决策的

Title: Study on Decision Rule Optimization and Organization of Group Decision-making Abstract Group decision-making, as one of the basic forms of decision-making, plays an important role in economic and political fields due to the ever-increasing complexity of decision issue and the enhanced democracy awareness. Research of group decision-making is receiving more and more attention as the cutting edge of decision-making theory. Fruitful results are achieved in this field, while there are still some weak aspects for further research, especially in the organization and decision process ot group decision-making. Researches in those fields are instrumental in optimizing the organization and decision process of group decision-making. And we have made some exploration in this paper as follows.

随着决策问题的日趋复杂化和人们民主意识的增强，群体决策作为决策的一种基本形式，在政治和经济生活中占有越来越重要的地位，而群体决策作为决策理论研究的热点和前沿也在国内外方兴未艾，并取得了丰硕的成果，但也存在一些薄弱环节和需要深入研究的问题，特别是在群体决策的组织结构和决策过程方面，如群体决策的规则优化、决策规则的约束性质、群体决策中领导的影响、决策者之间的相关性对决策质量的影响、序贯群体决策中各种组织因素对其决策质量、决策效率、决策收益的影响等等。

It brings forward the translation of the administration function from controlling to serving, the translation of the administration institution from variety to simplification, thallus and network, the translation of the frame of the administration power from centralization to deconcentration, the translation of the administration decision from focus to democracy, the translation of the

在我国的行政决策体制中，存在着许多决策失误现象，给公众带来了巨大的利益损失，文章定义和分类了行政决策的失误，分析了公共决策失误根本来自与体制和制度的问题体现在包括决策权力的集中等方面，为了防止公共决策的失误，文章提出了借鉴国际先进经验，探索建立健全科学民主的决策体制和决策机制，完善政府决策的程序，进而完善我国政府决策体制。

In this paper, the concept of belief degree for quantitative decision model in a complex environment is presented at the first time. The integration of formulization and reasoning of quantitative model with qualitative judgement is studied. The combination of various belief degree generated by quantitative model and qualitative judgement is discussed. A decisio...

文章首先提出了复杂环境下定量决策模型的信度概念及计算方法，然后研究了定量决策模型与经验判断在描述方式及推理方面的统一，最后探讨了对于分别由定量决策模型及专家经验所推论出的结论的合成，并提出了在复杂环境下的"决策的最优性与决策的信度权衡"的决策方法。

The innovation of the article lies in:(1)gives the evolution process of decision model a systematic pectination, illuminates the internal logic and regularity of all kinds of decision models, and points out the limitation of each kind of decision model in the information age.(2)on basis of analyzing the evolution of the relation between several main decision models, elucidates an enterprise decision model ITDMM creatively which adapts the information age on all the aspects of decision models such as the main body of decision, procedure, method, internal environment and so on.

本文的创新之处在于：（1）系统梳理了决策模式的演进过程，阐释了决策模式的内在逻辑性和规律性，并指出各种决策模式在信息化时代所具有的局限性；（2）在分析几种主要决策模式之间关系演变的基础上，创新性地阐发了信息化时代ITDMM企业决策模式——从决策的主体、决策的程序、决策的方法和决策的内部环境等各个方面适应信息化时代的企业决策模式。

Now, the main decision making techniques on the relevant logistics field both at home and abroad are the traditional logistics outsource decision making technique, the decision standard developed by Ballow, the Quinn method for decision-making, the cost and key ability integrated decision-making model, and etc., but few study specially aims to the storage type decision-making.

目前国内外相关的物流决策方法主要有传统物流外包决策方法、Ballow开发的决策标准、Quinn方法决策以及成本与核心能力集成角度下的物流决策模型等等，但是专门针对物流仓储系统类型决策的决策方法还研究较少。

Therefore, it can be regarded as a great improvement of the investment decision-making theory and methods .This article makes a systematic research on real options theory and method and its application, including the following several main aspects:Firstly, it makes a detailed discussion about the common theoretical basis of financial options and real options, including no-arbitrage equilibrium principle, risk-neutral definition, complete market and dynamic tracking.Secondly, it analyze three basic characteristic of investment decision-making in modern market economic system: irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility, and from the angle of their mutual quantitative and qualitative interactions, it makes a comparison between the traditional NPV methods and real options methods and makes a summary of the general analytical methods of real options.Thirdly, it discusses the all elements in the application of real options such as the ^leakages in value of real assets, basis risk, and private risk, and furthermore, it attempts to put forth a normalized strategy of its application and construct a basic framework of its application.Fourthly, it applies real options theory to strategetic investment of enterprises and the buy-out of company, putting forth a value model for strategetic investment program and making a concrete analysis of its application to buy-out. Furthermore, it advocates that a flexible investment decision-making system should be setup according to real options theory in our country.

