of an established fair and competitive market and government's perfect laws and regulations on petroleum industry,it points that the phenomenon of mixed operation has become common in monolopied business and competitive business,so the systems of petroleum industry needs to be restructured.It states clearly that the country should take the development and benefits of Xinjiang's economy into consideration when making strategies for petroleum development .Besides,the allocation of profits between the center and the local should be well arranged so that we can guarantee the profits of Xinjiang ,considered as a resource area.It also reveals that we should not only overcome limitations of resources,environment,economy and technology on continuring development,but also we should deal with some realistic problems well.For instance,contradictions between the concept of limited resource and continuing development,the relationship between petroleum industry's own features and continuing development,the contradictions between the limits on supply of petroleum and the need of future development of continuing resource ,outdated petroleum technology and the need of advanced technology for continuing development,tremendous damages to environment and requirements of environment protection for continuing development and Xinjiang continuing economic development,outdated policy of industry and continuing development,the relationship between continuing development of Xinjiang petroleum industry and continuing economic development of Xinjiang.

本研究以产业布局理论、产业集中度理论、灰关联分析理论、政府规制理论、可持续发展理论为依据，从微观、宏观两个层面，科学、系统、全面地分析新疆石油产业的发展问题，指出：新疆石油天然气目前仍处于油气田发现和增储的主要发展阶段，开发潜力巨大，但由于地质原因及勘探投入的不足，石油天然气探明程度偏低，低于全国平均水平；新疆石油产业产业结构布局不合理、上中下游发展不平衡，难以形成完整的产业链条，对工业的带动力与其本身具有的经济总量很不匹配；新疆石油开采业和石油加工业属于高度寡头垄断的市场类型，新疆石油化工业属于竞争型的市场结构，要想石油产业对新疆经济有较强的带动作用，新疆石油化工业必须上升到一定的层次和规模，在提高规模的基础上，提高新疆化工业的产业集中度；新疆石油加工业和化工业与农业呈现较高的关联度，加大对石油加工业和化工业的投入，对新疆经济的协调发展有着深远的影响；政府要从石油产业本质特征和发展趋势为着眼点，实施规制改革，分开政府规制政策的制定部门和监管部门职能，建立健全石油产业法律法规体系，对垄断性业务和竞争性业务实施分类规制；国家石油发展战略的制定应兼顾新疆区域经济的发展和利益，应切实处理好新疆与中央的利益分配，切实保证新疆作为资源产区合理的资源收益；新疆石油产业要想得以可持续发展，不仅要克服影响可持续发展的资源、环境、经济和技术等客观因素，还要处理好观念、需求、政策等诸多主观因素。

Based on the analyzation of conditions and traits of economic development of mountain fastness, this paper puts forward problems of economic development of mountain fastness, constructs the general theory framework of economic development of mountain fastness; and the title itself is worth opening up and innovating.

此外，本文还探讨了发展山寨特色经济、山寨经济可持续发展的建构和山寨经济的综合发展等问题，并就山寨经济的综合发展提出了跳出山寨发展山寨经济的观点和举措。

" World economy and political forum " it is Jiangsu the technicality publication that institute of economy of world of academy of sciences of society of province of director of province society academy of sciences, Jiangsu sponsors , in order to study world economy and international politics problem are given priority to, track issue of the heat in world economy and international politics domain, focus, key, mirror; of newest research achievement to set economy of finance of international trade and investment, international, international HongKong and Macow of safety of development of politics of strategy of delta of economy of relation, foreign country, the Yangtse River, international, abroad, foreign relations, international, stage considers to wait for a column.

梗概： 《世界经济和政治论坛》是江苏省社会科学院主管、江苏省社会科学院世界经济探究所主办的学术性刊物，以探究世界经济和国际政治新问题为主，追踪世界经济和国际政治领域中的热点、焦点、重点新问题，反映最新探究成果；设有国际贸易和投资、国际金融、国际经济关系、外国经济、长江三角洲、国际战略、国外政治发展、外交关系、国际平安、台港澳探究等栏目。

Based on the study of scholars at home and abroad and from the point of theoretical and empirical study, this paper analyses the impact of foreign trade and FDI over China's business cycle using many econometric methods such as Unit Root Test, Co-integration Tests, Granger Test, Pulse-response Function and variance decomposition based on VAR model and draws the conclusion as follows:Firstly,there is a close relationship among foreign trade, FDI and business cycle. Foreign trade and FDI are the important transmission channel of the economic cycle. Secondly, the impact to economic fluctuation from foreign trade is greater than that of FDI. Thirdly, In the long time, there is fine interactive circulation among foreign trade, FDI and economic growth. When the short-term deviation from equilibrium happens, there is a self-balanced mechanism in the system.Fourthly,the active effect outweighs the negative effect which the foreign trade and FDI brings.

本文在国内外学者研究成果的基础上，从理论和实证两个方面，运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析及方差分解等计量经济学的方法，从比较的角度分析了对外贸易及FDI对我国经济周期波动的影响，得出结论如下：首先，对外贸易、FDI与我国经济的波动有着显著的关系，二者是传递经济周期的重要渠道；其次，对外贸易对我国经济波动的影响要大于FDI的作用；第三，长期看我国FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间形成良好的互动循环，当系统短期内偏离均衡状态时，系统存在一个自我均衡机制；第四，对外贸易及FDI对我国经济周期波动产生的积极效应要远大于它所带来的负面效应。

The split between the two groups can hardly be papered over.

这两个团体间的分歧难以掩饰。

This approach not only encourages a greater number of responses, but minimizes the likelihood of stale groupthink.

这种做法不仅鼓励了更多的反应，而且减少跟风的可能性。