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The Markov forecast model, time series method (triple exponential smoothing method and a combined of triple exponential smoothing method and Markov model) and stepwise regression forecast method were choosed, and the basic principles and processes of the three models were analyzed and compared. Based on above, the three methods were used to predict population dynamic of Cricetulus barabansis and Meriones unguiculatus. The characteristic, accuracy and applicability of three methods were analysed and compared. The results showed that,(1) Markov model belongs to a middle-long time forecast model, and the result was interval forecast, but it reached the requirement of forecasting the harmful population dynamic of rodents. Through the forecasted population dynamic of Cricetulus barabansis and Meriones unguiculatus in 2004, the results were accurate; this meant that Markov model was a good forecast model to Cricetulus barabansis and Meriones unguiculatus population.

选择马尔可夫链预测模型、时间序列分析法(三次指数平滑法、三次指数平滑法和马尔可夫链预测模型的组合预测法)和逐步回归预测法,对这三种模型的基本原理、模型的构建过程进行对比分析,在此基础上用此三种方法预测了黑线仓鼠和长爪沙鼠的种群数量,并对三种方法的特点、预测的准确度和适用范围进行了比较分析,结果表明:(1)马尔可夫链预测模型属于中长期预测,预测的结果为区间预测,但对于害鼠种群数量的预测来说已经达到要求,通过对2004年黑线仓鼠和长爪沙鼠种群数量的预测,预测的结果都比较准确,这说明对于预测黑线仓鼠和长爪沙鼠种群的数量动态,马尔可夫链模型是比较好的模型。

After two-cluster testing,branch length testing and relative rate testing ,two sequences(Melantitta nigra and Aythya americana) of 15 Cty b sequences were deleted because thek evolutionary rate were heterogeneous. The divergence between Anseriformes and Galliformes was chosen as an anchor point. Nucleotide sequence and amino acid sequence of 13 sequences data set was used to calibrated Anatidae molecular clocks. The results indicated that amino acid sequence is better than nucleotide sequence when divergence time is calculated with two kinds of sequences. The reliable divergence time of Anatidae were estimated with """"1+2TiTv"""" model.

经过二簇检验、分枝长度检验和相对速率检验,删除2条速率不恒定的序列后,用剩余的13条序列,以鸡形目与雁形目的分歧时间(89.8MYA)为锚定点,用顺序标定法标定鸭科鸟类分子钟的分析结果表明,用&1+2TiTv&分析得到的鸭科鸟类的分歧时间比较可靠;氨基酸序列用泊松校正模型和Γ模型估计的分类单元间的分歧时间则比较一致,表明氨基酸序列更适合用于鸭科鸟类分子钟的研究;用同一基因标定分子钟时,较长序列得到的结果标准误比较小;与核苷酸序列相比,氨基酸序列更适于用作分子钟的标定。

When the gas flux is constant, the ratio of reduced resistance is improved with the increase of the water stream velocity. However, the relationship between the gas flux and the ratio of reduced resistance is more complex. When the water stream velocity is constant, if the gas flux is small in contrast, the effectiveness of reduced resistance is not obvious. But when the gas flux increased, the jetted gas will form """"archform"""" which will augment the shape resistance. In this condition, resistance could not be reduced and could even be increased, if the gas flux continues to be increased. So that there needs setting a baffle called step, which introduces the jetted gas into the turbulence boundary layer. In this case, the shape resistance may be fairly great. Besides, the waterline of model has also some effect on the ratio of reduced resistance, which acts on the size of wave. If waterline is deep, the wave could not affect the deployment of microbubble layer, so there is almost no effect on ratio of reduced resistance. However, the wave would affect distributing of microbubble layer under the model so that the gas could leak out from the two sides of model and directly affect the ratio of reduce resistance if the waterline is very small. Whether installing the dashplate or not has also the great influence on the effectiveness the ratio of reduced resistance. From the results of experiment, conclusion is that adding dashplate will greatly improve the effectiveness of reduced resistance.

当喷气量一定时,水流速度增大,减阻率提高;喷气量与减阻率之间的关系比较复杂,速度一定时,如果喷气量较小,减阻效果就比较差,但当喷气量增大的话,喷射出的气体就会形成一个&拱度&,增加了船模的形状阻力,在这种情况下最好采取断阶喷气,把气体引入到湍流边界层中,在这种情况下,船模的形状阻力比较大;船模的吃水对减阻率也有一定的影响,主要表现在波浪大小上,如果吃水较深,波浪影响不到微气泡层的分布,对减阻率不会造成太大影响,如果吃水较浅,波浪就会影响到微气泡层在船模底部的覆盖情况,可能会有部分微气泡从船模两侧泄漏,这样就直接影响到了减阻效果;是否安装压浪板,对减阻率也有较大的影响,从试验结果可以看出,在船模尾部加设了压浪板时,减阻效果明显得到改善。

In the thesis the author analyzes the tripping of stiffened panels by three different methods. Based on the above method, the author calculates the ultimate longitudinal strength of a boxlike girder, several ships and many stiffed panels by program. And then checks with some famous experts results. The result is approving. Also the author analyses the reliability of ship considering corrosion. At last an experiment is done to verify the theory.

由于加筋板侧倾屈曲是一种非常危险的破坏形式,本文采用不同方法分析了加筋板侧倾屈曲,并作出了比较;基于上述方法运用计算机程序计算出了箱型梁和几种实船的极限承载能力以及各种加筋板单元的极限强度,并和著名学者的结果进行了比较,结果令人满意;分析了某实船的考虑腐蚀影响的可靠性指标;最后,为了验证理论的精确度,作者参与了钢箱型梁的极限强度试验,通过比较试验数据与理论数据,结果基本一致。

China attaches importance to compare the current quality of education in the humanitic reseanch , but maily stay in institutions of college. In high school, there are much principles in the study of the humanistic quality education . However , it is cack of the practice , the specific dimensions and practical ways and means of research .

