理论概率

This risk model is a generalization of classical compound binomial risk models in which two correlated claims are considered.

风险理论是对风险进行定量分析和预测的一般理论，破产概率的研究在这一理论中占有重要的地位。

The proposed method has the merit that the numerical characteristics of stochastic temperature field response can be obtained by analyzing the random temperature field just in one time.3. Perturbed numerical algorithm of nonprobabilistic convex set theoretical models on the temperature fieldThe uncertain parameters of physical parameters and initial boundary conditions of heat conduction are described by the convex model. The perturbation formulas of the upper and lower bounds of temperature field response with unknown-but-bounded parameters are given via the combination of matrix perturbation theory and the convex set theory model.4. Numerical analysis for transient temperature field with interval parametersConsidering the uncertainties of the transient heat transfer, the physical parameters and initial boundary conditions are regarded as interval variables.

该方法具有只进行一次随机温度场分析便可以获得其响应的数字特征的优点。3、温度场的非概率凸集合理论模型的摄动数值解法将结构导热的物理参数、温度场的初始和边界条件等不确定性参数以凸模型加以描述，基于矩阵摄动理论和处理不确定问题的凸集合理论模型的结合，导出有界不确定参数瞬态温度场响应所在集合的上、下界摄动计算公式。4、具有区间参数的瞬态温度场数值分析考虑结构瞬态热传导问题的不确定性，将结构各物理参数和温度的初、边值条件均视为区间变量。

In theory, kinetic theory of gases with classical mechanics and statistical methods based on the thermal motion and interaction to make the appropriate simplifying assumptions, gives molecular modeling and collision mechanisms, using probability theory dealing with a large number of elements of collective behavior, characterized by the collective movement find the statistical average value.

理论上，气体动理论以经典力学和统计方法为基础，对热运动及相互作用做适当的简化假设，给出分子模型和碰撞机制，借助概率理论处理大量分子的集体行为，求出表征集体运动的统计平均值。

By applying some latest theory of probability theory and statistics, survival analysis not only deals with censored data problem in real life, but also reveals more complicatedly theoretic problems and promotes the development of mathematical statistics, while it settles down practical problems.

生存分析理论结合一些新的概率统计的前沿理论，能妥善地处理现实生活中常见的删失数据问题，而且在解决实际问题的同时，揭示了一些更为复杂的理论问题，促进了数理统计的发展。

Chapter 4 is the central part of this dissertation, where the bayes bilateral integrated moment is established on the base of Bayes theory, downside risk and upside potential. According to the variation coefficient which is based on the M-V approach, we substitute lower partial moment for the numerator of variation coefficient, and use higher partial moment as the substitute of the denominator, then we got bilateral integrated moment. Subsequently, through Bayes method we can absorb new information, revise the return distribution from transcendental distribution to posterior distribution, so we got bayes bilateral integrated moment.

第四章是本文的核心部分，在简要介绍Bayes理论、下方风险和上行潜能的基础上，仿照来源于Markowitz的均值——方差理论的变异系数方法，以下偏矩取代其分子部分，以上行潜能取代其分母部分，设计了双侧综合矩方法，接着再引入Bayes方法，吸纳新信息，采用后验概率，设计了Bayes双侧综合矩方法，并在理论上说明了新方法的优越性。

Through the comparison between R. M. Hare's ethic deductive theory and the two versions of rational prescriber's theory, the writer finds that utilitarianism can be derived from a theory of the type of rational choice only if the hypothesis is held that the chooser is in all parties' places with equal probability.

通过比较黑尔的道德推理理论和两个版本的理性立约者理论，可以发现，理性选择论类型的理论，如果要导出功利主义的结论，都需要假定选择者以相等的概率处于有关各方的地位上。

The evidence theory is mainly stated through the probability distribution function, and the function of trust and likelihood. In a sense, the rough set theory is inherited and has developed the evidence theory.

证据理论主要是通过概率分配函数、信任函数及似然函数来表述，从某种意义上说粗集理论继承和发展了证据理论。

At first,this paper introduces differences between Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory and Bayes' subjective probability theory and main definitions and algorithms on D-S evidence theory.

本文首先介绍了证据理论与贝叶斯主观概率理论对于解决不确定性问题的差异，证据理论的主要定义和算法。

But, in 1934, Karl Popper, one of the most influential philosophers of our time, argued that the mathematical probability of all theories, scientific or pseudoscientific, given any amount of evidence is zero.

但是，当代最有影响的哲学家之一卡尔。波普尔于1934年论证到，在任何特定数量的证据下，所有理论，无论是科学的理论还是伪科学的理论，其数学概率都等于零。

Using high resolution N-body simulations, we studied the distribution of formation-redshift of dark matter haloes with large span of mass and found that all of the 3 kinds of theoretical models including EPS theory can not explain well the simulation results. This indicates that the theoretical conditional mass function of haloes needs further improvement.

利用高分辨数值模拟，我们研究了不同质量范围的暗晕的形成红移分布，发现包括扩展PS理论在内的3种理论模型的结果与数值模拟的结果都不能完全符合，说明理论的条件概率函数还需要进一步改进。

I am accused of being overreligious," she said in her quiet, frank manner,"but that does not prevent me thinking the children very cruel who obstinately commit such suicide.""

客人们在卡罗利娜·埃凯家里，举止就文雅一些，因为卡罗利娜的母亲治家很严厉。

Designed by French fashion house Herm è s, this elegant uniform was manufactured in our home, Hong Kong, and was the first without a hat.

由著名品牌 Herm è s 设计，这件高贵的制服是香港本土制造，是我们第一套不配帽子的制服。