可预测的

A method of the arithmetic information forecasting, in terms of the concept of the commensurability of hydrologic disasters and their grey period extension, is proposed as a possible approach of longterm hydrologic forecasting.

基于可公度信息预测理论，初步探讨了水旱灾害事件概周期外推的数列预测方法。

CEA, CA242 and CA19-9 were examined conjunctively, which positive findings were 85. 0% and its sensitivity、specificity、 positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 85.0%、 80.0%、 89.5% and 72.2%respectively.

CEA，CA242和CA19-9组合检测，阳性率可达85.0%，其诊断的灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值分别为85.0%、80.0%、89.5%、72.2%。

In this method, past survey data are weighted and the weights used are in geometric series such that

人力预测法职业训练局工业训练科所制订的「调节过滤」预测法，可用以

The subject is based on the study forward position of water resources management of LIAONING province, and use the developed tendency and succeeded experience of world water resources for reference, take theory of sustainable development as guiding ideologue, adopt systematic project, protection of ecosystem and environment and theory of economy forecast engage in composite analyze, dynamicevaluate and forecast analyze, forecast developed tendency of water resources supplement and demand of LIAONING province, put forward water resources rational disposition, economize on water, the prevention and control of water pollution and strength water resources protection etc.

本课题立足于辽宁省水资源管理研究前沿，借鉴了国内外水资源发展趋势和成功经验，以可持续发展的理论为指导，运用系统工程、生态环境保护理论和经济预测理论进行综合分析、动态评价，进而预测辽宁省水资源供需发展态势，提出了辽宁省水资源合理配置、节约用水、水污染防治和增强水资源保护等措施，为辽宁省抗旱、节水和水资源优化配置提供决策依据。

In order to achieve load balance in task scheduling under the grid environment, in view of the resources' autonomy, isomerism and distribution under this circumstance, a model of resources real-time prediction was designed based on improved GM (1, 1) prediction method, which could get satisfied load balance with smaller expenditure.

为了达到网格环境下任务调度时的负载平衡，针对此环境下的资源的自治性、异构性和分布性等特性，利用改进的灰预测模型GM(1，1)预测方法，设计了资源实时预测模型，可在较小的开销下取得满意的负载平衡。

The plumpness ratio is the bestindicator of full rapeseed.(5) The equivalent diameter is used to estimate the weight of rapeseed, andestablish the special and common model. In the overall, the correlation coefficient ofpredicted and measured values was over 0.99. The accuracy is more than 95%.

5以等价直径估测油菜种子重量，分别建立各品种的专用模型和面向白菜型、甘蓝型油菜的通用模型，两类模型在整体预测方式下的预测值与实测值间的相关系数均在0.99以上，预测精度可达到95％以上。

Through correlative analysis and path analysis, it finds that (1) the family environment and the colleges and universities environment have direct and indirect influence on self-identity development of students; and (2) the family environment and the colleges and universities environment exert the major effect on self-identity development of students through identity style as mediational variable, so identity style becomes the explanatory base of self-identity status. That is, the predictive effect of diffuse/avoidant identity style for identity diffusion, normative identity style for identity foreclosure, and information identity style for identity achievement respectively is most significant; and (3) family environment that is helpful, supportive, warm, expressive, and promote autonomy and independence possibly makes students form identity achievement or identity moratorium, family environment that is excessively cohesive and warm but lacking independence possibly promote students to form identity foreclosure, and family environment that lacks of supportive and warm possibly make students form identity diffusion; and (4) colleges and universities environments that have better relationship system, clear developmental purpose, and promote to pay attention to societal concerns, critical and explorative qualities, and provide healthy, expressive, democratic, open atmosphere facilitate identity development, in turn form advanced identity. Colleges and universities environments that only emphasize the receival of colleges and universities aims, order and instilments, and scarcely encourage critique, exploration, individuation possibly make students form identity foreclosure. However, the ones that is remote relationship system, and lacking support, and students don't cognize the aim of colleges and universities possibly make students form identity diffusion.

