参数假设

Study is made of Bayes estimation of the error rate proportionality parameter θ in the JM model for testing software reliability,leading to the a priori,a posteriori distribution of θ and the coresponding Bayes estimates on the Bayes assumption,Jeffrey s principle and conjugate dis- tribution,together with their comparison and discussion.

讨论了软件可靠性模型——JM 模型中故障率比例参数θ的 Bayes 估计问题，分别求出了在贝叶斯假设、杰弗莱原则和共轭分布原则下参数θ的先验分布、后验分布及相应的 Bayes 估计，并对它们进行了比较和讨论。

This paper use five up and out warrants that have been issued in Taiwan, assuming the returns of their underlying assets follow the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic process. We can estimate their parameters by in-sample data, and simulate the price of underlying assets and also the theoretical price of the up and out warrants.

本文选取在台湾发行之五档上限型的认购权证假设其标的资产报酬率服从GARCH(1，1)模型，利用样本内的资料模拟GARCH(1，1)模型的参数，并利用估计出来的参数模拟标的资产样本外的价格以及上限型认购权证的理论价格。

Events,Operation and Relation of Sets, Classical Probability, Geometrical Probability , Statistical Stability of a Frequency, Axioms of Probability, Conditional Probability, Total Probability Theorem, Bayes' Rule,Independent Events,Independent Repeated Trials, One Dimensional Random Variables, Discrete Random Variables, Distribution Function of a Random Variables , Continuous Random Variables, Normal Distribution, Distribution of a Function of a Random Variable, Multidimensional Random Variables, Joint Distribution Function, Marginal Distribution Function,Discrete Two—Dimensional Random Variables,Continuous Two—Dimensional Random Variables, Independent Random Variables, Distribution of Functions of Random Variables,Expectation,Variance, Covariance, Coefficient of Correlation, Bivariate Normal Distribution, Law of Large Numbers, The Central Limit Theorems, Sample and Population ,Chi—Squared, T and F Distributions , Sampling Distributions , Point Estimation , Interval Estimation , Testing Hypotheses , A Test of Significance for Parameters in a Single Sample From a Normally Distributed Population , A Test of Significance for Parameters in Two Sample From Normally Distributed Populations .

本课程的主要内容：概率的概念与运算、随机变量及其分布、随机变量的数字特征与极限定理、数理统计的基本概念、估计和检验的基本方法，随机事件与概率随机事件、事件的关系与运算、几何概率、统计概率等，条件概率、全概率公式、贝叶斯公式、事件的独立性、二项概率公式，随机变量的概念、离散型随机变量、随机变量的分布函数、连续型随机变量、随机变量函数的分布，多维随机变量及其分布函数、边缘分布函数、随机变量的独立性、二维随机变量函数的分布，数学期望、方差、协方差和相关系数、大数定律、中心极限定理，总体与样本， X 2-分布、 t-分布和 F-分布，统计量及抽样分布，假设检验的基本概念、单个正态总体参数的显著性检验、两个正态总体参数的显著性检验。

Taking account of the characteristics of pure shear and plane strain, after the measurement to fish-head bodin s'present shapes and the resume of their original shapes, with several reasonable and ideal presumes, the author put forward the refraction rheology gauge of fish-head boudin.

认识到鱼嘴构造的纯剪切作用机制及其平面应变的特点，通过对香肠现有的几何参数的测量和计算以及对香肠构造演化初始阶段几何参数的恢复，在合理假设的理想状况下，推导出鱼嘴构造的应变差折射流变计。

Based on the assumption that the distribution of DCT coefficients in H.264 encoder follows Cauchy distribution, a macroblock layer bit rate model was derived. Then, the distortion was predicted by a linear model using the actual distortion and the quantization parameters of the previous frame.

首先，基于H.264编码器中DCT系数服从Cauchy分布的假设推导得出H.264宏块层的码率模型；并采用线性模型利用前一帧已知的失真度和量化参数值对失真度进行预测；最后，在宏块层通过Lagrange方法最小化失真度，确定宏块的量化参数。

On the basis of dual porosity theory,the well test interpretation model which considers the variation of krg versus the volume of liquid is also established and resolved by the implicit method numerically.

