最佳策略

In general, this paper includes several parts, shown as the following: The first part summarizes the background and outline of stock index future and introduce briefly its local status and CSI 300 stock index future contract. The second part has a retrospect of the main academic papers of both local or overseas, and also a discussion of relevant hedge strategies and models, to lay a solid theoretical foundation for the empirical analysis and test for the operation process of hedge in latter parts. The third part outlines the principle, key factors and real operation process of hedge. Moreover, it makes a empirical analysis on popular hedge models with HK Hang Seng index. In the end, it test the hedge effect of trading on IF0706, CSI 300 stock index future contract, with CCB select-growth securities fund as present underlying. The fourth and also the last part, explores how to define hedge ratio in china mainland market. It includes the stability test ofβfor local securities portfolio, adjustment of historicalβand best data length for estimation of historicalβ, etc. Also, the thesis makes some beneficial experiments on the definition of best data length for estimation of historicalβ, survey of fashion forβand variation for industryβs. Fortunately, it's got some meaningful results.

按照以上研究思路，本论文论述由以下几个部分构成：第一部分，简要概述股指期货产生的背景和基本情况，对国内股指期货进程和沪深300股指期货合约进行简单介绍；第二部分，回顾海内外股指期货避险研究的主要文献，讨论相关避险策略及避险模型，为后面套期保值策略如何有效运用的实证分析和检验提供理论基础和依据；第三部分，对套期保值的原理、关键因素及实际流程进行概述，并采用香港恒生指数对常用的几种避险模型进行实证分析，最后一揽子以建信优选成长股票型基金为现货标的，实际检验以沪深300股指期货模拟交易IF0706产品进行对冲时的套期保值效果；第四部分，探讨国内确定避险比率的过程，包括国内股票组合β值的稳定性检验、历史β值的修正及估计历史β值的最佳数据长度等，通过数据分析，本文在寻找估计β值的最佳数据长度和考察风格、行业β值的差异上做了较为有益的尝试，并得到了有助于现实操作的结果。

Suppose the fluctuation of security market could be anticipated, the CPPI tactics has the best performance in the bull market, the TIPI and CM tactics is noneffective; but in the bear market, the CPPI and TIPI tactics is effective, the CM tactics is noneffective.

假设股市波动是可预期的，在股市处于单调多头市场里时，CPPI策略是有效的最佳动态PI策略，CM策略，TIPI策略是无效的；而在单调空头市场里CPPI策略与TIPI策略是有效的，CM策略是无效的。3。

In the traditional reservoir operation system, in general, we use the rule curve as a method of operation, and the reservoir rule curve is the result of system simulation method. Due to the regular and simple rule curve operation unable to satisfy the actual demand effectively. In order to improve the defect, there are many system planning theories and optimum seeking methods to find the optimum operation strategies. The reservoir operators are uncomfortable with the complicated optimum operation strategies. In this article the fuzzy inference model is used to establish a simple and effective operation rule for the reservoir operator.

在传统的水库操作系统中，一般都使用操作规线为操作方式，水库操作规线是系统模拟法所获得的结果，由於规律、简单的规线操作方式往往无法有效满足实际需求，为了改善传统操作上的缺点，近多有利用系统规划之理论，应用各种优选方法求取最佳操作策略，系统最佳操作策略其模式复杂，水库操作人员不易接受，故本文即以模糊推论系统建立一简单有效之操作规则予水库操作人员，作为水库操作放水之依据。

To find the best strategy for prevention and treatment of silicosis and reduce the incidence and mortality of silicosis.

目的 寻找防治矽肺的最佳策略，降低矽肺的发生率和死亡率。

Although Fisher wrote before the mathematical theory of games had been developed, his theory incorporates the essential feature of a game—that the best strategy to adopt depends on what others are doing.

虽然菲希尔早在数学上的博弈理论建立起来之前就进行了其著述，但他的理论已襄括了游戏的本质特征——即所能采用的最佳策略取决于他们在做什么。

Although Fisher wrote before the mathematical theory of games had been developed, his theory incorporates the essential feature of a game that the best strategy to adopt depends on what others are doing.

虽然费希尔是在数学博弈理论建立起来之前发表其著述的，但他的理论已囊括了博弈的本质特征——即所能采用的最佳策略取决于他人在做什么。

The maximization of social and economical goals results in the complexity of ecosystem being decreased, high trophic levels species being depleted, and low trophic level species being increased.

综合考虑经济、社会和生态效应的最佳管理策略能满足渔业和保育目标的平衡，有望成为最佳的管理策略。

Because if it'strue that our best option at the moment is to prevent CO2 emissionswith something like the Kyoto protocol, with its constraints oneconomic activity, and its enormous cost of hundreds of billions ofdollars or whatever it is, then that is already a disaster by anyreasonable measure.

因此我们所能采取的最佳策略是通过《京都议定书》那样的东西阻止二氧化碳的排放，而这样的措施会对经济产生极大的制约，并要花费我们数以亿计的金钱——这么说来，全球变暖已经是一场空前的灾难。

Choose between playing against the clock in Adventure Mode or use your best strategies to beat the Untimed Mode.

选择之间的公平对时钟在冒险模式，或使用您的最佳策略，以击败untimed模式。

The Secretary of State and a selective group of her best strategists had come in the previous day.

国务秘书和她的最佳策略选择组来到了前一天。

Plunder melds and run with this jewel!

掠夺melds和运行与此宝石！

My dream is to be a crazy growing tree and extend at the edge between the city and the forest.

此刻，也许正是在通往天国的路上，我体验着这白色的晕旋。