投资过剩

Monetary easing--even unorthodox--is like pushing on a string when （1） the problems of the economy are of insolvency/credit rather than just illiquidity;（2） there is a global glut of capacity （housing, autos and consumer durables and massive excess capacity, because of years of overinvestment by China, Asia and other emerging markets）, while strapped firms and households don't react to lower interest rates, as it takes years to work out this glut;（3） deflation keeps real policy rates high and rising while nominal policy rates are close to zero; and （4） high yield spreads are still 2,000 basis points relative to safe Treasuries in spite of zero policy rates.

因为目前存在四方面问题：（1）金融层面的问题不仅是流动性不足，还在于资不抵债；（2）由于中国、亚洲及其他新兴市场持续多年的过剩投资，在住房、汽车、耐用消费品等领域形成了庞大的全球性产能过剩；（3）尽管名义政策利率已接近零点，但通缩却使得实际政策利率居高不下，甚至继续上升；（4）尽管政策利率接近零点，但高风险的高收益证券与安全的美国国债之间的利差仍高达2000个基点。

This unbalanced situation resulted in Japanese deindustrialization such as surplus investment in facility, the lost of workers, and domestic demand deflation.

由於对内外投资收支不均衡，造成日本巿场产生产业空洞化、设备投资过剩、人材流失、内需紧缩等隐忧。

The exterior unbalance expression of Chinese economy is in " exit - investment " depend on model the favourable balance of a huge sum below economic growth pattern and the foreign exchange reserve that increase considerably, in-house unbalance expression is in " tall deposit "," high investment " with " low spending " the yield below the loop inside system can be superfluous cause constant deflationary pressure.

中国经济的外部失衡表现为在"出口-投资"依赖型经济增长模式下的巨额顺差和大幅增长的外汇储备，内部失衡表现为在"高储蓄"、"高投资"与"低消费"的体制内循环下的产能过剩导致一定的通货紧缩压力。

The hyperbola discount model is utilized to introduce the theory of cognitive bias into the study of the problem. From the perspective of microcosmic, the economic entity enterprises are analyzed. The conclusion is drawn that the enterprises will invest with the impulse when the economics is prosperity, and procrastinate investment lingeringly when the economics is at a low ebb because of the cognitive bias β.

文中利用双曲线贴现模型，将认知偏差理论引入到产能过剩问题的研究中来，从微观视角分析了企业作为市场中的微观主体的投资行为，得出结论：由于存在认知偏差系数β，企业会在经济过热时出现冲动投资，在经济处于低谷时拖延投资，导致产能与市场需求的非同步变化，最终形成产能过剩、产能不足。

Sub-stock inventory of consumer goods and raw materials inventory, a huge economic stimulus plan on the production of consumer goods companies may be more indirect role in stimulating, over-investment may be even out of private consumption and investment in the future could lead to overcapacity.

分股的消费品和原材料库存，一个巨大的消费品公司生产的经济刺激计划，库存可能会更间接的刺激作用，过度投资，甚至可能是出于私人消费和对未来的投资可能会导致产能过剩。

You need to live on less than you make and invest the surplus well.

你需要的生活费不到你和投资过剩的好。

This is not to deny that China has seen overinvestment in some sectors, such as steel and cars.

不可否认，中国的钢铁、汽车等行业确实存在投资过剩。

Chronic overinvestment has, it is argued, resulted in vast excess capacity and falling returns on capital.

人们认为长期过度投资，造成巨大的产能过剩和投资回报低下。

During 2009, new investment in industries with overcapacity was relatively modest; most money went into infrastructure.

在2009年期间，对产能过剩的新投资相对适度；多数投资流入了基础设施。

The cure for excessive investment is the exit of capital from what my former colleague Steve Galbraith calls the 'capital pigs'- overcapitalized industries - and the redeployment of that capital into new products and new industries that can use it productively.

投资过剩的解决之道就在于，资本退出那些资本过剩的行业，流向那些可以有效运用资本的新产品和新产业。

No clear conclusions can be made about the predictie alidity of specific measures, they found, except for criteria for the underuse of drugs for cardioascular disease.

除了心血管病不合理用药标准外，对于特定评价方法的预测效度没有明确的结论。

The third and last is that almost all of them, being infinite in number, have been impostures, and by idle and crafty brains merely contrived and feigned after the event past.

第三、即最后一点是：几乎所有这些不胜枚举的预言都是欺人之谈，都是在事件过后由无聊而狡猾的脑筋推测与凭空捏造的。