决策

From late fifties of last century, some scientists headed by Allais and Edwards, try to check the facticity of the rational decision-making models applied to the real decision-making behavior, but find it unsatisfactory.

1944年，Von Neumann和0skar Morgenstern建立了理性行为公理体系，标志着现代决策理论的开端，为规范型决策理论奠定了基石，并在管理、经济和工程技术中得到广泛应用和纵深发展，成为理性决策的科学依据。

Theexpected utility theory based on the axioms isalso very important in modern decision-making theory.Form late fifties lastcentury,some scientists ahead by Allais and Edwards,try to check the facticity ofthe rational decision-making models applied to the real decision-making behavior,but find it unsatisfactory.For example,Allais Paradox and Preference Circleschallenge the axioms critically.

从二十世纪五十年代后期开始，以Allais和Edwards为首的一批学者从心理学的角度参与了实际决策行为的研究，他们从实证的观点去考察理性决策模型在实际决策行为中的真实性，不断地发现这些模型在应用中表现出各种偏差，Allais悖论的设计和克星循环现象的发现对Von Neumann-Morgenstern理性行为公理提出了有力的挑战。

This paper studies the development of production of Hunan Potentiometer General Factory with the Analytical Hierarchy Process.

1决策分析的主要方法我们利用层次分析法来进行决策分析，这是一种定性与定量分析相结合的决策方法，它将决策者对复杂问题的思维过程数学化。

Four basic processes are analyzed in detail in network security decision,which are the base of NSDSS security decision. Then, developing strategies and methods are analyzed according to the objective and task of the system. Antetype method with RAD speciality is chosen to lead the developing process of the system. The structure of "Four-Base and Seven-System" of NSDSS is decided, based on which, the Function and Structure of Man-Machine Conversation system, General Management system, Data Base system, Model and Method Base system, knowledge base system, Causing and solving problems system are discussed. The basic theories and methods of each part are discussed. In the designing process of Model Base System, detailed analysis is given to the models of prediction, evaluation and management in the course of security decision. Moreover, basic process and method are discussed on question generation and solution. Then, detailed explanation is provided on the integration and implement of the system. After that, it is suggested that implement of the system should be carried through the process of the system.

论文首先对NSDSS涉及到的相关知识进行了讨论，详细分析了网络安全决策中的四个基本过程，这是NSDSS进行安全决策的基础；随后依据系统的目标和任务，对系统的开发策略和方法进行了分析，选择具有RAD能力的原型法指导整个系统的开发过程；确定了NSDSS"四库七系统"的整体结构；在此基础上，分别探讨了人机对话系统、通用管理系统、数据库系统、模型库和方法库系统、知识库系统、问题生成和求解系统的功能和结构，对各部件的基本原理和实现方法进行了论述；在模型库系统的设计过程中，对安全决策过程中运用到的安全预测、安全评估、安全管理等模型进行了详细的分析；仔细探讨了问题生成和求解的基本过程和方法；较为详细地阐述了系统集成和实施的有关问题，面向系统的成功实现，提出了将系统实施贯串于整个系统开发过程中的思想。

Thus, a new approach was proposed to solve these problems. A case study on alarm icon design for process control systems was used to demonstrate how the axiomatic design method with users' preferences on icon elements as inputs works for measuring the decision objectives, eliminating undesired alternatives, and suggesting the optimal alternative.

因此，本研究尝试以使用者对於图像元件之偏好程为基础，结合公设计方法，以程序控制系统中之警报图像设计为，对图像设计的决策问题提出新的决策方法，使其能明确与有效的衡决策目标，并能控制备选方案的，使决策者能根据此方法所预测的后果选取最好的方案。

Main results in this paper are that the barycenter model selects barycenter of ideal allocation set as the outcome of...

主要结论是：资源分配群体决策的解是决策成员理想方案的重心；决策成员理想方案的重心是Pareto最优

What's more, there is still some bewilderment with the exploring on the strategies of the consumer-brand-decision.

这一现象也与决策过程的动态机制有关，在决策过程的不同阶段可能有不同的决策策略。

Part 2 studies the adaptive control of general MDP with the same parameter set as part 1. In part 3, the biased maximum likelihood estimator is used for the adaptive control uncertain POMDP and an optimal method is proposed.

第一部分在离散化参数集的基础上提出一种比现有方法效率更高的自适应决策方法；第二部分在第一部分的思想上，研究一般MDP的自适应决策；第三部分则将有偏极大似然法从MDP推广到POMDP，研究POMDP自适应决策。

For the fuzzy group decision making problem, in which the preference patterns of both individual and group are fuzzy, the fuzzy Borda number rule is provided.

对于决策个体和决策群体的偏爱均为模糊结构的群体决策问题，建立了模糊 Borda数规则，并研究了它的性质和满足模糊偏爱公理系的情况。

Lots of empirical studies show that the actual processesand results of investors'decision-making are very different from that described byMFT's optimal investment decision-making model because of judgement anddecision biases arising from investors'psychological biases and informationasymmetry , investors'bounded rationality below the MFT's requirement.

大量的实证研究表明，实际中由于投资者固有的一些心理偏差和信息不对称的存在，使得投资者的认知能力和判断能力以及判断的准确度往往存在偏差，远远低于经典现代金融理论对投资者的理性要求，投资者的实际决策过程和决策结果与经典现代金融理论的最优投资决策模型所描述的大相径庭。

On the other hand, the more important thing is because the urban housing is a kind of heterogeneity products.

另一方面，更重要的是由于城市住房是一种异质性产品。

Climate histogram is the fall that collects place measure calm value, cent serves as cross axle for a few equal interval, the area that the frequency that the value appears according to place is accumulated and becomes will be determined inside each interval, discharge the graph that rise with post, also be called histogram.

气候直方图是将所收集的降水量测定值，分为几个相等的区间作为横轴，并将各区间内所测定值依所出现的次数累积而成的面积，用柱子排起来的图形，也叫做柱状图。