外汇平价

Under the assumption that the expected rate μS(t , volatilityσS(t are functions of risk asset S, and stock pricing process respectively driven by a general O-U process and an exponential of a Levy process, we obtain the accurate pricing formulas and put-call parity of European option. In the end, assume that riskless rate is given, we deal with pricing formulas of European option on foreign currency and apply the approach to the pricing of the convertible bond.

利用保险精算方法给出了股票价格遵循广义0一U过程模型的欧式期权的精确定价公式和买权与卖权之间的平价关系以及股票价格过程遵循指数Levy过程的定价模型，最后推导出利率确定情形下外汇期权的定价公式，并且给出了保险精算方法在可转换债券定价中的应用。

According to Meese's exchange rate model in 1986, in this paper, we modified Meese's (1986) model and suppose the Interest Rate Parity is untenable, the risk premium factor and real exchange rate parameter are considered, and the Purchasing Power parity doesn't follow random walk, we derive our modified equilibrium model. Base on the State Space Model, we try to estimate bubbles and risk premium which are unobservable variables by Kalman Filter to test which one is or both are the main factors that to cause the real assets price biased from the market fundamental price.

本文是以Meese(1986)所决定的汇率模型为基础，但Messe一文并未讨论到风险溢酬的问题，故本文为了克服此一缺憾，而假设未抛捕的利率平价说(uncovered interest parity，UIP)不成立，以加入风险溢酬因子，且更进一步假设偏离购买力平价理论(purchasing power parity，PPP)不服从随机漫步，若如此则顺利将实质汇率变数纳入於模型中，重新建立均衡汇率模型，为了验证本文所创立的模型，实证方法以状态空间模型为基础，运用卡门滤波器递回法来估计不可观察的变数，以观察台湾的外汇市场上是因泡沫现象还是风险溢酬造成资产价格偏离市场基要价值或是两者皆是造成实际资产价格偏离市场机要价格的因素。

The split between the two groups can hardly be papered over.

这两个团体间的分歧难以掩饰。

This approach not only encourages a greater number of responses, but minimizes the likelihood of stale groupthink.

这种做法不仅鼓励了更多的反应，而且减少跟风的可能性。