模型理论

And with these results, I delve further into the theoretical issues of MSP and the concentration is on a special class of MSP-Doob skeleton processes. Generalized limit distribution, limit distribution of these processes and conditions and the expressions for the existence of invariable measure of such processes are provided. Finally, these new results are then applied to queueing theory, reliability theory and inventory theory. A detailed study of GI/G/1 queuing model, parallel connection system model, water reservoir model and perishable inventory model is discussed. These models have already been investigated to some degree. In particular, as mentioned above, some scholars have already successfully applied the transient behavior theory of MSP to these models and transient distributions of main variables in such models have been obtained. However, the limit behavior has not been addressed. In this thesis, limit behavior of main variables in the above-mentioned models is established.

在这个基础上，对马尔可夫骨架过程的理论进一步进行了探讨，将注意力集中于一类特殊的马尔可夫骨架过程Doob骨架过程，给出了这类过程的广义极限分布、极限分布以及不变测度存在性条件和表达式，并应用这些结论于排队论、可靠性理论和存储论等领域-具体分析了GI/G/1排队论系统模型、并联系统模型、水库储水模型、易腐烂物品库存模型——这些模型都不同程度地被许多学者研究过，特别，如前面提及，已有人成功地应用马尔可夫骨架过程的瞬时性态理论，获得了上述各模型中的主要参量过程的瞬时分布，但是，却并没有探讨它们的极限性态——建立了若干关于上述各模犁的主要参量过程的极限性态的结果。

A large number of results from the study indicate that there is a close connection between stock price and trading volume. This paper uses econometric tools, draws on the plasticity and elastic conceptions in the mechanics fields and considers the relation between stock prices and trading volume in different aspects, in order to set up complete stock price plasticity and elasticity theory and apply this theory by carrying on empirical researches.

首先，本文介绍了股价波动的塑性和弹性理论的思想来源，定义股票均衡价格、股价塑性、股价弹性等新概念，通过选取某些个股在不同时段上的股价和成交量的走势图，分别说明了塑性和弹性现象的存在；然后建立了股价的塑性模型、弹性模型及弹塑性交叉模型，应用计量经济学方法对这些模型进行参数估计和检验，对模型进行理论解释，分析模型与现有投资分析理论的一致性；最后是对股票价格塑性模型和弹性模型的应用研究。

Environment radon is mainly from rock and soil in geological environment, but the research is not connected with geological environment now. On the basis of physical field, the theoretical distribution model of radon in soil and exchange model of earth—air are set up by using Fick diffusion law and Dacy law, and then the research of environment radon is linked with geological environment. This paper described how the evry parameter of the theoretical model influence the radon concentration in air. The results of research indicat that molecule diffusion of radon is different from it's eddy form. Under the condition of surface radon source, the model experiment is used to study the transportation and distribution of radon in medium. The data of experiment show the relationship between radon and depth can be described by exponent. If the radioelement is well—distributtion, the concentration of radon in different depth or in different point at the same depth change with time, but the accumulated exhalation amount of radon at different point on the surface of model are close in relative long time. The author studied the exchange of radon between mediums and verified the theoretical models too.

环境氡主要来自岩石、土壤，而目前环境氡研究中与地质环境结合很少，为此作者以物理场为基础，运用气体运移的费克扩散定律和达西定律，建立起壤中氡浓度分布与大地—大气间氡交换理论模型，首次在理论上将环境氡与地质环境结合起来；论文中从理论上讨论了模型中各参数对空气中氡浓度的影响，发现空气中氡运移的分子扩散方式和湍流扩散方式存在明显差异；通过面状氡源条件下的氡运移模型实验，研究了介质中氡的运移与分布，实验数据表明氡浓度随深度的变化规律可用指数函数描述，在放射性元素分布均匀的条件下，介质中不同深度和同一深度不同点的氡浓度随时间而变，但介质表面不同点在较长时间内向空气中累计释放的氡的量是相近的；同时研究了不同介质间氡的交换，并验证了所建立的理论模型；运用理论模型预测青岛市城区壤中氡浓度、江西临川一住宅区空气中氡浓度及江西二个测区的区域空气中氡浓度分布，取得了较好的效果。

