层间的

At last, the research test the logistic regression model with sample dada. The results are as the following:(1)Based on the time series dada, the financial early-warning model contains more crucial information reflecting the dada characters, so it can avoid the obvious logic problem in the other analysis such as single section dada and multi-section dada analysis. The test result indicate that the new model have a more accuracy than others.(2) the research adopt the global principal component analysis to settle the problem of multiple collinearity, so the model would be more normative and precise.(3)the early-warning model uses the backward method to regress, so it gets a terser model of only five variables, but it still has a precise forecasting ability.

通过本文研究说明：（1）建立以时序数据为基础的财务危机预警模型，提高了样本中重要财务趋势特征的信息含量，从而克服了国内外单截面及多重截面分析中普遍存在的明显逻辑问题，检验结果表明，利用时序数据建立的logistic财务危机判别模型较截面数据基础模型的判别准确率要高；（2）采用全局主成份分析方法解决了模型中因子间的多重共线性问题，这一处理使logistic回归方法应用的规范度和严谨度得到明显改善；（3）我们采用向后逐步回归的办法进行回归，使模型大大得到了简化，其中只包含五个自变量，但是它的整体预测准确性却仍然比较高，使模型更具有实用性。