均衡的

In this thesis thecurrent situation and future of the aged has been analyzed mainly, seven characters werediscussed as followed: trend of aging phenomenon, high growing speed of this phenomenon,big absolute unit of population, un-equilibrium distribution in the whole country, low healthylevel, exceeding economic development. The influence on economy, society, family,psychology and so on had been discussed also. It pointed out the importance of stabilizing thebirth level, performing new trinity mode of providing for the aged by themselves, by thesociety and by their children, taking actions to delay the aging speed correspondingly andfulfilling elementary service for their health.

本文分析了我国人口老龄化的现状及发展趋势，讨论了我国人口老龄化速度快，绝对数大，分布不均衡，健康水平低，超越经济发展等七个特点，论述人口老龄化对我国经济、社会、家庭，心理等影响，提出要稳定生育水平，实行自身、社会、子女养老三位一体新模式，采取相对延缓老龄速度，实施老年初级健康服务等应对策略和对策。

How should organizations achieve balance between exploration and exploitation-via ambidexterity or punctuated equilibrium?

组织应该如何通过同时加强这两者还是间断均衡来平衡这两者之间的关系？

Therefore, a certain balance must be sought in the implement of antitrust law.

因此，在反垄断法的实施过程中，必须在二者之间寻求某种均衡。

Based on the important results obtained from the present research on second degree price discrimination, this dissertation makes a systemic and more practical mathematics study on the side of the manufacturer angels, including further and more deeply research on monopoly manufacturer how to actualize second price discrimination under nonlinear demand function, Nash equilibrium of second degree price discrimination under the condition of competition with different demand functions, monopoly manufacturer how to actualize second

结果表明，其纳什均衡结果存在依赖于两厂商产品的市场占有率，并且两厂商需求区间的分段数越多，其纳什均衡存在的必要条件要求他们的实力越接近；第四章针对实际情况将确定性需求条件下厂商处于完全垄断状态下的二度价格歧视理论研究推广到不确定性需求条件下的二度价格歧视理论研究，更进一步地研究了垄断厂商在线性随机需求条件下的二度价格歧视模型，用计算机模拟了此模型的可行性，分析模拟结果得出了一系列重要结论，最后给出了更具一般性的不确定需求条件下的二度价格歧视模型，并严格证明了此模型的可行性；第五章对全文进行总结。

The great tour purchasing power is the drive power of promoting the region's tourism developmentln the regional space, scale economic and regional separation are one of the basic characteristics of promoting tourism industry, So we must arrange the regional tourism industry with a systematic method and give prominence to the central city. For its outstanding area in the regional space, central city has evident superiority in the regional ecnomic development, and has echelon between central city and its periphery scennic spots, which is the inducement mechanism of tourism industry's arranging, developing and advancing step by step. For the law of diminishing marginal utility and the theory of equilibrium, the max utility equilibrium of tourism consumption be at the point of tangency of undiscrepancy curve and the cost budget curve.

中心城市居民巨大的出游力是拉动其周边旅游地发展重要的内在驱动力；由于地缘关系，区域规模经济与地域分割并存，是旅游产业运动的一个基本特征，为此必须对区域旅游经济进行系统化布局，突出中心城市的产业中心性；因其区位条件独特，中心城市在区域经济发展中居于明显的优势，与周边城乡部位存在经济发展上的梯次性，这种梯次性是区域旅游生产力布局、产业发展梯次传动，最终整体联动的经济诱导机制；根据边际效用递减规律和旅游者最大效用均衡理论，旅游消费效用最大化的均衡在无差异曲线与开支预算线的切点(即旅游目的地选择的最佳位置)上，且随着边际效用递减，目的地选择的最佳位置向远离中心城市方向移动，这就是中心城市与周边旅游地互动关系的经济学解释。

