后验的

Finishing calculation of mean value, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis of Beta distribution.(2) Fitting parameters of many kinds of typical distribution and using residual deviation to evaluate fitting precision.(3) Using Beta distribution as an agreed indication distribution applied to many kinds of practical photoelectric measurement distributions.(4) Deriving theory formula of Bayes point estimation about Beta distribution parameters and mean value and standard deviation on the condition of mean square error loss function and supposed the prior distribution is uniform distribution.(5) Generating MCMC sample from post distribution by the method of Gibbs sample algorithm. Calculating bayes point estimation from sample on the condition of mean square error loss function. Calculating confidence interval by an approximate method to complete interval estimation.

本文的主要工作有：(1)解决了Beta分布参数a和b的精确计算以及均值、标准差、偏度、峰度的计算问题；(2)拟合出10余种典型分布的Beta分布的两个参数，并且采用剩余标准差评价该Beta分布的拟合精度；(3)对多种典型的光学与光电测量系统的测量分布进行了Beta分布统示表示；(4)在假设先验分布为均匀分布前提下，得到参数a和b以及均值μ和标准差σ在均方误差损失函数下的贝叶斯点估计理论计算公式；(5)利用直接抽样的Gibbs抽样算法，从后验分布中产生MCMC样本，从样本直接计算均方误差损失函数下的贝叶斯点估计，并使用一种近似方法计算其置信区间，完成区间估计。

The situation after the first M step is shown in plot, in which the mean of the blue Gaussian has moved to the mean of the data set, weighted by the probabilities of each data point belonging to the blue cluster, in other words it has moved to the centre of mass of the blue ink. Similarly, the covariance of the blue Gaussian is set equal to the covariance of the blue ink.

图显示了初始的 E 步骤，用红色表示用红色 component 产生的后验概率，蓝色也是同样的情况，还有一些不太确定的点是用紫色显示的，在图中蓝色的高斯的均值已经移到了蓝色数据集的中心上，类似的，蓝色高斯的协方差设为蓝色点的协方差。

Provided that the initial prior intensity of the states is Gaussian or can be identified as a Gaus- sian sum, the analytical results of the algorithm show that the posterior intensity at any subsequent time step remains a Gaussian sum under the assumption that the state noise, the measurement noise, target spawn intensity, new target birth intensity, target survival prob- ability, and detection probability are all Gaussian sums.

分析的结果表明，当初始的先验强度满足高斯或者可以表示成高斯和的形式时，通过将状态噪声、观测噪声、目标的繁衍、新目标的产生、目标的存活概率和检测概率表示成高斯和的形式，之后每个时刻的后验强度均能表示成高斯和形式。

First,we proposes the acceleration of Monte Carlo EM Algorithm,which is based on Monte Carlo EM Algorithm and Newton-Raphson algorithm,to improve the convergence rate;Second,the it is shown that the accelerated EM algorithm we proposed has quadratic convergence rate in a neighborhood of the posterior mode;Finally,its excellent performance in convergence rate is illustrated by a classical example.

受Monte Carlo EM算法与EM加速算法启发，本文构造了一种新的EM算法，称为Monte Carlo EM加速算法；证明了该算法在似然函数/后验分布的众数的附近确实具有二次收敛速度，改进了Monte Carlo EM算法的收敛速度；并通过一个数值例子的计算结果说明了该算法的优良性，它兼具实现简单及收敛速度快的特点。

The noninformative prior of the standard deviation of error terms was introduced for Bayesian analysis. Then, given the prior density of the random coefficients in the degradation path model, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was adopted to generate samples of joint posterior distribution of random coefficients and unknown standard deviation.

为了处理未知的误差项方差，引入相应的标准差的无信息先验分布，并进一步结合退化轨道模型中随性参数的先验分布，利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法得到随机参数及误差项标准差的联合后验分布的采样值，进而实时预测产品在未来一段时间内的可靠度。

This difference, it should be observed, applies only to the question of proving God's actual existence; for, His self-existence being admitted, it is necessary to employ a priori or deductive inference in order to arrive at a knowledge of His nature and attributes, and as it is impossible to develop the arguments for His existence without some working notion of His nature, it is necessary to some extent to anticipate the deductive stage and combine the a priori with the a posteriori method.

