短期预报

Results indicate that the ensemble precipitation probability forecasts made by the three methods above-mentioned all can give accurate estimation of center and region of the precipitation, and the "Rank" is superior to the "Average" and "Correlation" for performing better in forecasting the areas, intensity and boundary of precipitation but the other two expand improper areas.

结果表明：用上述3种方法制作的多模式短期集合概率预报都能对降水落区及中心做出较准确的预报，但平均法和相关法易使降水落区虚假放大，Rank法则能较好地刻画降水落区边界及强度，其概率预报效果优于平均法和相关法结果。

The results show that:(1) The long-term prediction for the production of field icefish population is unreliable because of chaotic behavior.

同时指出：（1）混沌行为使银鱼产量长期预报不可能实现，只有短期预报才能保证必要的精度。

Based on the correct short-range numerical forecast for climatic situation the accuracy is about 70%using statistical interpretation forecast method, and if the abnormal variation of mean monthly circulation could be predicted, the trend of abnormal frequency variation could be predicted.

在短期气候数值形势预报准确的基础上，应用统计释用预报方法所得的准确率为70%左右，若能预报出汛平均环流的异常变化，则可确定ATC汛频数的特多年或特少年。

A method of quantitative precipitation forecasts for short-range ensemble forecast is presented aiming at inability of ensemble average method to extreme weather event.

摘要针对短期集合预报中集合平均等方法对极端天气事件预报能力低下的缺陷，提出一种定量降水预报集合方法，简称两步法。

In this fashion one may again issue, on a shortrange basis, the expected Correction to the predicted levels found in the tide table

人们可对潮汐表的预报水位作出短期预报订正。晚祈祷时间；晚上，黄昏

In this fashion one may again issue, on a shortrange basis, the expected correction to the predicted levels found in the tide table.

人们可对潮汐表的预报水位作出短期预报订正。

With the IAP Prediction System of Short-term Climate Anomaly, two sets of seasonal and extra-seasonal ensemble hindcasts have been performed during the period of 1980～1994 in order to assess the prediction skill of the IAP PSSCA with two different schemes The difference of the two schemes is in the different version of AGCM used, with the IAP AGCM 1 1 in one scheme and the IAP AGCM 1 2 with an improved surface albedo parameterization in the other Comparisons of the hindcast results with the observations show that IAP PSSCA is capable of predicting the precipitation anomaly to some extent In the eastern China largely affected by Asian monsoon and SST anomalies, the prediction skill is relatively high, especially in the Southeastern China where the anomaly correlation coefficient can reach as high as 0 50 in the severe flood and drought years This may suggest that the possible mechanisms for these severe disasters have been well captured by the IAP PSSCA The prediction skill is higher for the modified model AGCM 1 2 as the model's climatological state is well simulated This indicates that models with reasonable land process will improve the prediction skill for short-term climate prediction

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所研制的短期气候距平数值预测系统，种版本的大气环流模式：AGCM 1.1和AGCM 1.2，分别以2月11～19日的9天大气观测值为初始场，以给定海温为边界场，对1980～1994年的15年的降水异常进行了两组集合后报试验。对试验结果进行定量评估表明：IAP PSSCA对降水异常具有一定的预测能力，特别是在中国东部受东亚季风及海温异常影响的地区，IAP PSSCA具有较高的预报技巧，其中以东南区域(包括江淮流域和华南地区)最高，尤其是对有洪涝灾害的降水异常年，距平相关系数在0.50左右，接近可供业务使用的要求，说明模式能够抓住在东亚季风区存在的某种物理机制，从而提高了这一地区的预报技巧；另外，两个大气环流模式相比，改进了地表反照率的AGCM 1.2的15年集合平均预测技巧略高于AGCM 1.1，特别是在华北地区，预测效果有明显提高，这表明改进地表反照率从而改进了模式的气候平均态的模拟，能提高气候模式的预测能力，说明较好的陆面过程引入模式对短期气候预测是有益的。

The relations between prediction accuracy and prediction models, observable arc and the sampling datum for short- and long-term prediction are computed and analyzed, using the running data of different type satellite clocks in continuous and incontinuous measurement status.

讨论了原子钟时间预报模型，针对三种不同类型的GPS卫星钟，在连续观测和不连续观测两种情况下，计算分析了短期预报和长期预报中预报方法、可观测弧段和采用数据量与预报精度的关系。

The intensity and way of the cold high atmospheric pressure center,Ф568 (the latitude at the nodical point of the 5680 geopotential meter line with the 120°E line in the 500hPa high altitude) and Ф850(the latitude at the nodical point of the 0℃ temperature lute with the 120°E line in the 850hPa high altitude) were closely related to the minimum temperature. The equation of short-term forecast of low temperature weather for Fuzhou, Xiamen and Shaowu was established by stepwise regression analysis. The detemperature rate was estimated by cloud cover, wind velocity, humidity (N20, F20, U20) at 20:00 o'clock.

通过对历史资料分析，利用逐步回归分析方法分别建立了福州、厦门和邵武三个探空站最低气温t的短期预报方程，再利用各地当晚20时的云量、风速、湿度(N20、F20、U20)值估算当晚的降温幅度、进一步对最低气温t进行短时临近预报，然后结合各地果树主栽品种及其抗低温冻害指标、及时发布低温冻害预警预告，构成了福建省冬季果树冻害低温预报预警模式。

The shorted prediction for and control the movement cross direction of shipping is essential to safe catapulting and efficient navigate and curb of vessel.

船舶横向运动姿态极短期预报及控制对提高船舶武器装备系统精度以及对舰船有效的航行与控制是十分重要的。

As she looked at Warrington's manly face, and dark, melancholy eyes, she had settled in her mind that he must have been the victim of an unhappy attachment.

每逢看到沃林顿那刚毅的脸，那乌黑、忧郁的眼睛，她便会相信，他一定作过不幸的爱情的受害者。

Maybe they'll disappear into a pothole.

也许他们将在壶穴里消失