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准静态过程

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Firstly, This paper processes geometry filtration based on character of orbit's apogee and perigee after orbit model is analyzed and based. Secondly Space Debris is separated into two kinds, coplanar and not coplanar according as location interrelation of target and debris. In Dynamic filtration's processing, considering prediction time limit and orbit perturbation, secular effects which have increaser effect is considered so that some need catching danger time point is appeased, some law about time when target and debris pass intersectant line each other is inferred, when debris and object are in different plane and some similar law also is inferred otherwise. The time list is arithmetical progression. These laws can improve calculation efficiency remarkably; Lastly orbit predict is a course approaching least distance. Danger time point in the last step become beginning time point from which debris and object's position and velocity are calculated by SXP4 Model which is an analytic model.By result, determine that relative movement trend is closer or apart, farther calculate the interval apart from time when predictive least relative distance occurs. Least relative distance and time when least distance occurs is calculated finally. It is a fast approach course adopting varied interval.

本文在分析、建立轨道摄动计算模型的基础上,首先采用基于轨道远、近地点特征对大量编目在册的空间碎片进行初步几何静态筛选,然后根据碎片与目标轨道面的相对位置特点把碎片分为异面与准共面两种情况以进行动态筛选,在筛选过程中考虑到预报时限长度和轨道摄动影响,引入了轨道摄动中具有积累效应的长期项以满足危险时间点的捕捉要求,利用了长期项摄动变化线性的特点导出了碎片与目标异面情况下各自过交线的时间序列成准等差数列的规律性和准共面情况下类似的规律性,从而显著地提高了前期轨道筛选的计算效率;最后对剩余危险碎片和目标飞行器利用SXP4轨道预报模型在前期轨道筛选的基础上以各个危险探测时间点为预报的时间起点,并根据预报计算结果,分析目标和碎片在该时间点的运动趋势是相互远离还是相互接近,推出预计最小相对距离发生时刻相对此刻的时间长度,得到其随时间变化的局部最小相对距离以及危险距离发生的时刻和相对速度,这是一个采用变时间步长、快速逼近最小相对距离的过程。

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