复合概率

Thirdly,in virtue of Markov theory,we get the herd coefficient matrix from Markov change probability matrix and construct the CA-Markov composite Model and get some characteristics of the CA-Markov composite Model Finally,we do simulations and sort for Xinjian County by using the Markov Model and the CA-Markov composite Model, respectively and analyze and compare the simulation results abortively.

然后，借鉴马尔科夫理论，采用转移概率矩阵估计从众系数矩阵，构建出CA-Markov复合模型，并研究了相关的性质。

In presented method, the correlated variables are transformed into uncorrelated variables equivalently, and the performance functions in the correlated variables space are transformed into those in the equivalent uncorrelated variables space, in which the reliability sensitivity of the system failure probability with respect to the distribution parameters of the uncorrelated variables can be solved by the moment method for the uncorrelated variables. Finally the equivalent relationship between the correlated variables and the uncorrelated variables, the chain rule for derivative are employed to obtain the reliability sensitivity of the system failure probability with respect to the means of the correlated variables.

在所提的方法中，首先将相关变量空间等效转化为不相关变量空间，并将系统多个失效模式的功能函数转化为不相关变量空间的功能函数，进而利用矩方法得到多模式系统失效概率对不相关变量空间基本分布参数的灵敏度，最后利用相关变量空间与不相关变量空间的等价关系及复合函数求导法则，求得多模式系统失效概率对相关变量空间中变量均值的灵敏度。

Established reliability solution calculation model of composite foundation improved by Dry Jet Mixing, looked for main failure mode of system, and analyzied correlation among every failure mode, calculated correlation coefficient among every failure mode, applied narrow bound method to calculate general failure probability of composite foundation improved by Dry Jet Mixing.

2建立粉喷桩复合地基系统可靠度求解的计算模型，找出系统的主要失效模式，并分析各个失效模式之间的相关性，求解各个失效模式之间的相关系数，并运用窄界限范围法求解粉喷桩复合地基系统的总失效概率。

For this type of new model,we study it mainly from these ways:First,we make further research on the nature features of their distributions;give out the probability distribution of the mixed stochastic variables,and the statistical features and the approximate distributions of the short-term individual risk models. Also the relationships between the total amount of compound compensation and individual one were investigated.At last we give out a kind of practical calculation method for the individual risk model.That is the calculation of the number of claims translating into the calculation of Vandermonde determinant.Second,a kind of risk model with main claims and by-claims is built under specific conditions.

对于这类有主副理赔的风险模型，我们主要从以下几个方面进行研究：首先，对短期个别风险模型和长期聚合风险模型的理赔总额的分布性质及特征做了较深入的研究，给出了混合型随机变量和的概率分布和短期个别风险模型理赔总额的统计特征与近似分布；在复合分布的框架下，研究了聚合风险模型理赔总额和个别理赔额之间的分布关系，给出了和个别理赔额对应的理赔次数的实用计算方法，即在总索赔额服从复合泊松分布时，把不同理赔额对应的理赔次数的计算转化为线性方程组的计算。

Consequently the stochastic simulation method of compound extreme value distribution is brought forward.

根据复合极值分布的特点，针对复杂失效域下多维联合概率难以解析求解的困难，本文提出了多维复合极值分布的随机模拟方法，并验证了该方法的准确性，扩大了多维复合极值分布的应用范围。

Consequently the stochastic simulation method of compound extreme value distribution is brought forward. The present study shows that the simulation method is reliable and can give accurate solution. As an example, Poisson-Nested Logistic model is applied to the design of sea wall.

根据复合极值分布的特点，针对复杂失效域下多维联合概率难以解析求解的困难，本文提出了多维复合极值分布的随机模拟方法，并验证了该方法的准确性，扩大了多维复合极值分布的应用范围。

Combining the principle of generalized Paretodistribution fitting the tail of a distribution with compound extreme value distribution theory, this paper puts forward Poisson-GP compound threshold distribution model, and gives the results estimated by MLE, CMM and PWM respectively.

论文结合广义Pareto分布拟合底分布尾部的原理与复合极值分布理论，构建Pois(来源：A0e1e1eBC论文网www.abclunwen.com)son-GP复合超阈值分布，并给出了极大似然法、复合矩法和概率权矩法的估计结果。

In the paper,the probability analysis method of the bearing capacity of cement deep mixing composite foundation is investigated,which will push the developing of the reliability design method of composite foundation.

文 摘 研究了水泥系深层搅拌桩复合地基承载力概率分析的方法，这对复合地基的可靠性设计将起着积极的推进作用。

Lastly, the paper also studies on a generalized discrete insurance risk model of two-type claims, the problems are resolved, such as the survival probability、ruin probability when the initial capital is zero and the ultimate ruin probability.

最后，对广义复合双险种负二项风险模型进行研究，得到了盈余过程的性质、初始准备金为零时的生存概率及破产概率的表达式。

According to a thorough comparison and analysis of several classical criticality indexes including Path Criticality Probability, Activity Criticality Probability, Activity 'Cruciality' Index, all these indexes have limitations and pitfalls to some degree. Therefore, Activity Compound Criticality Index is presented as a compound index of ACP and ACI, and on the basis of ACCI, Project Compound Criticality Index, a new index that reflects the criticality of a whole project or subproject is proposed.

首先，对几个经典关键性指标——线路关键概率(Path Criticality Probability， PCP)、工序关键概率(Activity Criticality Probability， ACP)和工序关键指标(Activity Cruciality Index， ACI)——进行比较研究；鉴于各自利弊，提出一个 ACP 与 ACI 的整合指标——工序复合关键指标(Activity Compound Criticality Index，ACCI)，并进一步提出了一个表征项目整体&关键&水平的新指标项目——复合关键指标(Project Compound Criticality Index， PCCI)。

The split between the two groups can hardly be papered over.

这两个团体间的分歧难以掩饰。

This approach not only encourages a greater number of responses, but minimizes the likelihood of stale groupthink.

这种做法不仅鼓励了更多的反应，而且减少跟风的可能性。