灾害

Despite of original environment itself of deuterogenic environmental problem of geological and geographical environment depended on urban construction caused by severe human developing interference,geological disaster in original or induced condition,becomes one of the environmental behavior for evaluating urban engineering geological environment.

城市建设所依托的地质、地理环境，无论是原生环境还是人类开发活动剧烈干扰导致的次生环境问题，地质灾害总是扮演着特别重要的角色。地质灾害在原生及后期诱发条件下的表现，成为城市工程地质环境评价时必须十分注重的环境行为之一。

The stabilizing pile,one end of which is fixed and the other is free, is changed from one state of free head into another statee of elastica...

近年来，作者采用这种方法整治了30余个滑坡灾害工程，都取得了十分显著的效果。一般可节省灾害整治费用20%~40%。

The flood of Yellow River is always the serious trouble of Chinese, and ice flood disaster have the maximum influencing factors and the most complicated flooded theory, it was concluded with ancient adage "the ice flood burst and official innocence" and " estival flood easily prevented and ice flood hardly defended".

黄河的洪水问题一直是中华民族的心腹大患，而黄河冰凌灾害又是影响因素最多、成灾机理最复杂的一种灾害，从&凌汛决口，河官无罪&及&伏汛好抢，凌汛难防&的古谚语即可见一斑。

Exogenic geologic process and human action promote thegeological hazard and accelerate occurrence of hazard.

从根本上看，地应力作用即内动力作用是形成地质灾害的基础，外动力和人为活动加剧了地质灾害的发生，起促进和激化作用。

However,only was exogenic geological process widely emphasized in the past,while the coupling between endogenic and exogenic geological processes were only presented in formations of experiential judges and qualitative studies.

内动力和外动力地质作用是地质灾害形成过程中不可缺少的两种作用，但是，以往的地质灾害研究偏重于外动力作用，对于外动力与内动力耦合作用的形式，由于缺少直观的实例，只能根据经验感觉进行判断和定性的研究。

The prevention area map of the research area was gained at the basis of the evaluation map of the areas geohazards fatalness.

在研究区的危险性评价图的基础上，得出地质灾害防治区划图，并且在防治区划图的指导下，构建了研究区的地质灾害防治体系和防治措施。

From the definition of geomorphic hazards,this paper expounds four basic topics should be solved for the prediction and forecast of geomorphic hazards.

从地貌灾害的定义入手，阐述了地貌灾害预测预报需要解决的四个基本问题、解决这四个问题的二种途径，以及进行预测预报的四种方法。

Procedures of establishing the model is ① comprehensive investigation of regional geo-hazard;② distribution of geo-hazard and influencing factors, such as land form, hydrographical net, soilsand rocks, geological structure, rainfall, etc;③ setting up conceptual model and mathematical model;④ grading risk degree and issuing early-warning.

建立模型的程序是：(1)区域地质灾害综合调查；(2)研究区域内地质灾害分布与地形、水系、工程地质岩组、地质构造形迹、人类工程活动、降雨量分布和地震活动的统计分析；(3)创建概念模型和数学模型；(4)确定危险度指数和预报等级。

Statistics over the last decade show that over 80 per cent of all natural disasters are of meteorological or hydrological origin. In the 1950s, losses from all natural disasters, including those of hydrometeorological origin, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, were estimated at US$ 4 billion per year and in the 1990s at US$ 40 billion.

过去10年的统计显示，超过80%的自然灾害是气象和水文灾害。20世纪50年代，包括水文气象灾害以及地震和火山喷发在内的所有自然灾害造成的损失估计为每年40亿美元，到了90年代则为400亿美元。

Then the author reviews the content of risk analysis of regional natural disasters and the mathematical models of risk assessment. The risk analysis is classified into three steps, risk recognition , risk estimation, and risk assessment and the mathematical models into three types, extreme risk model, probability risk model and possibility risk model. Nextly, the possibility risk model for analyzing regional disaster risk are reviewed thoroughly.

综述了区域灾害风险分析的内容及区域灾害风险估算的数学模型，指出风险分析可归结为风险辨识、风险估算、风险评价三个环节，风险估算数学模型的演进可概括为极值风险模型、概率风险模型、可能性风险模型三个阶段，着重介绍区域自然灾害风险分析的可能性风险模型。

The split between the two groups can hardly be papered over.

这两个团体间的分歧难以掩饰。

This approach not only encourages a greater number of responses, but minimizes the likelihood of stale groupthink.

这种做法不仅鼓励了更多的反应，而且减少跟风的可能性。