The mechanical behavior of Shape Memory Alloys material is tested, and the constitutive model of the SMA is established. A kind of SMA combined rubber isolator is developed, and the isolation effect of the SMA combined rubber isolator for long-span bridge and tall building structures is numerically simulated, from which the adaptive isolation performance and the self-restoring capacity of the SMA combined rubber isolator are verified. A kind of SMA damper is developed, the mechanical behavior of the SMA damper is tested, and the model of restoring force of the SMA damper is established. The theory and method of adaptive control based on the SMA damper for the long-span bridge are built, and the effectiveness and reliability of the adaptive control for the long-span bridge using the SMA damper are verified through numerical simulation and model test. The MRF-04K type magnetorheological damper is developed, the mechanical behavior of the MR damper is tested, and the model of restoring force of the MR damper is established. The theory and method of adaptive control based on the MR damper for the long-span bridge and tall building structures are built, and the effectiveness and reliability of the adaptive control for the long-span bridge and tall building structures using the MR damper are verified through numerical simulation and model test. In addition, the theory and method of sub-structural damage identification for long-span bridge are derived, the influence of soil-structure dynamic interaction on the seismic isolation and control effects with different isolation and control measures and the damage responses and the sliding base-isolation of large structures under the excitation of underground explosion are investigated.

试验研究了形状记忆合金材料的力学性能，建立了SMA材料的本构模型；研制了一种SMA复合橡胶隔震支座，数值仿真分析了应用SMA复合橡胶支座的大跨桥梁和高层建筑结构的隔震效果，从而验证了SMA复合橡胶支座的自适应隔震性能及其震后自恢复能力；研制了一种SMA阻尼器，试验研究了SMA阻尼器的力学性能，建立了SMA阻尼器的恢复力模型，建立了基于SMA阻尼器的大跨桥梁结构自适应控制理论与方法，通过数值仿真与模型试验验证了大跨桥梁结构SMA阻尼器自适应控制的有效性与可靠性；研制了一种MRF-04K型磁流变阻尼器，试验研究了MR阻尼器的力学性能，建立了MR阻尼器的恢复力模型，建立了基于MR阻尼器的大跨桥梁和高层建筑结构的自适应控制理论与方法，通过数值仿真和模型试验验证了大跨桥梁和高层建筑结构MR阻尼器自适应控制的有效性与可靠性；还建立了大跨桥梁结构的子结构损伤识别的理论与方法，研究了土-结构动力相互作用对不同隔震和控制措施的减震控制效果的影响以及地下爆炸波作用下各类大型结构的灾害响应与滑移隔震。

On this basis, according to historical data, apply ANN and differential simulation method to get the quantitatively correlative relations between each production and its own influence factors, and introduce the new methods of prediction for dynamic indexes with gas-field development (The combinatorial prediction method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the method of ANN to select optimally combinatorial prediction models and the ANN prediction method based on genetic algorithm).(2) Base on mathematical programming, combine with quantitative economics and techno-economics, introduce economical indexes to establish production"s distribution optimal model, production"s constitution optimal model and measured production"s constitution optimal model, including multi-objective models and five-years models. Upon this, the optimal project for all gas field and each gas-collected factory can be got. Also, introduce the time value of capitals to improve on these models.(3) Base on the optimal solution theory and algorithm theory for the nonlinear programming problem, introduce the SUMT algorithm and genetic algorithm to study how to solve the models, and on the basis of normal genetic algorithm, make use of auto-adaptively modulating method to improve on normal genetic algorithm; Base on algorithm"s convergence theory and calculation"s complexity theory to analyze seriatim SUMT algorithm"s convergence and genetic algorithms convergence, and compare performance with each other.

在此基础上，利用神经网络方法和微分模拟方法根据历史数据得到各分项产量与其影响因素之间的定量关联关系，并引入气田开发动态指标新的预测方法(基于模糊综合评判的组合预测方法、神经网络优选组合预测模型预测方法以及基于遗传优化的神经网络预测方法)；(2)以数学规划为基础，结合数量经济学和技术经济学，引入经济指标建立产量分配优化模型、产量构成优化模型、措施产量构成优化模型、气田开发多目标规划模型以及五年规划模型，进而获得全气田及各采气厂的最优方案，并引入资金时间价值对五年规划模型进行改进；(3)以非线性规划问题的最优解及算法理论为基础，引入SUMT算法以及遗传算法对模型的求解进行研究，并在原有的遗传算法基础上，引入自适应调整方法对遗传算法进行改进；以算法的收敛性理论和计算复杂性理论为基础，逐一分析SUMT算法以及遗传算法的收敛性，并比较三种算法的优劣性。

Constructed "Singlecenter-sixphase-eightseries" structural theory models for psychological health, included support structure theory model, 2-pole, as well as several psychological health structural theory models: 4 areas, 8 level, acetabuliform, sphericity, 24 aspects, 72 special, 144 elements.8. Broaden the road towards popular development of psychological health.

