机率

This paper studies the default predicted model of Taiwan small and medium industry. Our empirical model shows that the rise of ROA, asset turnover ratio, GDP growth rate and inflation rate can reduce the default probability.

本篇论文旨在研究台湾中小型企业的逾期率预测模型，我们的实证模型指出：ROA、资产周转率、GDP成长率以及通货膨胀率等上升时，会降低逾期率的机率；相对的，融资率的增加则会提高逾期的机率。

There are two findings summarized from previous studies:(1) the least squares estimator is a common choice of researchers, but under an unequal probability design, the estimator is biased,(2) the probability weighted estimator is consistent but may have a large variance.

过去的研究发现：(1)在不等机率抽样时，一般常用的最小平方法所得到的回归参数估计式并非不偏估计式；(2)机率加权最小平方法可以改善不偏性，然却增加估计的变异程度。

By the doubly-robust property, the estimator is consistent if either the selection probability model or the joint distribution of covariates is correctly specified.

此双稳健性质保证只要选择机率模型或是共变数的联合分配是正确的情形下，扩大逆机率加权估计量是具一致性。

In this paper, fuzzy theory, Markov chain and RFM model are integrated to evaluate customer lifetime values. This approach calculates the profit contribution of customers in every purchasing situation. Firstly, customer purchasing state is updated contiguously by fuzzy theory and RFM model with transition matrix which represents the probabilities among purchasing states. Then the profit contribution of each period is computed by using revenue and cost data. Finally, the profit contribution of each customer is accumulated through some discounting consideration. This will construct the final customer lifetime values.

本研究结合模糊理论、马可夫链、和RFM(recency， frequency， monetary； RFM)模式，配合折现模式来计算顾客终身价值，其中模糊理论及RFM模型定义顾客之购买状态，马可夫链则推算顾客在每期购买状态改变的机率，然后推估出顾客在每期交易的转换机率，再结合产品的收益与成本资料，算出顾客在各期对公司的利润贡献，最后将各期的利润贡献折现加总，计算出各种购买状况下的顾客价值，利用此顾客价值就可指出哪些是对企业有利的顾客。

Proper combinations of number of outcomes, discrete step size, and scaling of the random variable, the discrete cumulate percentage distribution and discrete percentage density will converge to the continuous cumulative probability distribution and probability density function respectively.

适当之出现或试验次数或取样数量、散化阶梯大小、随机变数缩放比例可使离散累积百分比分布及离散百分比密度趋近于连续的累积机率分布及机率密度函数。

After introducing the set and probability theory, we will explain the random variable, discrete and continuous density distributions to students. Then, the students could learn the statistics in the following course.

从集合、基础机率理论出发，接着介绍随机变量，紧接之各式常用离散与连续机率密度分布，配合实例应用，让学生理解各项组成间之关连性，以为接下来之统计学之学习背景知识。

The results show that both the incidence and prevalence rates are increasing over 1996 to 2003; the incidence rate, prevalence rate, survival function, mean onset age, and mean remaining life after onset of females are all larger than those of males. In addition, females are less biologically aged than males at the same chronological age by 1.3279 years in terms of the empirical distribution function of onset age.

研究结果显示，首发率和盛行率皆有逐年上升的趋势，而女性患者之首发率、盛行率、存活机率、首发后之平均余命皆高於男性；此外，若单纯以男、女性患者之首发年龄而论，其经验机率密度函数显示：男性患者之生理年龄比同年龄的女性患者早衰1.3279岁。

However, after some modifications, we found that the Jackknife and Chao's estimates can be used to provide reliable predictions for the number of species of a finite population, given that part of the population is observed.

利用涵盖机率的概念发现Jackknife与Chao皆在抽出特定比例的样本数时，估计值涵盖母体种类数之机率值非常接近1。

An ''impossible'' event has a probability of exactly 0, and a ''certain'' event has a probability of 1, but the converses are not always true: probability 0 events are not always impossible, nor probability 1 events certain.

但反推并不成立，也就是说机率值为0的事件不表示它就是一个'不可能'事件，同理，机率值为1的事件不表示它就一定发生。

The approach was utilized for the Kolmogorov - Smirnov goodness of fit test.

％资料仅适合二项分配，当成功机率为 32.5 ％和成功机率为 12 。

In the United States, chronic alcoholism and hepatitis C are the most common ones.

在美国，慢性酒精中毒，肝炎是最常见的。

If you have any questions, you can contact me anytime.

如果有任何问题，你可以随时联系我。