后验概率

Using the Bayes's theory about a estimate,the article researches the problem of probability change points,then gives a concrete priori distribution and posterior distribution,as well as gives a judge to the existence of probability change points.

利用Bayes估计理论，研究概率变点问题，给出变点的一个具体先验分布和后验分布，并对变点的存在性作出判断。

First, the concept emergence probability is assumed to be a random variable with a priori Beta distribution. Second, its priori parameters are designated by the distance-based similarity algorithm, calculated by Bayesian Estimation.

该算法首先假定概念出现概率是符合Beta分布的随机变量，然后基于语义距离的相似度算法计算先验参数，并根据统计样本计算该先验分布下基于最小风险的贝叶斯估计后验参数。

The theorem of convergence of opinions is regarded as the dynamic principle of rationality concerning the subjective probability, and therefore is used to resolve Hume's problem, i.

意见收敛定理是主观主义概率论的一条重要定理，它表明随着证据的增加，验前概率的主观性将被验后概率的客观性所代替。

Two different global localization methods based on Bayesian estimation theory are mainly investigated in the paper.

文中侧重研究了两种以贝叶斯概率后验估计理论为基础的全局定位方法。

Provided that the initial prior intensity of the states is Gaussian or can be identified as a Gaus- sian sum, the analytical results of the algorithm show that the posterior intensity at any subsequent time step remains a Gaussian sum under the assumption that the state noise, the measurement noise, target spawn intensity, new target birth intensity, target survival prob- ability, and detection probability are all Gaussian sums.

分析的结果表明，当初始的先验强度满足高斯或者可以表示成高斯和的形式时，通过将状态噪声、观测噪声、目标的繁衍、新目标的产生、目标的存活概率和检测概率表示成高斯和的形式，之后每个时刻的后验强度均能表示成高斯和形式。

At the second stage of Bayesian theory, in which prior information and likelihood function should be combined to get posterior distribution, we propose a method of probabilistic analysis using weighting matrix.

为了得到加入先验信息的后验分布，本文提出了使用加权矩阵的概率分析法，该方法在模型空间直接引入地质信息，对噪声引起的反演多解性有很强的约束效果。

A new model based on the hierarchical MRFhalf tree model is proposed for only one image can be obtained in image segmentation, whose MPM (maximizer of the posterior marginals) algorithm is inferred too.

针对图像分割问题中观测数据有限的情况，提出了一种新的基于离散分层MRF的半树模型，推导出了它的最大后验边缘概率算法。

In this paper, a new region-determined half tree hierarchical MRF model is proposed and its region-determined maximizer of the posteriori marginals algorithm is inferred.

本文提出一种新的基于区域确定的半树分层 MRF 算法，并推导出它的最大后验边缘概率(Maximizer of the posteriori marginal， MPM)算法。

MCMC can be used to explore the posterior probability produced by the Bayesian learning method.

当使用Bayes方法学习Bayes网络模型的结构和参数时，使用MCMC方法对后验分布进行抽样研究是非常方便的，它不需要此概率分布是归一化的，而计算归一化常数往往是困难的。

Topics covered include subjective notion of probability, Bayes' Theorem, prior and posterior distributions, and data analysis techniques for statistical models.

包括：概率的主观定义，贝叶斯理论，先验和后验分布，统计模型的数据分析技术。

The split between the two groups can hardly be papered over.

这两个团体间的分歧难以掩饰。

This approach not only encourages a greater number of responses, but minimizes the likelihood of stale groupthink.

这种做法不仅鼓励了更多的反应，而且减少跟风的可能性。