构建了心理健康一心六相八系结构理论模型；包括支柱结构理论模型：2极结构理论模型；还有心理健康的4领域、8层次、碟型、球状、24方面、72专项、144要素多种结构理论模型。8、拓宽了心理健康测评的大众化发展之路。

This paper has done a deeply research on the evaluative method, which focus on maintaining and ensuring the camion. After deeply analyzing the maintain theory of army equipment and the stratagem 's characteristic and combining the current systems engineering evaluating theories and methods, it has analyzed and solved all limitations that coming forth when a single model is used to evaluate the maintain capacity. After analyzing and ameliorating the judgment of AHP's coherence, the calculation of the expert power value and the optimizing of the more-extreme judging model, a new calculation method, the multidimensional complex calculation theory, is presented, which much fits for the evaluative calculation of the camion. The new theory's feasibility and the evaluation's reliability have been proved in theory in this paper. This paper also analyses the principle and the program, which is about building a camion evaluating system. According to the multidimensional complex calculation theory, an evaluative model has been built. Applying the levels analytical method, this paper fixes on the calculation of every target's power, brings the optimization allot precept of macro spatial resource, optimizes the resource of the maintainability of theater of operations' vehicle, which offers a theory foundation for optimizing of the resource space. The research not only brings out a uniform standard for the evaluating of the maintain ability of the camion, but also presents a theory foundation and method for perfecting the camion maintain system.

本文对军用车辆维修保障能力评估的方法论进行了深入研究，在理论上通过对军事装备维修理论及战略特性的深入剖析，结合现有系统工程评估理论、评估方法的特点，分析解决了应用单一模型评估装备维修能力问题的各种缺陷，就AHP法判断矩阵一致性判定，群策专家权重值的确认及多元评判模型的优化进行了研究和改进，形成了适应军事车辆维修保障能力评估应用的新算法--多元复合算法理论，对这一创新评价理论的科学性及评估可靠性进行了理论证明和算法应用；研究分析了建立军用汽车维修保障能力评估指标体系的原则和程序，并按照多元复合算法的理论，建立了车辆维修保障能力评估模型；应用层次分析法的原理，明确了各指标权重的算法，提出了宏观空间维修资源优化分配方案，优化了战区车辆装备维修能力资源空间，为某一具体车辆装备维修能力形成所需维修资源空间的优化提供了理论依据；本文的研究既为军用车辆装备维修保障能力评估提供了统一的衡量标准，也为军事装备维修保障系统的进一步完善提供了理论依据及方法手段。

The first part is the introduction, which generally introduces the research purpose and significance of this thesis, the summary of the financial pre-warning researches both home and abroad, and the research main contexts and research methods; The second part is the comparison on the financial pre-warning methods existent, which compares the different methods by categories, makes a further analysis on the limits of existent methods, and proposes the improve thoughts of this research based on that; The third part is the basic theory, which makes a summary of the referent theories exerted on the research, and exposit the comparing mechanism of the grey prediction theory and the artificial neural network method concise; The fourth part is the frame work of the model, which illuminates the research designs step by step, such as the definition of the financial crisis, the method of sample select, the select and definition of the pre-warning variables, and makes an exposition of the establishment procedures of the whole models at last; The fifth part is the financial pre-warning based on the theory of grey prediction and artificial neural network, which mainly demonstrate the model establishment in the concrete, dividing into four part to carry out the part of pragmatic research integrally, building of indexes system, establishment of BP neural networks, dynamic financial pre-warning and test, analysis on the pre-warning result; The sixth part is conclusion, which sums up the main results of the whole research, clarifies the innovative points, and makes a discussion on the limits and future study directions of the research in this thesis.

其中，第一部分为导论，总括性概述本文的研究目的与意义，国内外研究综述，以及本文的研究内容和方法；第二部分为现有财务预警研究方法剖析，通过对现有预警方法进行分类比较，进一步分析现有预警方法的局限性，并在此基础上提出本文研究的改进思路；第三部分基本理论，对本文研究中运用的相关理论进行扼要概述，并简要阐述灰色预测理论与人工神经方法的融合机理；第四部分为模型研究框架，逐步阐释模型对财务困境的界定，样本数据的选取方法，预警变量的选取与定义等各个部分的研究设计，并对整体模型的构建步骤进行简要阐述；第五部分为基于灰色神经网络模型的财务预警，主要论述动态预警模型的具体实现过程，分模型指标体系的建立，BP神经网络的建立，动态财务预警与检验，以及预警结果分析四个部分全面阐述本文实证分析过程；第六部分为结论，总结本文研究得到的主要研究结论，以及本文研究中的创新之处，并对论文的不足与后续发展研究进行探讨。

The development of the forecast models shows that the foreign forecast models evolved from monocyclic ones to multi-cyclic ones emphasized the models'vertical development,whereas Chinese models such as the Weng's model and many others emphasized their horizontal development.

