机率

"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

投资与投机之间永远是一线之隔，尤其是当所有市场的参与者都沉浸在欢愉的气氛当中时更是如此，再也没有比大笔不劳而获的金钱更让人失去理性，在经历过这类经验之后，再正常的人也会像参加舞会的灰姑娘一样被冲昏了头，他们明知在舞会中多待一会也就是继续将大笔的资金投入到投机的活动之上，南瓜马车与老鼠驾驶现出原形的机率就越高，但他们还是舍不得错过这场盛大舞会的任何一分钟，所有人都打算继续待到最后一刻才离开，但问题是这场舞会中的时钟根本就没有指针！

The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight.

投资与投机之间永远是一线之隔，尤其是当所有市场的参与者都沈浸在欢愉的气氛当中时更是如此，再也没有比大笔不劳而获的金钱更让人失去理性，在经历过这类经验之后，再正常的人也会像参加舞会的灰姑娘一样被冲昏了头，他们明知在舞会中多待一会-也就是继续将大笔的资金投入到投机的活动之上，南瓜马车与老鼠驾驶现出原形的机率就越高，但他们还是舍不得错过这场盛大舞会的任何一分钟，所有人都打算继续待到最后一刻才离开，但问题是这场舞会中的时钟根

"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

C n！ h9 u5 O C： C昆山，bbs，论坛，昆山BBS，昆山论坛，kb，kbcool 投资与投机之间永远是一线之隔，尤其是当所有市场的参与者都沉浸在欢愉的气氛当中时更是如此，再也没有比大笔不劳而获的金钱更让人失去理性，在经历过这类经验之后，再正常的人也会像参加舞会的灰姑娘一样被冲昏了头，他们明知在舞会中多待一会也就是继续将大笔的资金投入到投机的活动之上，南瓜马车与老鼠驾驶现出原形的机率就越高，但他们还是舍不得错过这场盛大舞会的任何一分钟，所有人都打算继续待到最后一刻才离开，但问题是这场舞会中的时钟根本就没有指针！

Theline separating investment and speculation, which is never bright andclear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants haverecently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large dosesof effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normallysensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at theball. They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuingto speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to thecash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bringon pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a singleminute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participantsall plan to leave just seconds before midnight.

投资与投机之间永远是一线之隔，尤其是当所有市场的参与者都沉浸在欢愉的气氛当中时更是如此，再也没有比大笔不劳而获的金钱更让人失去理性，在经历过这类经验之后，再正常的人也会像参加舞会的灰姑娘一样被冲昏了头，他们明知在舞会中多待一会-也就是继续将大笔的资金投入到投机的活动之上，南瓜马车与老鼠驾驶现出原形的机率就越高，但他们还是舍不得错过这场盛大舞会的任何一分钟，所有人都打算继续待到最后一刻才离开，但问题是这场舞会中的时钟根本就没有指针！

Adopting longitudinal waterproofed technology, it can prevent water from moving along the cable's length

采用纵向阻水技术，阻止水份纵向迁移，降低水树发生机率。

When the responsibility is clear, apologies increase the chance of plaintiffs and defendants reaching a settlement.

当责任是明确的，道歉会增加原告和被告达成一致的解决的机率。

When you face a team as many times as the Yankees/Red Sox play each other and with the talented scouts and the amount of video-tape between both teams, the possibility for a starting pitcher to be dominant is slim.

当你一年要碰上同一支球队许多次(如洋基和红袜一年都要对上许多次)，而且又有很好的球探报告以及大量的录影带来分析对手时，先发投手能够完全主宰对手的机率并不高。

For example, insurance is the assessment of probability and damage of an accident, and assessing the value of settlement of claims. This value is seen as the measurement of accidental damage.

以保险为例，保险即是评估事故发生机率，与估算事故发生造成损失所获得之理赔金额，理赔金额被视为事故损失具体化的成果，额度高低表现出损失的大小。

An introduction to the use of probability theory to capture aspects of cognitive processes.

介绍机率理论的运用，以掌握认知过程的各方面。

" There is no critical boundary between speculation and investment, especially when all participators are immersed in delighted atmosphere, There is nothing so easier than large amount of unearned money that can lead person to loss the logos. Even more normal person will lose his head, after such kind of experience mentioned. The more time they stay in the dancing party, that is invest much capital into the speculative operation, the larger the proportion of The Pumpkin carriage and mouse driver show the hoof is. All of them intend to stay to the last minute rather than miss any minute of the dancing party. But the point is there is no pointer in the clock at all." Buffett wrote these words to shareholders in 2000 years.

&股神&巴菲特2000年写给股东的信中写道：&投资与投机之间永远是一线之隔，尤其是当所有市场的参与者都沉浸在欢愉的气氛当中时更是如此，再也没有比大笔不劳而获的金钱更让人失去理性，在经历过这类经验之后，再正常的人也会像参加舞会的灰姑娘一样被冲昏了头，他们明知在舞会中多待一会-也就是继续将大笔的资金投入到投机的活动之上，南瓜马车与老鼠驾驶现出原形的机率就越高，但他们还是舍不得错过这场盛大舞会的任何一分钟，所有人都打算继续待到最后一刻才离开，但问题是这场舞会中的时钟根本就没有指针！&

In the United States, chronic alcoholism and hepatitis C are the most common ones.

在美国，慢性酒精中毒，肝炎是最常见的。

If you have any questions, you can contact me anytime.

如果有任何问题，你可以随时联系我。