我国目前比较重视人文素质教育的研究,但是主要停留在高等院校,中学阶段的人文素质教育的研究还比较缺乏,而且人文素质教育的研究多是提出一些原则,对实践的、具体层面的、可操作的方式与途径的研究则比较少。

The main conclusions of this thesis were as follows: 1 Through compared the original peaks, relative concentration distribution and diagnostic ratios of normal alkanes,Naphthalene, Dibenzothiophene, Fluorene, Phenanthrene, Chrysene and their alkyl PAHs, terpane-sterane biomakers of five crude oils, it was confirmed that five single crude oil was unmatched each other.

通过正构烷烃、萘、菲、芴、二苯并噻吩、屈及其烷基化系列多环芳烃、甾萜类生物标志物的原始谱图比较;组分浓度的分布模式比较;诊断比值的比较;对5种不同地质层次的原油进行了鉴别,结果表明5种原油均为独立油样,这与实际情况相符和;t检验分析的使用,使得溢油鉴别更加科学化,定量化;SPSS模糊聚类的使用,使得各油样之间&亲疏远近&的关系,即&属于的程度不同&的概念得以充分表现;明确了&是非&分明的概念。

There are a lot of interpolation methods, and all the destination is to make interpolated image accomplishes best quality and PSNR. However, color spreading and characters of image itself are different and various. One of our goals is to find the best interpolative method to perfect most of the images. And another point is the operation complexity when we interpolate. At present, we can say that the better image quality you need, the more complicated operation you have.

目前有许多颜色补插的方式,但最终的目的都是要让补插后的影像能够达到最好的品质与PSNR,但是因为影像本身的色彩分布与特性都不一样,变化很多,所以如果能够找到一个针对大部分影像都能达到最好的补插结果,那是我们的目标之一,另一个重点就是补插时的运算复杂度,目前要达到比较好的影像品质,通常都是需要经过比较复杂的运算,在硬体设计上也会比较烦琐,如果在补插后的影像能达到一样的品质,但是在运算量上却能够简化,在补插演算法上也是一大改进。

In order to know irradiant dynamic process we must have excitation crosssection of electron collision with molecule. Incident electron energy is inintermediate range. At low energy, there are several good methods thatcalculate electron collision with molecule for example Variation, R-matrix.

此时入射电子的能量已经达到中能,在低能范围内的电子与分子散射有许多好的方法如变分法、R-矩阵方法,在高能范围内利用Born近似等方法也能得到满意的结果,在中等能量范围的电子与分子碰撞则没有相应的成熟的方法,使用比较多的是密耦(Closing-Couple)方法,这种方法将相互作用势分为静态势、交换势、极化势,在耦合态的选取上比较自由,可以根据实际的问题及分子的特性选取耦合作用比较强的通道,这样既能保证精度又能减少计算量。

So called "likely is" is for under the seriously restricted condition of simple labor and commodity exchange in the early days, both sides know about the approximate labor amount needed for producing the article for exchanging, so it is relatively easy to realize the equate labor exchange; So called "likely not" is for in the process of developed and complicated commodity exchange, it is very difficult for the dealers to compute the labor amount that includes in the article of other side, so the principle of equate labor exchange actually does not inheres the meaning that prevalently use, the comparing interests principle can be the principle that prevalently use, but the equate labor exchange principle just is a kind of special example of comparing interests principle.

所谓&似是&是因为在初期简单劳动及其商品交换的严格限制条件下,双方都知道要生产所交换的商品需要的大致劳动量,等量劳动交换的实现比较容易;所谓&而非&,则是因为在发达复杂的商品交换中,交换者很难统一计量出对方商品所包含的劳动量,等量劳动交换原则事实上就不具有普遍适用的意义。商品交换的比较利益原则才是普遍适用的原则,等量劳动交换原则只是比较利益原则的一种特例。

Reached slightly higher iodine delivery rates with a 300 mg l/ml iopromide solution than with 370 mgI/ml or iopamidol 370 mgl/ml.10The advantage of less concentrated (e.g. 300 mgl/ml) over more concentrated low osmolar contrast media in respect of injection and iodine delivery rates at room temperature and at 37°C was confirmed.11,12 In vivo, a slightly slower intravenous injection of concentrated contrast media may be compensated or even overcompensated because a higher concentration may be maintained after dilution by a given rate of blood flow.

到达递送以这 300 毫克 l│毫升 iopromide 解决评估的些微比较高的碘超过与 370 mgI│毫升或 iopamidol 370 mgl│毫升。10个比较不集中的(举例来说 300 mgl│毫升)结束更集中的低 osmolar 差别媒体的利益在注入和碘递送率方面在室温和 37 °C 被确认了。11,12在活泼地,一个集中差别媒体的些微比较慢静脉内注入可能被偿还或者平坦的 overcompensated 因为较高的集中可能在稀释之后被血流程的给定比率所维护。

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The split between the two groups can hardly be papered over.

这两个团体间的分歧难以掩饰。

This approach not only encourages a greater number of responses, but minimizes the likelihood of stale groupthink.

这种做法不仅鼓励了更多的反应,而且减少跟风的可能性。

The new PS20 solar power tower collected sunlight through mirrors known as "heliostats" to produce steam that is converted into electricity by a turbine in Sanlucar la Mayor, Spain, Wednesday.

聚光:照片上是建在西班牙桑路卡拉马尤城的一座新型PS20塔式太阳能电站。被称为&日光反射装置&的镜子将太阳光反射到主塔,然后用聚集的热量产生蒸汽进而通过涡轮机转化为电力