决策

Title: Study on Decision Rule Optimization and Organization of Group Decision-making Abstract Group decision-making, as one of the basic forms of decision-making, plays an important role in economic and political fields due to the ever-increasing complexity of decision issue and the enhanced democracy awareness. Research of group decision-making is receiving more and more attention as the cutting edge of decision-making theory. Fruitful results are achieved in this field, while there are still some weak aspects for further research, especially in the organization and decision process ot group decision-making. Researches in those fields are instrumental in optimizing the organization and decision process of group decision-making. And we have made some exploration in this paper as follows.

随着决策问题的日趋复杂化和人们民主意识的增强，群体决策作为决策的一种基本形式，在政治和经济生活中占有越来越重要的地位，而群体决策作为决策理论研究的热点和前沿也在国内外方兴未艾，并取得了丰硕的成果，但也存在一些薄弱环节和需要深入研究的问题，特别是在群体决策的组织结构和决策过程方面，如群体决策的规则优化、决策规则的约束性质、群体决策中领导的影响、决策者之间的相关性对决策质量的影响、序贯群体决策中各种组织因素对其决策质量、决策效率、决策收益的影响等等。

Decision rule chain and distance function of decision rule are proposed, by which the order of decision rules are explained. The group scale's effect on decision quality and the marginal contribution of decision-makers are analyzed. It's pointed out that the increase of the scale will enhance the decision quality with the optimal decision rule applied. Otherwise it is likely to weaken the decision quality. It's proved that for homogeneous group with simple majority rule applied the marginal contribution of decision-maker will decrease while the scale increases or the decisional competencies of other decision-makers increase; 3.We study the group decision-making with a leader in it. It's proved that the existence of the leader impairs the decision quality when the group applies the optimal decision rule.

研究了决策者的决策能力不确定情况下的群体决策，给出了最优决策规则，指出其仍然是广义加权多数规则；提出了决策规则链和决策规则距离函数的概念，利用这些概念解释了群体决策规则的序现象；分析了群体规模对决策质量的影响、决策者决策能力的边际贡献，指出当群体应用最优规则时，群体规模的增大会提高决策质量，否则群体规模的增大可能会削弱决策质量；证明了对于应用简单多数规则的同质群体，随着其规模的增大，决策者决策能力对决策质量的边际贡献会减小；随着其他决策者决策能力的提高，决策者决策能力对决策质量的边际贡献也会减小； 3。

It brings forward the translation of the administration function from controlling to serving, the translation of the administration institution from variety to simplification, thallus and network, the translation of the frame of the administration power from centralization to deconcentration, the translation of the administration decision from focus to democracy, the translation of the

在我国的行政决策体制中，存在着许多决策失误现象，给公众带来了巨大的利益损失，文章定义和分类了行政决策的失误，分析了公共决策失误根本来自与体制和制度的问题体现在包括决策权力的集中等方面，为了防止公共决策的失误，文章提出了借鉴国际先进经验，探索建立健全科学民主的决策体制和决策机制，完善政府决策的程序，进而完善我国政府决策体制。

The innovation of the article lies in:(1)gives the evolution process of decision model a systematic pectination, illuminates the internal logic and regularity of all kinds of decision models, and points out the limitation of each kind of decision model in the information age.(2)on basis of analyzing the evolution of the relation between several main decision models, elucidates an enterprise decision model ITDMM creatively which adapts the information age on all the aspects of decision models such as the main body of decision, procedure, method, internal environment and so on.

本文的创新之处在于：（1）系统梳理了决策模式的演进过程，阐释了决策模式的内在逻辑性和规律性，并指出各种决策模式在信息化时代所具有的局限性；（2）在分析几种主要决策模式之间关系演变的基础上，创新性地阐发了信息化时代ITDMM企业决策模式——从决策的主体、决策的程序、决策的方法和决策的内部环境等各个方面适应信息化时代的企业决策模式。

Now, the main decision making techniques on the relevant logistics field both at home and abroad are the traditional logistics outsource decision making technique, the decision standard developed by Ballow, the Quinn method for decision-making, the cost and key ability integrated decision-making model, and etc., but few study specially aims to the storage type decision-making.