本文对实物期权理论和方法及其应用进行了系统研究，主要内容包括如下几个方面：(1)详细讨论了金融期权和实物期权共同的理论基础，主要包括无套利均衡原理、风险中性定义、完全市场以及动态复制方法，对这些理论方法的探讨既是本文的出发点和基础，它们提供了研究实际应用实物期权的一个基准点，也是贯穿全文的线索和灵魂；(2)分析了现代市场经济体系中投资决策的三个基本特征即不可逆性、不确定性和时机选择，并从它们数量上和质量上相互作用的重要意义的角度，分析了传统的净现值法与实物期权方法的差异，指出了净现值法在不确定环境中存在的缺陷及实物期权处理投资灵活性的价值，并将净现值法纳入实物期权投资分析决策体系当中，总结了企业投资决策实物期权的一般分析方法；(3)探讨了实物期权应用中要考虑的各种要素，如实物资产的价值漏损、基差风险和非市场风险等，并进一步提出了实物期权应用的规范化策略和构建了一个实际应用实物期权方法的基本框架，尝试将期权的基本原理与企业在现实经济环境中投资决策的要素结合起来，从而可以在一定程度上超越期权的复杂的数学计算而汲取期权思想的精华，从而促进期权决策方法在实际投资决策中的应用；(4)将实物期权方法应用于企业战略投资，得出了战略投资项目的价值模型，指出可以将实物期权理论和方法应用于企业并购，分析了应用的具体方面，并提出应根据实物期权理论建立一套适合我国企业的灵活的投资决策系统。

The paper brings forward the conception of command decision-making in space war and it~′s uncertainty,gives methods and gist to compartmentalizing the uncertainty problem about command decision-making in space war.Furthermore,from the point view of composing elements,the uncertainty factor about decision-maker,decision-making tool and decision-making inf...

提出了空间作战指挥决策与空间作战指挥决策不确定性的概念；给出了划分空间作战指挥决策不确定性问题的方法、依据；从组成要素的角度，研究了决策主体、决策工具、决策信息中存在的不确定性因素，以及对空间作战指挥决策的影响。

In this invited paper, the Team of Behavioral Decision Making at Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, its research areas and its orientation were debriefed.

在过去的1年里，中国科学院心理研究所行为决策课题组在社会与经济决策领域中已开展的研究包括：行为决策与脑、社会互动与决策、决策的文化差异、消费与投资的行为决策、效用最大化与幸福感。

In this invited paper, the Team of Behavioral Decision Making at Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, its research areas and its orientation were debriefed. The most recent research results of the team members since 2005 were presented and discussed.

在过去的1年里，中国科学院心理研究所行为决策课题组在社会与经济决策领域中已开展的研究包括：行为决策与脑、社会互动与决策、决策的文化差异、消费与投资的行为决策、效用最大化与幸福感。

Engrafting L.A.Zadeh one branch fuzzy decision theory with RSA algorithm in information security, this paper gives concepts of multi-cooperation encryption and multi-cooperation sharing fuzzy decision; innovatively gives mathematical structures of group encryption and multi-group sharing fuzzy decision; finally gives safe fuzzy decision algorithm and its applications; safe fuzzy decision is a new direction of fuzzy decision research.

将L.A.Zadeh单枝模糊决策理论与信息安全中的RSA算法相互嫁接，相互渗透，提出了多合作加密与多合作共享模糊决策的概念；创新性地给出了集团加密与多集团共享模糊决策的数学结构；最后给出安全模糊决策算法以及它的应用；安全模糊决策是模糊决策研究的一个新的方向。

On the other hand, the more important thing is because the urban housing is a kind of heterogeneity products.

另一方面，更重要的是由于城市住房是一种异质性产品。

Climate histogram is the fall that collects place measure calm value, cent serves as cross axle for a few equal interval, the area that the frequency that the value appears according to place is accumulated and becomes will be determined inside each interval, discharge the graph that rise with post, also be called histogram.

气候直方图是将所收集的降水量测定值，分为几个相等的区间作为横轴，并将各区间内所测定值依所出现的次数累积而成的面积，用柱子排起来的图形，也叫做柱状图。