大灾难

A distinguished sightseer, Paul Krugman, returned to the LSE on June 8th to give the annual Lionel Robbins memorial lectures. Mr Krugman, who gave the Robbins lectures 21 years ago, tried to answer two big questions in the course of his three talks. Why did economists not foresee calamity?

六月八日，一名著名的参观者Paul Krugman回到LSE为一年一度的Lionel Robbins纪念活动做了演讲。21年前也做过Robbins纪念演讲的Mr Krugman也试着在他的三次演讲中，解答两大问题：为什么经济学家没有预见到灾难？

Particularly in the first two months of this year, China was hit by the disaster of sleet rarely seen in history.

说句老实话，实现这一目标是不轻易的，非凡是今年头两个月我们碰到了历史上罕见的冰雪灾难，这就给控制物价带来更大的压力。

Go on a two—day trip climb all the way up the mountain look forward to doing make fun of have difficulty in doing sth play for fun look around take good care of a wall of water up and down be up to sb up to fight for one's life look up a large number 出 of as a result of be made up of in the center of town a great many /deal the greatest disaster develop into before the deadline take every opportunity a newly published book believe it or not be in danger out of danger make a joke on sb take place find sb.

on fire look into each other's eyes tree after tree 中学学科网学海泛舟系列资料进行两天的旅行一直爬到山顶期待，盼望取笑，嘲弄做……事有困难好玩环顾四周好好照顾一堵墙似的洪水忽浮忽沉，来来往往由决定直到，到…为止拼死搏斗查找大量的，许多由于……的结，因为…由…组成城中心许多最大的灾难开发成为…，发展成……最后期限前抓住一切机会一本刚出版的书信不信由你处于危险中脱离危险开玩笑发生发现某人住在医院里对我来说很清楚…。。

"Tie-up son of a disaster, from a few days after the National Day holiday began."

"牛棚子的灾难，是从国庆大假后几天开始的。"

The little bear is called York , is is covered with mildew firmly having covered its eye, it being absorbed in being enjoying, but wonders if the disaster comes soon: The treadle-operated tilt hammer for hulling rice has been crumbled abruptly , the great bear has been smashed to death.

这时，它的母亲闻到了蜂窝的香味，用力地往石碓下刨……小熊名叫约克，长毛掩住了它的眼睛，它正专心享受着，却不知灾难即将降临：石碓突然坍塌，大熊被砸死了。

Its mother has smelt the beehive scent at this time, has put forth self's strength to dig up under past treadle-operated tilt hammer for hulling rice of field,... The little bear is called York , is is covered with mildew firmly having covered its eye, it being absorbed in being enjoying, but wonders if the disaster comes soon: The treadle-operated tilt hammer for hulling rice has been crumbled abruptly , the great bear has been smashed to death.

这时，它的母亲闻到了蜂窝的香味，用力地往石碓下刨……小熊名叫约克，长毛掩住了它的眼睛，它正专心享受着，却不知灾难即将降临：石碓突然坍塌，大熊被砸死了。

A windowpane overstated is broken on the wall, seem to prop up the big space, in fact poorer, winter freeze so that two feet tremble , it is so hot as to have a fever all over in summer.

一张夸张的玻璃窗灾难般砸在墙上，似乎撑大了空间，其实更糟，冬天冻得两脚哆嗦，夏天热得浑身发烧。

I don't know I've ever been anything other than the underdog.

我不知道我还经历过什么比这更大的灾难了。

Here, then, lies the great art: to make a little render to success the sound of a catastrophe in order that those who profit by it may tremble from it also, to season with fear every step that is taken, to augment the curve of the transition to the point of retarding progress, to dull that aurora, to denounce and retrench the harshness of enthusiasm, to cut all angles and nails, to wad triumph, to muffle up right, to envelop the giant-people in flannel, and to put it to bed very speedily, to impose a diet on that excess of health, to put Hercules on the treatment of a convalescent, to dilute the event with the expedient, to offer to spirits thirsting for the ideal that nectar thinned out with a potion, to take one's precautions against too much success, to garnish the revolution with a shade.

因而出现了这样的伟大艺术：使胜利多少响起一点灾难的声音，以使利用胜利的人同时也为胜利发抖，每前进一步便散布一点恐怖气氛，拉长过渡工作中的弯路以使进步迟缓下来，冲淡初现的曙光，指控和遏制热情的谋划，削平尖角和利爪，用棉花捂住欢呼胜利的嘴，给人权穿上龙钟肥厚的衣服，把魁伟高大的人民裹在法兰绒里，叫他们赶快去睡觉，强迫过分健康的人忌口，教铁汉子接受初愈病人的饮食，挖空心思去做分化瓦解的工作，请那些害远大理想病的人喝些掺了甘草水的蜜酒，采取种种措施来防止过大的成功，替革命加上一个遮光罩。

It was not wet yet cold and dark and flooded a road This road is digesting the old one You can hear the sound of gravel, cement and water wagon tracks which the wind wasn't quick enough to smooth away a corpse frozen by snow, and a car leaving with happy songs The most faithful year, or two years its biggest sore is that it's not been hurt The molds on the road are home for magpies In the distance, the sea overflows by itself like people who live outside life vaguely derailing Time will make them very poor and prove that great pique can be disaster to them, though that's not happened yet I've walked along this road, it was once occupied by grass and dirty snow Where there's now a lamp post, I used to loiter.

它不是湿的却是冷而黑的将一条道路淹没这条道路，正在消化着原来的道路你会听到一些沙石的声音，一些水泥和水风来不及吹走的车辙一块积雪冻僵的尸体，还有一辆汽车满载快乐而去的歌声最忠诚的一年，或两年它最大的伤害是没有受到伤害道路上的霉斑，是喜鹊的家园远处的海水空自泛滥那只是生活以外之人一次不着边际的出轨时间会让它们一贫如洗并证明巨大的怨气于他们是灾难，但没有发出来我走过的这条道路，曾被青草或肮脏的雪们占领落脚之地如今站立着灯柱。

On the other hand, the more important thing is because the urban housing is a kind of heterogeneity products.

另一方面，更重要的是由于城市住房是一种异质性产品。

Climate histogram is the fall that collects place measure calm value, cent serves as cross axle for a few equal interval, the area that the frequency that the value appears according to place is accumulated and becomes will be determined inside each interval, discharge the graph that rise with post, also be called histogram.

气候直方图是将所收集的降水量测定值，分为几个相等的区间作为横轴，并将各区间内所测定值依所出现的次数累积而成的面积，用柱子排起来的图形，也叫做柱状图。