In the part of empirical analysis of Chinese IPO first-day return, the difference between existing study and this study is that we use principal components analysis to extract from five factors to construct investors'sentiment index, add it to controled varibles, on which we examine the influence of offering mechanism on IPO first-day return. Moreover, we gather statistics and compare the IPO holding return for lockup period between fixed-price-class offering method and bookbuilding-class offering method, as well as price range between Chinese A-share market and Hongkong stock market, which prvide comprehensive evidence to appraise Chinese IPO bookbuilding mechanism. 2. Compare to the existing literatures which consider discount or allocation, incentive allocation and discount are considered at the same time in optimal mechanism design in this dissertation, and the offering bottom price is introduced to the price range. We investigate the relationship between price range and allocation quantity, and obtain the optimal price range and allocation strategy so that the advantages of independent allocation are reflected. On the other hand, the disadvantages of independent allocation are reflected in the manipulation in case of no restriction on IPO allocation. To distinguish from the existing literatures, bookbuilding mechanism is introduced to the model. We study the allocation strategy adopted by the underwriter in the pooling equilibrium of manipulation. In addition, we analyze the incentive compatibility conditions to which the existence of pooling equilibrium should satisfy and examine some factors'impact on the existence of manipulation.3. In bookbuilding without independent IPO allocation, Chinese realistic IPO background is considered and the condition of bookbuilding and fixed-price hybrid offering is added. Divide bookbuilding and fixed-price hybrid offering into sequential hybrid and simultaneous hybrid, and point out that the key points of subscription strategy in the two kinds of hybrid are different. Through modeling and simulation we obtain the impact of institutional investors'subscription strategy on bookbuilding without independent IPO allocation, which fill the gap in related research. Moreover, in the part of IPO bookbuilding with over-allotment option, the pricing strategy is divided into hot-IPO strategy and weak-IPO strategy. Take into account the procedure of Chinese IPO with over-allotment option, it presents how the underwriter determines the pricing strategy and what effect it brings to offering price and issue size through modeling and simulation. Therefore, it is instructive as a complement to existing literatures.

此外，对我国A股市场询价发行方式与固定价格发行方式下的IPO锁定期到期时持有收益率、以及我国A股市场与香港市场的询价发行价格区间进行了统计比较，为评价我国IPO市场的询价发行提供了比较全面的依据。2、相比已有文献仅考虑折价和分配中的一种激励措施，本论文在有自主配售权下的机制设计中并用了分配与折价两种激励措施，并且在价格区间的制定中引入发行底价，考察了价格区间与分配量之间的关系，得到最优的价格区间和分配策略，从中体现自主分配权的优点；在有自主分配权下的操纵行为研究中则体现了自主配售权的弊端，与已有文献不同的是，在模型中引入了累计投标询价机制，研究了承销商在混同均衡操纵中采取的分配策略，并对操纵存在的条件进行分析讨论，得出各个因素对混同均衡操纵存在的影响。3、在无自主分配权下的询价发行中，充分考虑了我国实际应用的背景，加入了与固定价格发售混合的条件，并将询价与固定价格混合发行分为序贯与同步两种方式，指出机构投资者在两种情况下申购策略的侧重点各有不同，通过对序贯混合发行方式下的网下累计投标策略以及同步混合发行方式下的资金分配策略的模型建立和数值仿真，考察了机构投资者申购策略对无自主分配权下的询价发行的影响，填补了相关研究文献的空白；在包含超额配售选择权的询价发行中，将发行定价策略分为热销策略和弱销策略，在考虑了我国含超额配售选择权的发行流程下，通过建模以及数值仿真得出承销商会对发行定价策略作出怎样的选取，进而会对新股发行价格、发售数量产生怎样的影响，对目前相关研究的缺乏做出了有益的补充。

To the question of non-Nash equilibrium in prisoners' dilemma, this paper makes an analysis to Game Theory's hypothesis: complete rationality, complete information and probability, and gets a result: systems thinking style in complete rationality, the happen of the event of zero probability, and the uncertainty that is brought out when complete information is concordant beliefs, all can bring the appearance of non-Nash equilibrium, and the probability of appearance is decided by the proportion of men who think in systems thinking style.