这种差异，应该得到遵守，只适用於该问题的证明上帝的实际存在，他的自我存在，被承认，有必要聘请一名或先验演绎推理，以得出一个认识他的本质和属性，因为这是不可能发展的论点，他的存在，如果没有某种工作的概念，其本质，是要在一定程度上预测演绎阶段结合起来，把先验与后验方法。

Abstract］This paper studies the animation industry by exploring European animation festivals panoramically from the perspective of aesthetic economy and space economy. It is found that semiotic products with great semiotic meaning are not a kind of transcendental presentation but daily reality in the aesthetic economy and space economy era. The animation industry, which is focused on cultural and creative content producing, is a rising industry in which the animation festival is not only the exhibition of traditional commodities but also a creative arena of meaning produce. The restructuring of place for European animation festivals is followed the basic requirement of aesthetic economy and space economy, since the festivals add new semiotic meaning and cultural elements to the original places.

从审美经济、空间经济的视角，以动漫节为研究对象，对欧洲动漫产业发展所形成的文化与市场景观进行一种全景式的考察后，可以发现：在审美经济的时代，以符号意义为主的符号产品不再是超验的表象，而是日常生活的实在；以文化创意内容为核心的动漫产业已经成为新兴产业；其中，作为符号生产与传统商品集中展示的动漫节，更侧重于深入开发动漫及其衍生产品的审美价值，使动漫节不仅仅流于纯粹的小商品集市，而在于创造更多的符号意义，丰富动漫节的多种内涵；动漫节举办地的地点重构适应了空间经济发展的内在要求，动漫赋予不少城镇以全新的符号内涵，创造了各种形态的地点神话，从而促进空间经济的城市发展。

In view of the peaked and fat-tailed characteristics of financial return data distribution and its effect of clustering fluctuation and especially the "leverage effect" of fluctuation on VaR estimates and some efficiencies when estimating VaR with various assumptions of return data distribution,a semi-parameter approach based on EGARCH-VaR model is developed.

在综合考虑了金融收益数据分布的尖峰厚尾特征及其波动集群性，尤其是其波动的&杠杆效应&对VaR估计的影响以及各种假定收益率分布在计算风险价值时存在不足的基础上，提出了基于EGARCH-VaR的半参数方法，并且与正态分布和t分布假设下的GARCH模型的VaR计量方法进行比较，通过实证分析，并利用后验测试，表明基于EGARCH-VaR的半参数方法对风险价值的测度优于正态分布和t分布假设下GARCH模型的VaR计量方法。

"Ontology" in the Chinese etymology means "the highest","the most fundamental","the most popular" and "the most important". Although it is a loan word, it has great difference from the oringinal meaning of ontology when translated into Chiness and has abvously "transferred meaning". If the "original meaning" of ontology is a "transcendental" purely logic stipulation" and a unique morphology of "the Western Philosophy", a field of idea world, absolute spirit, pure reason which is isolated from the experience world or prio to the experience world", and "a pure principle unable to be proven from the real world", then in Chiness,"ontology" has richer transferred meanings unparalleled with ontology in the West.

&本体&在中文词源里，有&最高&、&最根本&、&最普遍&、&最重要&等含义；本体论虽然是外来词，但翻译为中文后，与原来的ontology已经有了很大的区别，产生了明显的&转义&：如果说ontology的&本义&是一种&是论&或&存在论&，是一种超验的&纯粹的逻辑规定性&，是&西方哲学特有的一种形态&，是&与经验世界隔绝或者先于经验世界的理念世界、绝对精神、纯粹理性的领域&，是&不能从现实世界得到验证的纯粹的原理&，是比一切其他哲学思维都更纯正的&第一哲学&的话，那么在中国的&水土&上，&本体论&已经具有了比西方的ontology丰富得无可比拟的&转义&。

The influences of modeling theory, source of parameters and a posteriori simulation on validity of models are researched and an evaluation method of model validity based on the three factors is proposed, and the significance of performing dynamic evaluation of model validity is analyzed.

分析了模型的建模理论、参数的来源及后验仿真对模型有效性的影响，提出了基于这3方面因素的模型有效性评估方法，并分析了对模型有效性进行动态评估的重要性。

But we don't care about Battlegrounds.

但我们并不在乎沙场中的显露。

Ah! don't mention it, the butcher's shop is a horror.

啊！不用提了。提到肉，真是糟透了。