理论概率

In this paper, a Markovian model for dry-battery market forecast is developed as an application of the Markov chain theory, includiing initial probability vector, transition matrix, proportion of market sharing, market stability, etc, In order to illustrate this model, the paper cites as an example the dry-battery market forecast and stability in a certain district.

干电池市场预测的马尔柯夫模型是马尔柯夫链理论的进一步应用。比如：初始概率向量、转移概率矩阵、市场占有率和稳定性等。为了介绍这种方法，我们以一个现实生活中的例子——某地区干电池市场预测及长期稳定状态来说明。

Then, rain disaster risk model of the flowering period is developed by use of rainfall probability density distribution of 3 consecutive days.

通过分析油葵播种期的关键因子（稳定通过10℃的初终日）30年的概率密度分布，并结合实际播期定义了理论播种期；在此基础上利用连续3 d降雨概率密度分布构建了花期雨害风险模型。

An important property of the ROC of the globally optimized fusion system is obtained, that is, the slope of a curve in the ROC at a particular point can be used to determine the decision thresholds at fusion center and all the sensors required to achieve the detection and false alarm probabilities of that point.

5推导出了全局最优化融合系统工作特性曲线的一个重要性质，即根据融合系统检测概率对虚警概率的导数，可以确定使融合系统工作在该工作点所需的融合中心及各部传感器的判决门限。该性质是对单传感器检测系统ROC曲线性质的重要推广，从而丰富了检测融合理论的研究成果。

As a transform of natural reasoning, subjective probability estimate, as long as heuristic become the new study point of heuristic probability estimate.

启发式概率估计的研究范式能够将启发式理论假设与概率估计的可量化特点结合起来，可以更好地以实验的方法探索启发式推理的内部机制。

This article first introduce development course of the project risk assessment theory, in the foundation of summarizing each kind of project risk assessment method good and bad points, elaborate the article research basic point - tradition sensitivity analysis principle and the good and bad points, summarize the present subjective probability and the objective probability still have the deficiency to its improvement, obtain the conclusion that the improvement sensitive analysis still is the qualitative analysis.

本文首先介绍了项目风险评估理论的发展历程，在总结了各种项目风险评估方法优缺点的基础上，阐述了本文的研究基点——传统敏感性分析的原理及其优缺点，总结了现行的主观概率和客观概率对它的改进仍然存在着不足之处，得出改进后的敏感性分析仍然是定性分析的结论。

From the calculation results of an example, it is found that the total probability of failure of a structural system will not equal to the sum of the probabilities of failure for all the individual failure modes.

从其对耐压圆柱壳的计算结果可以看出，潜艇耐压圆柱壳结构的失效概率并不等于各失效模式的失效概率之和，这不同于Faulkner做出的求和理论假定。

Based on this information, offspring from 10 crosses where parents were known were genotyped by the 6 microsatellite loci and used for parentage analysis. The result showed that assignment success of the progeny to their 'true' mother and father was 88% and 78% respectively, which were lower than predicted by the Cervus simulations. This could be explained by the existence of null or mutant alleles and by Taq DNA Polymerase slippage in the microsatellite loci.

在家系混养的模拟实验中使用这6个高多态性的微卫星基因座从20个候选雌虾中找到真正母亲的概率为88%，从30个候选雄虾中找到真正父亲的概率为78%，低于理论预测值，分析可能与微卫星基因座中的无效等位基因，等位基因的突变以及PCR过程中 Taq 酶发生链滑移等因素有关。

First, this paper gives an introduction of some methods of unequal probability sampling, their estimators and variance estimators, including sampling with pps with replacement, methods of sampling without replacement suggested by Brewer, Durbin, Sampford , Des Raj , Murthy , Rao-Hartley-Cochran. Then, at the basis of Rao and Bayless's study , we consider that population can be splited two random subpopulations, which are respectively drawn from different infinite super-populations, and compare the stabilities of estimators of the methods that given above.

本文首先从理论上介绍了若干种不等概率抽样方法，它们的估计量、估计量的方差及其估计，其中包括有放回PPZ及PPS抽样，不放回不等概率抽样中的Brewer、Durbin、Sampford、Des Raj，Murthy、Rao-Hartley-Cochran等人的方法；其次，在Rao和Bayless两人就样本单元数n=2的情形对上述抽样方法进行比较的基础上，将总体随机地分成两个子总体，视每个子总体取自不同的线性超总体，在文中，我们利用计算机实现随机分组，并通过画图比较各方法估计量的稳定性，结果表明，对变异系数C.V。

First, this paper gives an introduction of some methods of unequal probability sampling, their estimators and variance estimators, including sampling with pps with replacement, methods of sampling without replacement suggested by Brewer, Durbin, Sampford , Des Raj , Murthy , Rao-Hartley-Cochran.Then, at the basis of Rao and Baylesss study , we consider that population can be splited two random subpopulations, which are respectively drawn from different infinite super-populations, and compare the stabilities of estimators of the methods that given above.

本文首先从理论上介绍了若干种不等概率抽样方法，它们的估计量、估计量的方差及其估计，其中包括有放回PPZ及PPS抽样，不放回不等概率抽样中的Brewer、Durbin、Sampford、Des Raj，Murthy、Rao-Hartley-Cochran等人的方法；其次，在Rao和Bayless两人就样本单元数n=2的情形对上述抽样方法进行比较的基础上，将总体随机地分成两个子总体，视每个子总体取自不同的线性超总体，在文中，我们利用计算机实现随机分组，并通过画图比较各方法估计量的稳定性，结果表明，对变异系数C.V。

Firstly, an empirical approximation model of stochastic programming is obtained by replacing the probability measure of original program with empirical probability measure. Sequentially, the constrained stochastic programming is transformed into an equivalent unconstrained stochastic programming. Finally, using the epi-convergence theory, the almost everywhere upper semiconvergence of optimal solution set of empirical approximations for stochastic programming is obtained.

首先通过经验概率测度替代初始规划的概率测度得到随机规划的经验逼近模型，然后将带有约束的随机规划问题转化成与其等价的无约束的随机规划问题，最后利用上图收敛性理论，给出了随机规划经验逼近最优解集的几乎处处上半收敛性。

I am accused of being overreligious," she said in her quiet, frank manner,"but that does not prevent me thinking the children very cruel who obstinately commit such suicide.""

客人们在卡罗利娜·埃凯家里，举止就文雅一些，因为卡罗利娜的母亲治家很严厉。

Designed by French fashion house Herm è s, this elegant uniform was manufactured in our home, Hong Kong, and was the first without a hat.

由著名品牌 Herm è s 设计，这件高贵的制服是香港本土制造，是我们第一套不配帽子的制服。