摘要通过分析凝析气藏的相图，建立了凝析液饱和度随压力降的变化规律，并回归得出了相应的公式；同时通过对气体压缩因子、黏度随压力、温度的变化，建立了这些参数和无因次压力的关系；在双重介质地层假设的基础上，建立了在试井过程中凝析气相对渗透率随凝析液饱和度变化的凝析气藏试井解释数学模型，采用隐式迭代的方法进行了求解并进行了参数敏感性分析；结果表明：凝析液的饱和度对凝析气藏试井的压力及压力导数曲线有着很大的影响，早期由于凝析液的析出，阻碍了气藏的流动，导致压力及压力导数曲线上升；在凝析液饱和度达到峰值之后，随着凝析液的挥发，凝析气的相对渗透率逐渐恢复，压力及压力导数曲线又回归到正常的径向流位置；由于裂缝和基岩之间的压力差，使得裂缝弹性储容比在测试过程中发生变化，进而影响了压力及压力导数；窜流系数和裂缝弹性储容比的变化决定了窜流段发生的早晚和程度；而基岩中气体黏度的变化使得窜流的发生稍微滞后。

The following conclusions have been made in this paper.(1) Based on CO_2 flux data of eddy covariance, variation characteristics of gross primary productivity in four flux observation stations were studied, which are an alpine meadow, an alpine shrub meadow, a swamp alpine meadow and a steppe alpine meadow at Dongxiong. The results show that photosynthetic capacity of the alpine meadow is the highest, and the annual total GPP is 652.2g C/m~2. Daily-differencing approach is used to analyze the random error of CO_2 fluxes measurements. The results show that the distribution of random error follows more closely follows a double-exponential, rather than a normal distribution, capturing the high peak and thick tail, and the random error varies with environment variables, which violates the assumptions for the ordinary least squares fitting with normality and homoscedasticity, consequently, we introduce maximum likelihood method for parameter optimization.

本文主要在以下几个方面开展工作并获得了一些认知和结论：(1)通过分析样带区域内高寒草甸、高寒灌丛、沼泽化湿地和草原化高寒草甸四个通量观测站点草地生态系统总初级生产力变化特征，研究结果表明HBBT矮嵩草草甸生态系统植被光合作用能力较强，年GPP总量为652.2 gC/m~2，明显高于其他三种生态系统；通过利用"单塔日变化法"获得四站点通量观测数据随机误差，结果表明通量观测随机误差概率分布呈现尖峰厚尾的特征，与正态分布相比，更服从双边指数分布，进一步分析表明通量观测随机误差随环境变量(风速、温度和光合有效辐射)的变化而变化，这违背了普通最小二乘法进行生态过程模型参数优化正态分布且误差同质的假设，因此本研究中引入最大似然法进行生态过程模型参数优化。

This model assumed "minimal repairing" such that any repair had no impact on the failure rate.

在产品进行最小修复的假设下，采用引入位置参数的三参数Weibull过程结合Peck加速模型对试验过程进行拟合。

Parametric method and nonparametric method should be chosen correctly, based on data distribution. We suggested analyzing repeat measured data with repeated measured ANOVA.

数据分析上需要注意参数与非参数统计方法的选择，对于重复测量的符合假设数据应该使用重复测量的方差分析。

Its rule of change was obtained.On the basis of other studies,the flocculation kinetics and floes structure was studied. By making some assumptions, collision frequency were presented.Then the the flocculation kinetics model was established through population balance equation. Comparison of experimental data and modeling results indicate that there are the same trend between the two. So the model can predict floes number and size during flocculation of Yellow River's loess particles without using empirical parameters.The TEM and SEM were used to obsever floes in the study of floe structure.The flocculation was divided as flocculi,floc and floe aggregate.The floes structure model was established by assumption that particles position in floe accords with tetrahedron.The fractal dimension of model and experimental floes was found to be coincidentSo the model can reflect the structure of flocs formed in flocculation of Yellow River's loess particles by macromolecule flocculant at a certain extent

最后，本文还对絮凝动力学和絮体结构进行了研究，在前人研究的基础上，针对高分子絮凝黄河泥沙，对絮凝过程作了一些符合试验条件的假设，建立了颗粒碰撞频率表达式，应用了颗粒数量平衡方程，从而建立了絮凝过程的动力学生长模型，模型计算结果与试验数据对比表明，二者趋势一致，在没有使用经验参数的情况下基本上能够描述黄河泥沙絮凝过程中絮体数量和尺寸分布的变化过程；对絮体结构的研究中，应用扫描电子显微镜和透射电子显微镜对絮体进行了观察，将絮体分为絮粒、絮团和絮网三个不同的生长阶段，通过假设颗粒结合位置符西安建筑科技大学博士学位论文合正四面体，建立了絮体结构模型，计算得到的模型絮体分形维数基本与试验中的实际絮体相符，在一定程度上能够反映高分子絮凝黄河泥沙生成的絮体结构。

The split between the two groups can hardly be papered over.

这两个团体间的分歧难以掩饰。

This approach not only encourages a greater number of responses, but minimizes the likelihood of stale groupthink.

这种做法不仅鼓励了更多的反应，而且减少跟风的可能性。