目前国内外相关的物流决策方法主要有传统物流外包决策方法、Ballow开发的决策标准、Quinn方法决策以及成本与核心能力集成角度下的物流决策模型等等，但是专门针对物流仓储系统类型决策的决策方法还研究较少。

This work contributed essentially to optimal planning of refinery management. A strategy for solving the decision problem of short—term refinery planning is proposed, that is, to obtain the real time information of unit operations and environmental conditions by means of computer simulation, to dynamically configurate and modify the decision model depending on both simulation and expert reasoning, to make decision analysis and short—term production plan with the aid of expert simulation system. In this paper, a new approach cellad ESDSS was proposed by integrating DSS and expert simulation system . As a case study of ESDSS, a so called RESDSS was constructed, which is composed of seven subsystems, namely: data base subsystem, model base subsystem, method base subsystem, knowledge base subsystem, experiment base subsystem, human computer interaction subsystem, and expert simulation executing subsystem. The main results and contributions of this work are as follows:(1) A novel approach of DSS named ESDSS was proposed, which integrates DSS and ESS.

本文关于炼油生产专家仿真决策支持系统原型的研究从炼油企业优化生产管理的角度出发，以&利用仿真技术获取装置操作和环境条件的动态变化信息，依靠专家方法仿真实现决策模型的生成和修改，凭借专家仿真决策支持系统辅助高层领导者实施决策分析和制定短期生产计划&作为炼油生产短期计划决策问题的求解策略，在综合考虑决策支持系统（Decision Sup-port Systems，简称DSS）和专家仿真系统（Expert Simulation System，简称ESS）特点的同时把这两个系统结合在一起而提出&专家仿真决策支持系统（Ex-pert Simulation Decision Support System，简称ESDSS）&这一新的构思。

MOES partition orange' yield to seven subsystems, viz. breed' choice, to alter earth and build orchard, to breed seeding, planting and engrafting, field' manage, prevention and cure of the plant diseases and insect pests, to pick and store.Knowledge's denotation form, viz. knowledge of the description, data, rule, aggregation etc were adopted.Some expert' decision-making sustaining systems, for example, soil' information systems, hyper text database, photograph database, knowledge' rule-base etc are used as supple mentary means.The methods of "bring","decision-making tree" and "weighted illegible logic", to construct five decision-making modules, viz. the decision-making of breed, a period of seeding time, planting density, fertilizer and plant diseases and insect pests were also adopted.

MOES将柑桔生产分为品种选择、改土建园、繁育壮苗、定植与嫁接、田间管理、病虫害防治、采收与贮藏7个子系统，采用描述型知识、数据型知识、规则型知识、集合型知识等知识表示形式，配以土壤信息系统、超文本数据库、图片数据库、知识规则库等专家决策支持系统，采用&产生式&、&决策树&和&加权模糊逻辑&的方法构建了品种决策、播期决策、定植密度决策、肥料决策和病虫害诊断五个决策模块。

Research on the related attribute of evidence, influence and method of dealing with is carried out. Result of experiment demonstrates that the method can lead to the reliable decision effectively. Aiming at conflicting problem of decision making, fusion strategy of BPA reassign is adopted in coordinator of GDSS. Aiming at contradictory of decision-making, the process of decision-making is divided into two stages that are learning and decision-making. Each Agent is trained by proper information given by training example to eliminate contradictories among decision-making Agents and correct mistakes that ensure Agents cooperate effectively in the stage of cooperating decision.(3) In order to overcome the flaw of current GDSS that can only support static problem solving, adopting the method that combing Multi-Decision-Making-Agents Reinforcement Learning and the metempirical knowledge learning, the paper puts forward Reinforcement Learning and optimization under dynamic environment.

