波动的

Autoregressive Process, a useful tool in time-series models, is used in this thesis to demonstrate features of price fluctuation in international oil markets and to find out what causes such fluctuation.

本文使用分析时间序列问题常用的方法——自回归AR模型，来研究世界油价波动的特征，分析引起油价波动的原因，从而掌握世界油价波动的规律，更好地采取措施降低油价波动对经济的影响。

At last, extends realized volatility based on high-frequency data to realized covariance matrix based on multivariate high-frequency data.

接着，实证研究了上海股市的"已实现"波动和调整"已实现"波动的特性，并针对调整"已实现"波动的长记忆性和"杠杠"效应建立了 ARFIMAX 模型。

After studying abroad and home studies on housing price and price dynamics, this paper constructed an analytical frame to examine house price dynamics through autocorrelation and spatial correlation and explained the causing mechanism about it.

在梳理了国内外学者关于住房价格、住房价格波动相关研究的基础上，本文建立了通过自相关和空间相关两个维度考察城市住房价格波动的分析框架，解释住房价格波动的产生机制。

They are as following: to establish the selection method of the slaving designed quality functions according to the interrelationship among designed quality functions; to construct the measurement functions of the optimality robustness with the hypersurface characteristics around the current iterative point of designed quality functions.

具体地，根据设计性能函数之间相互关系给出了处于支配地位设计性能函数的选择方法；利用设计性能目标函数在当前迭代点附近的超曲面特征，构造设计性能目标函数的最优性健壮度量函数；按照系统有序化设计模型的最优解应同时具有可行性健壮与最优性健壮的要求，通过计算设计性能目标函数与约束函数对设计变量的波动与非设计参数的波动的一阶敏度来确定系统有序化设计模型中的健壮参数；并以此为基础建立了进一步考虑非设计参数波动对设计变量波动有影响的后健壮分析方法。

Based on the index an on-line algorithm for segmenting time series is brought forward.

3基于金融时间序列的自相似性与波动聚集性，提出了一种新的波动聚集性模型——基于自相似的波动聚集模型，用于研究在不同时段，序列波动的自相似特征。

It means to recognize periodicity by analyzing the spectral density of periodically variable sequence, then to judge the measured period true or false through the statistical examination of Fisher's Kappa and Bartlett's Kolmogorovsmirnov.

第三节"波动周期的模型测定法"以"收入—支出"结构和"需求导向"为基本构架，通过建立中国宏观经济波动模型来测定宏观经济内生变量波动的周期长度，这种通过解析思路测定经济变量波动周期的方法，具有理论支撑，其科学性、可信性是显而易见的。

This paper is composed of four parts: the first part is the exordium and explain the developing trend of researches of exchange rate volatility, the second part introduce the data that used in this article and describe the character of the object, the third part simulate the daily exchange rate of the ShangHai Stock Composite Price Index with ARCH models, the fourth part forecast the volatility of the daily exchange rate.

全文共分为四个部分：第一部分阐述了关于收益率波动研究的发展趋势，并总结了国内外基于ARCH 模型的一些实证研究成果；第二部分介绍了本文研究所使用的数据及处理方法，并对该数据的统计特征进行描述；第三部分引入ARCH 族模型对上证指数的日收益率序列进行拟合研究，通过拟合不同的模型揭示了日收益率波动过程中条件异方差的波动特征，定量的刻画了收益率波动的不确定性；第四部分将拟合的模型应用于对收益率波动的预测，分别从定性预测和定量预测两个角度介绍ARCH 族模型的应用实例。

The complexity of bodywork decides variety of it's error. The station and primary factor which cause error is inconstant change and using correlation analysis can find out the primary factor. With an project given, the theory of correlation analysis for dimension variation of bodywork is discussed through correlation analysis and the layer structure of the bodywork,the state in which the error happened can be found out. How to use eigenva...

车体装焊的复杂性决定了误差产生的多因素性，车体制造过程中产生误差的工位和主要因素是不断变化的，采用相关性分析方法从众多的误差根源中准确地发现最主要的误差源；结合工程实践，论述了车体尺寸波动的相关性分析方法的原理，根据测量点的相关性分析和车体焊接工艺的层次结构，可准确地找到产生车体尺寸误差的工位；讨论了如何利用相关系数矩阵的特征值和相应的特征向量判断尺寸波动的模式，指出测量数据的波动主要按最大特征值所对应的特征向量方式波动，引起这种波动的原因是车体误差产生的主要原因，应重点采取措施加以控制；提出了应用计算机进行相关性分析的解决方案。

Based on the study of scholars at home and abroad and from the point of theoretical and empirical study, this paper analyses the impact of foreign trade and FDI over China's business cycle using many econometric methods such as Unit Root Test, Co-integration Tests, Granger Test, Pulse-response Function and variance decomposition based on VAR model and draws the conclusion as follows:Firstly,there is a close relationship among foreign trade, FDI and business cycle. Foreign trade and FDI are the important transmission channel of the economic cycle. Secondly, the impact to economic fluctuation from foreign trade is greater than that of FDI. Thirdly, In the long time, there is fine interactive circulation among foreign trade, FDI and economic growth. When the short-term deviation from equilibrium happens, there is a self-balanced mechanism in the system.Fourthly,the active effect outweighs the negative effect which the foreign trade and FDI brings.

本文在国内外学者研究成果的基础上，从理论和实证两个方面，运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析及方差分解等计量经济学的方法，从比较的角度分析了对外贸易及FDI对我国经济周期波动的影响，得出结论如下：首先，对外贸易、FDI与我国经济的波动有着显著的关系，二者是传递经济周期的重要渠道；其次，对外贸易对我国经济波动的影响要大于FDI的作用；第三，长期看我国FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间形成良好的互动循环，当系统短期内偏离均衡状态时，系统存在一个自我均衡机制；第四，对外贸易及FDI对我国经济周期波动产生的积极效应要远大于它所带来的负面效应。

The results of research are as follows: there is a weak cointegration between the two varieties in the long run and it can adjust the unbalance of the price fluctuation in the short run; it makes a stronger effect on Hard White Winter Wheat than on Strong Gluten Wheat; the price fluctuations of Hard White Winter Wheat and Strong Gluten Wheat are both affected by their lagged ones in the short run.

该协整关系对两个小麦品种价格波动的短期失衡都有显著的系统调节作用，其中对硬冬白麦价格波动的修正作用要强于对强筋小麦价格波动的修正作用。在短期内，强筋小麦和硬冬白麦的价格波动同时受到自身和对方滞后期价格波动的影响。

It has been put forward that there exists single Ball point and double Ball points on the symmetrical connecting-rod curves of equilateral mechanisms.

从鲍尔点的形成原理出发，分析对称连杆曲线上鲍尔点的产生条件，提出等边机构的对称连杆曲线上有单鲍尔点和双鲍尔点。

The factory affiliated to the Group primarily manufactures multiple-purpose pincers, baking kits, knives, scissors, kitchenware, gardening tools and beauty care kits as well as other hardware tools, the annual production value of which reaches US$ 30 million dollars.

集团所属工厂主要生产多用钳、烤具、刀具、剪刀、厨具、花园工具、美容套等五金产品，年生产总值3000万美元，产品价廉物美、选料上乘、质量保证，深受国内外客户的青睐