摘要追溯了石油峰值理论的起源，对国内外一系列关于石油峰值理论模型的定量研究表明，石油峰值理论模型大体有3种类型：①基于生命有限体系的生命模型；②基于概率论和统计学理论的随机模型；③基于生产实践和理论推理的广义数学模型。

Density Functional Theory method was used to optimize the geometries of 209 PCDE molecules, 209 PBDE molecules and 75 PCDD molecules at the B3LYP/6-31G* level. Using computed structural parameters as theoretical descriptors, the forward stepwise multiple regression technique was adopted to obtain QSPR models of environmental partition properties for these POPs by using GQSARF 2.0 and SPSS12.0 for windows programs. The obtained QSPR models are as follows:(1) QSPR models for predicting subcooled liquid vapor pressure, n-octanol/water partition coefficients lgK_(ow and subcooled liquid water solubilities -lgS_(w,l of PCDEs, of which correlative coefficients (R~2) are 0.988, 0.958 and 0.959 and the root-mean-square-error of estimation are 0.134, 0.116 and 0.327 respectively.(2) QSPR models of lgPL and n-octanol/air partition coefficients lgK_(oa for PBDEs, which both contain three structural parameters. The values of R2 for the two models are both 0.997 while the values of RMSEE are 0.073 and 0.062 respectively.(3) QSPR models of lgKow and–lgS_ for PCDEs, which both have one variable (mean molecular polarizability,α). The values of R~2 for the two models are 0.978 and 0.866 and the values of RMSEE are 0.300 and 0.270 respectively.(4) The molecular structures of 24 substituted naphthaline compounds were optimized using Hartree-Fock and DFT methods at four different levels and the same means was used to obtain four three-parameter (EHOMO, q~+ andα) QSPR models of lgK_. The model at the HF/6-311G** level is the best one of which R2 is 0.9662 and RMSEE is 0.380.(5) QSPR study for environmental partition properties of PCDEs was also performed using position of Cl substitution method in which simple parameters of substitution position were taken as descriptors. The multiple linear regression was performed with GQSARF 2.0 and SSPS 12.0 for windows programs to obtain QSPR models of lgP_L, lgK_ and–lgS_ for PCDEs of which R~2 are 0.991, 0.983 and 0.965 and RMSEE are 0.311, 0.100 and 0.300 respectively.

采用密度泛函理论方法在B3LYP/6-31G*水平上对PCDEs、PBDEs和PCDDs的分子结构进行了全优化计算，以计算得到的量子化学参数作为理论描述符，采用GQSARF 2.0和SPSS 12.0 for windows统计程序进行正向逐步回归分析，建立了这些POPs的环境分配性质的QSPR模型：(1) PCDEs的过冷液体蒸汽压、正辛醇/水分配系数lgK_(ow和水溶解度-lgS_(w，l的QSPR模型，这3个QSPR模型的相关系数(R2)分别为0.988、0.958和0.959，估计的均方根误差分别为0.134、0.116和0.327；(2) PBDEs的lgPL和正辛醇/空气分配系数lgK_(oa的QSPR模型，这两个模型都包含三个分子结构参数，其R~2都为0.997，RSMEE分别为0.073和0.062；(3) PCDDs类化合物的lgK_和-lgS_w的QSPR模型，两个模型都只含一个变量，其R~2分别为0.978和0.866，RSMEE分别为0.300和0.270；(4)采用Hartree-Fock和DFT方法，在4种不同水平上优化计算了24个取代萘系列化合物的分子结构，采用上述同样的方法分别建立了四种水平上的三变量lgK_模型，通过比较得到，在HF/6-311G**水平计算得到的模型最好，R为0.966，RSMEE为0.380；(5)同时，采用氯原子取代位置方法对PCDEs的环境分配性质进行QSPR研究，建立了PCDEs的lgPL、lgK_和-lgS_的QSPR模型，其R~2分别为0.991、0.983和0.965，RSMEE分别为0.110、0.100和0.300。

They weren't aggressive, but I yelled and threw a rock in their direction to get them off the trail and away from me, just in case.

他们没有侵略性，但我大喊，并在他们的方向扔石头让他们过的线索，远离我，以防万一。

In slot 2 in your bag put wrapping paper, quantity does not matter in this case.

在你的书包里槽2把包装纸、数量无关紧要。