概率

This course explores the history and debates over codifying the laws of probability, how probability theory applies to specific cognitive processes, how it relates to the human understanding of causality, and how new computational approaches to causal modeling provide a framework for understanding human probabilistic reasoning.

本课程探索关于概率法则形成的历史和争论，概率理论如何运用于具体的认知过程，它与人类对因果的理解有着怎样的关系，以及新的关于因果模型计算方法怎样为理解人类的概率推理过程提供了框架。

The result shows that the equalmatching characteristic of 10Ni5CrMoV steel welded joint is prominent.The probability of equalmatching is 48.11%,as well as,that of undermatching and overmatching are 47.55% and 4.34%,respectively.The mean-value of strength matching coefficient is nearly higher than its lower ...

计算结果表明，10N i5CrMoV钢焊接接头的等强匹配特征明显，等强匹配概率为48.11%，低强失配和超强失配概率分别为47.55%和4.34%；强度匹配系数均值偏下限，为0.955；由于母材强度数据的标准差比焊缝要大，约为1.54倍，从而使得强度匹配系数离散度较大；此外，焊接接头强度匹配系数小于0.86的概率为2.96%，可能会导致焊接接头产生冷裂纹。

The smaller the tail index of fat-tailed distribution,the fatter the tail.

根据第二章给出的尾概率公式计算收益率分布的上下尾概率，并且绘出相应的尾概率图。

The upper bound of error probability is used as the criteria of clustering and the evaluation of the clustering result. On the basis of initiatory clustering based on distance functions, the algorithms named"pick-over"and"fill-up"are proposed to minimize the upper bound of error probability.

我们将聚类准则即模式相似性测度问题和聚类结果的评价指标统一为总的最小错误概率上界，在算法实现上，首先先用基于距离函数的聚类方法得到初分类，然后采用基于最小错误概率的&抽取&和&回填&算法得到使总的错误概率上界最小的聚类结果的分析方法。

Monte Carlo is a method that approximately solves mathematic or physical problems by statistical sampling theory. When comes to Bayesian classification, it firstly gets the conditional probability distribution of the unlabelled classes based on the known prior probability. Then, it uses some kind of sampler to get the stochastic data that satisfy the distribution as noted just before one by one. At last, it can obtain the posterior probability distibution of each unlabelled classes by analysing these stochastic data.

蒙特卡罗是一种采用统计抽样理论近似求解数学或物理问题的方法，它在用于解决贝叶斯分类时，首先根据已知的先验概率获得各个类标号未知类的条件概率分布，然后利用某种抽样器，分别得到满足这些条件分布的随机数据，最后统计这些随机数据，就可以得到各个类标号未知类的后验概率分布。

Then we systematically study state transition probability of two-unit series system and paralleled system and stable availability of system, and drew the following conclusions:Firstly, we present the partial differential equation which satisfies state transition probability of the two-unit series system, and proves that state transition probability satisfy the equation, and are their minimal nonnegative solutions.

然后对两个不同型部件、一个修理设备组成的串联系统和并联系统的状态转移概率，以及系统的稳态可用度进行系统研究，得到了如下一些结果。第一，对两个不同型部件、一个修理设备组成的串联系统，其寿命和修理时间的分布函数的各种情况，给出了状态转移概率所满足的偏微分方程组，证明了状态转移概率满足的方程，并且是这些方程的最小非负解。

With the gradient-based re-estimation method, comparable recognition rate is achieved to that with Baum-Welch algorithm.

由于似然概率是模型参数的复杂函数，计算似然概率时尚且要借助前向概率的迭代方法，更何况其偏导数。

In order to solve dynamic, complicated and uncertain problems, multi-agents based distributed intelligence decision support systems, description and decomposition of complicated decision tasks, and cooperation and reasoning among multi-agents are elaborated in this paper. The details are given as follows. 1. Agent and ABDIDSS modelsIn allusion to the current problems of research on agents theory models, payoff and probability factors are introduced on the basis of mental state models of classical BDI of agent and joint BDI of multi-agents in this paper, mental state models of individual agents and joint metal state models of group agents based on payoff and probability factors are built up. Introducing payoff and probability factors satisfies requirements of uncertainty and self-benefit of agents to the environments.

本文针对动态的、复杂的以及不确定问题，以基于多Agents的分布式智能决策支持系统及复杂决策任务的描述与分解、多Agents之间的协作与推理机制为研究内容，具体的研究内容如下： 1、Agent和ASDIDSS模型针对当前多Agents理论模型研究存在的问题，文章在经典Agent的BDI以及联合BDI等心智状态模型基础上引入效用与概率因子，建立基于效用与概率因子的个体Agent的心智状态模型以及群组Agent联合心智状态模型，引入效用与概率因子满足Agent对环境的不确定性以及自利性的要求。

Simply assuming that under different conditions, gene expression levels have three regulation states, i.e., up-regulation, down-regulation and non-regulation states, we can probabilistically establish a model of gene regulation states to compute gene regulation probabilities under different conditions.

简单假设在两种不同的实验条件下被调控的基因表达水平表现为三种调控状态，即上调控状态、下调控状态和非显著调控状态，我们使用概率统计方法对基因调控状态进行建模。在该模型的基础上，我们应用三种参数概率估计方法对基因调控概率进行估计。

Analyzing the unsureness of the probability of the fault of gravely risk equipments inpetrochemical corporation, introduced fuzzy theory, bring forward expressing the probabilityby fuzzy number, to reduce the difficulty of getparms, and studying the subjection function toget the result more scientific and exactler.

分析了石化企业重大危险设备事故发生概率的不确定性，引入了模糊数学的基本理论，提出用模糊数表示事件的发生概率，以减小获取事件发生概率精确值的难度，并对重大危险设备的隶属函数进行了研究，使结果描述更加科学、准确。

However, as the name（read－only memory）implies, CD disks cannot be written onorchanged in any way.

然而，正如其名字所指出的那样，CD盘不能写，也不能用任何方式改变其内容。

Galvanizes steel pallet is mainly export which suits standard packing of European Union, the North America. galvanizes steel pallet is suitable to heavy rack. Pallet surface can design plate type, corrugated and the gap form, satisfies the different requirements.

镀锌钢托盘多用于出口，替代木托盘，免薰蒸，符合欧盟、北美各国对出口货物包装材料的法令要求；喷涂钢托盘适用于重载上货架之用，托盘表面根据需要制作成平板状、波纹状及间隔形式，满足不同的使用要求。