本文就"囚徒困境"中非纳什均衡出现的问题，对博弈的前提假设完全理性、完全信息以及概率进行了分析，得出的结论是：完全理性中的整体思维方式和概率为零的事件的发生以及完全信息等于一致信念时引起的不确定性，都可能导致非纳什均衡出现，而其出现的可能性则取决于采取整体思维方式的人的比例。

To the question of non-Nash equilibrium in prisoners' dilemma, this paper makes an analysis to Game Theory's hypothesis: complete rationality, complete information and probability, and gets a result: systems thinking style in complete rationality, the happen of the event of zero probability, and the uncertainty that is brought out complete information is concordant beliefs, all can bring the appearance of non-Nash equilibrium, and the probability of appearance is decided by the proportion of men who think in systems thinking style.

本文就"囚徒困境"中非纳什均衡出现的，对博弈的前提假设完全理性、完全信息以及概率进行了，得出的结论是：完全理性中的整体思维方式和概率为零的事件的发生以及完全信息等于一致信念时引起的不确定性，都可能导致非纳什均衡出现，而其出现的可能性则取决于采取整体思维方式的人的比例。

To deal with various risks in the production of space,local governments have to cease the monopolization in land requisition and expropriation,and establish the balance of interests between correlative groups and national institutions in the circulation of lands.To deal with risks in the games of new society,local governments must adjust the systems and policies concerned,and avoid just scratching the surface of a problem.To deal with risks in reallocation of social resources and social administration concerned with policy output,many local governments already have material condition to effectively break them,and the key is to improve their administerial skills in policy making and implementation.To deal with risks in vicious competition between city governments in urbanization,which are actually the manifest of malfunction of market mechanism,local governments must put the centralization mechanism into full play,and strengthen the social check and balance mechanism,in order to effectively regulate market mechanism and realize the organic interactions between social units,democracy,and market.

要破解地方政府在空间生产中风险重重的局面，必须改变政府在土地征用征收上的独裁专断格局，完善土地流转中各个相关利益群体间的权利均衡以及国家机构间的权力均衡机制；地方政府在新型社会博弈中的风险，也需要相关制度与政策的调整，不能停留在治标不治本的层次；在社会资源再分配与社会管制等政策输出方面的风险，许多地方政府已经具备了有效化解的物质条件，主观上提高政策制定与执行的行政技能是解决此类问题的关键；我国城市政府在发展地方经济推进地方城镇化中的恶性竞争风险，本质上是市场机制失灵的一种表现，必须通过充分运用集权机制、强化社会制约机制从而有效规制市场机制，实现科层、民主、市场三种机制的良性对接，政府、社会、企业三种力量的有机互动，才能解决。

Based on the study of scholars at home and abroad and from the point of theoretical and empirical study, this paper analyses the impact of foreign trade and FDI over China's business cycle using many econometric methods such as Unit Root Test, Co-integration Tests, Granger Test, Pulse-response Function and variance decomposition based on VAR model and draws the conclusion as follows:Firstly,there is a close relationship among foreign trade, FDI and business cycle. Foreign trade and FDI are the important transmission channel of the economic cycle. Secondly, the impact to economic fluctuation from foreign trade is greater than that of FDI. Thirdly, In the long time, there is fine interactive circulation among foreign trade, FDI and economic growth. When the short-term deviation from equilibrium happens, there is a self-balanced mechanism in the system.Fourthly,the active effect outweighs the negative effect which the foreign trade and FDI brings.

本文在国内外学者研究成果的基础上，从理论和实证两个方面，运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析及方差分解等计量经济学的方法，从比较的角度分析了对外贸易及FDI对我国经济周期波动的影响，得出结论如下：首先，对外贸易、FDI与我国经济的波动有着显著的关系，二者是传递经济周期的重要渠道；其次，对外贸易对我国经济波动的影响要大于FDI的作用；第三，长期看我国FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间形成良好的互动循环，当系统短期内偏离均衡状态时，系统存在一个自我均衡机制；第四，对外贸易及FDI对我国经济周期波动产生的积极效应要远大于它所带来的负面效应。

She gently rebuff ed him, but agreed that they could be friends

她婉言拒绝了，但同意作为朋友相处。

If in the penal farm, you were sure to be criticized.

要是在劳改农场，你等着挨绳子吧！