提出采用证据理论的证据合成作为协调器中决策Agent的融合策略，对群体决策支持系统的协调器进行决策融合过程中可能出现的情况进行了详细的分析，研究了证据的相关性及其在决策融合过程中的影响，提出了相关证据的处理方法，实验结果表明，该方法可有效保证决策结果的可靠性；针对决策过程中的冲突问题，提出协调器采用基本信任指派二次分配的协调策略；针对决策过程中的矛盾，提出将决策过程分为学习和决策两个阶段，各决策者Agent根据有限的训练样本所给出的正确信息进行训练，消除决策者Agent之间的矛盾和修正决策者Agent自身的错误，从而保证合作决策阶段实现有效的合作决策。

Therefore, it can be regarded as a great improvement of the investment decision-making theory and methods .This article makes a systematic research on real options theory and method and its application, including the following several main aspects:Firstly, it makes a detailed discussion about the common theoretical basis of financial options and real options, including no-arbitrage equilibrium principle, risk-neutral definition, complete market and dynamic tracking.Secondly, it analyze three basic characteristic of investment decision-making in modern market economic system: irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility, and from the angle of their mutual quantitative and qualitative interactions, it makes a comparison between the traditional NPV methods and real options methods and makes a summary of the general analytical methods of real options.Thirdly, it discusses the all elements in the application of real options such as the ^leakages in value of real assets, basis risk, and private risk, and furthermore, it attempts to put forth a normalized strategy of its application and construct a basic framework of its application.Fourthly, it applies real options theory to strategetic investment of enterprises and the buy-out of company, putting forth a value model for strategetic investment program and making a concrete analysis of its application to buy-out. Furthermore, it advocates that a flexible investment decision-making system should be setup according to real options theory in our country.

本文对实物期权理论和方法及其应用进行了系统研究，主要内容包括如下几个方面：(1)详细讨论了金融期权和实物期权共同的理论基础，主要包括无套利均衡原理、风险中性定义、完全市场以及动态复制方法，对这些理论方法的探讨既是本文的出发点和基础，它们提供了研究实际应用实物期权的一个基准点，也是贯穿全文的线索和灵魂；(2)分析了现代市场经济体系中投资决策的三个基本特征即不可逆性、不确定性和时机选择，并从它们数量上和质量上相互作用的重要意义的角度，分析了传统的净现值法与实物期权方法的差异，指出了净现值法在不确定环境中存在的缺陷及实物期权处理投资灵活性的价值，并将净现值法纳入实物期权投资分析决策体系当中，总结了企业投资决策实物期权的一般分析方法；(3)探讨了实物期权应用中要考虑的各种要素，如实物资产的价值漏损、基差风险和非市场风险等，并进一步提出了实物期权应用的规范化策略和构建了一个实际应用实物期权方法的基本框架，尝试将期权的基本原理与企业在现实经济环境中投资决策的要素结合起来，从而可以在一定程度上超越期权的复杂的数学计算而汲取期权思想的精华，从而促进期权决策方法在实际投资决策中的应用；(4)将实物期权方法应用于企业战略投资，得出了战略投资项目的价值模型，指出可以将实物期权理论和方法应用于企业并购，分析了应用的具体方面，并提出应根据实物期权理论建立一套适合我国企业的灵活的投资决策系统。

The paper brings forward the conception of command decision-making in space war and it~′s uncertainty,gives methods and gist to compartmentalizing the uncertainty problem about command decision-making in space war.Furthermore,from the point view of composing elements,the uncertainty factor about decision-maker,decision-making tool and decision-making inf...

提出了空间作战指挥决策与空间作战指挥决策不确定性的概念；给出了划分空间作战指挥决策不确定性问题的方法、依据；从组成要素的角度，研究了决策主体、决策工具、决策信息中存在的不确定性因素，以及对空间作战指挥决策的影响。

On the other hand, the more important thing is because the urban housing is a kind of heterogeneity products.

另一方面，更重要的是由于城市住房是一种异质性产品。

Climate histogram is the fall that collects place measure calm value, cent serves as cross axle for a few equal interval, the area that the frequency that the value appears according to place is accumulated and becomes will be determined inside each interval, discharge the graph that rise with post, also be called histogram.

气候直方图是将所收集的降水量测定值，分为几个相等的区间作为横轴，并将各区间内所测定值依所出现的次数累积而成的面积，用柱子排起来的图形，也叫做柱状图。