通过相关分析、路径分析发现：(1)家庭环境和学校环境对大学生自我同一性有直接和间接的影响；(2)家庭环境、学校环境对大学生自我同一性影响主要以同一性加工方式为中介变量，同一性加工方式成为自我同一性状态的解释基础，弥散—回避定向同一性风格对弥散型同一性预测力最大，信息定向同一性风格对成就型和延缓型同一性预测力最大，常规定向同一性风格对排他型同一性预测力最大；(3)相互支持、帮助、关心、自由表达和鼓励自主和独立的家庭环境促进大学生同一性的发展，形成成就型或延缓型同一性状态，过度亲密而缺乏独立性特征的家庭环境可能形成排他型同一性状态，而缺乏支持性，关系疏远的家庭环境可能形成弥散同一性状态；(4)良好的关系系统，明确的发展目标，鼓励学生对社会事务关注、倡导批判和探索精神，塑造良好、健康、可供自由表达、民主、开放的文化氛围的大学校园环境促进大学生同一性发展，形成高级、成熟的自我同一性，而一味强调学校目标的接受，强调秩序、灌输，缺乏对批判、探索、个性发展鼓励的学校环境有可能使学生形成排他型同一性状态，但若学校的关系系统疏远，缺乏支持性的民主的风格，目标不能被学生明确感知的学校环境则可能影响学生形成弥散型同一性。

Triple exponential smoothing method and the combined of triple exponential smoothing method and Markov model both belong to time series method. Triple exponential smoothing method strongerly dependenced to short-term data. The combined method needed data which had more accurate; it must be the data of population quantity of many years continuously.

2三次指数平滑法、三次指数平滑法和马尔可夫链预测模型的组合预测方法都属于时间序列分析法，三次指数平滑法对近期数据的依赖性较强，组合预测法对数据的要求较高，必须是多年连续的种群数量变动数据。

Geophysical characteristics of Ordovician carbonate rock were studied using drilling data. Impedance is affected mostly by material properties and reservoirs types, to a negligibly extent by lithology and flow. Compact layers and minor\|fracture reservoirs of Ordovician carbonate rock have characteristics of high density, high velocity and high impedance, and the prediction of minor fractures reservoir is difficult by the general seismic ways. Big fractures and fractured\|vuggy and vuggy and cavity reservoirs of Ordovician carbonate rock have characteristics of minor density and low velocity and low impedance in central Tarim basin, which obviously different from the surrounding rock and produce obvious characteristics in seismic data, so reservoirs can be predicted by applying general seismic data.

根据已钻井资料，对塔中地区上奥陶统良里塔格组岩石地球物理特征进行了研究，结果表明：物性、储层类型对波阻抗影响最大，岩性、流体对波阻抗影响较小；奥陶系碳酸盐岩致密层和小裂缝型储层具有密度大、速度高、波阻抗值大的特点，利用地震常规预测手段较难预测出小裂缝型储层，而塔中地区奥陶系碳酸盐岩大裂缝型、裂缝-孔洞型、孔洞型、洞穴型储层具有密度小、速度低、波阻抗值小的特点，与围岩具有较为明显的差异，在地震上可以产生明显的响应，可利用常规地震资料来预测这种类型储层。

We also propose a simple motion re-estimation method for video transcoder, which has very low computation and qualifies for real-time transcoding.For increasing prediction accuracy, BMA is first demonstrated to be inaccurate for nontranslation motion.

为了减小运动估计的预测误差，本文从根本上解释了BMA不能表示非平移运动的缺陷，引入基于节点位移的可变形块运动模型，给出预测精度高、运算量低且易于实现的节点位移搜索算法，有效减小预测误差。

It has been put forward that there exists single Ball point and double Ball points on the symmetrical connecting-rod curves of equilateral mechanisms.

从鲍尔点的形成原理出发，分析对称连杆曲线上鲍尔点的产生条件，提出等边机构的对称连杆曲线上有单鲍尔点和双鲍尔点。

The factory affiliated to the Group primarily manufactures multiple-purpose pincers, baking kits, knives, scissors, kitchenware, gardening tools and beauty care kits as well as other hardware tools, the annual production value of which reaches US$ 30 million dollars.

集团所属工厂主要生产多用钳、烤具、刀具、剪刀、厨具、花园工具、美容套等五金产品，年生产总值3000万美元，产品价廉物美、选料上乘、质量保证，深受国内外客户的青睐