主观概率

We assign 75%, 15%, and 10% subjective probabilities to the base, bear, and bull cases, respectively.

我们为基础情形，牛市情形，熊市情形分配的主观概率分别为75%， 15%，和10%。

Subjective probabilities are complementary in binary case and subadditivity in general case.4 subjective probability judgment has unpacking effect and enhance effect.

主观概率在二元判断中表现出二元互补性，在多元判断中表现出次可加性；4。主观概率判断存在分解效应和促进效应。

We also discuss the essence of probability, and point out that there are two kinds of probabilities. Objective probability is controlled by nature while subjective probability exists with subject.

作者探讨了概率的本质，指出概率有两种一种是自然界控制的客观概率，另一种是依赖于观测主体而存在的主观概率。

Support theory is a nonextensional theory of subjective probability judgment, which has several arguments:(1) subjective probability is influenced by description, which has description-dependence.

支持理论是一个关于主观概率判断的非外延性理论，它有以下几个主要观点：1。主观概率判断受到描述的影响，具有描述的依赖性；2。

The subjects subjective probability of judgment /decision-making confidence is significantly higher than environmental objective probability, which shows overconfidence.

2总体而言，随着环境客观概率的提高，个体自信心的主观概率也随之提高；自信心的主观概率显著高于环境客观概率，表现出过分自信。

It introduces the way for knowledge expression in subjective probability terms and makes a further discussion on the significance and methods of horizontal dimensionality and vertical dimensionality of organization knowledge in subjective probability terms.

提出基于心理学的知识定义，分析知识的信念特征；给出基于主观概率表征知识的方法；深入探讨基于主观概率的组织知识的纵向维度分析和横向维度分析的意义及其表征方法。

This article first introduce development course of the project risk assessment theory, in the foundation of summarizing each kind of project risk assessment method good and bad points, elaborate the article research basic point - tradition sensitivity analysis principle and the good and bad points, summarize the present subjective probability and the objective probability still have the deficiency to its improvement, obtain the conclusion that the improvement sensitive analysis still is the qualitative analysis.

本文首先介绍了项目风险评估理论的发展历程，在总结了各种项目风险评估方法优缺点的基础上，阐述了本文的研究基点——传统敏感性分析的原理及其优缺点，总结了现行的主观概率和客观概率对它的改进仍然存在着不足之处，得出改进后的敏感性分析仍然是定性分析的结论。

I think that rather than trying to go through the back door with unreasonably low …it is much better to go directly through the front door with the legitimate concern that there is a chance, whose subjective probability is small but diffuse, that global warming may eventually cause disastrous temperatures and environmental catastrophes.

我觉得，与其从后门偷偷摸摸塞进一个低到不合理的折现率，倒不如从前门堂堂正正地进去，宣称我们现在有正当的理由担心全球变暖终将引致温度和环境的灾难，其发生的主观概率虽小，但是却有相当分散的概率分布。

The fourth is to adjust the initial probability estimate. Historical bidding experiences can be introduced into the model through the subjective probability judgment and the initial probability judgment can be adjusted. The model has been applied in the annual bidding dealings of northeast regional electricity market and results verify the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed model.

通过中标概率主观判断的概念把历史报价的经验引入到竞价策略模型中，并通过主观概率判断的演进实现对初始概率判断的调整从而实现发电商的经验报价趋近于真实值，在东北区域电力市场初期年度第一轮竞价交易中，算例结果验证了该方法的实用性和有效性。

Based on physical characteristics, existing stochastic estimation methods of equipment sensitivity to voltage sag use subjective probability models to express the probability distribution of voltage tolerance curve of equipment in the uncertain region. But the parameter estimation needs vast sample data. These methods may result in man-made errors.

现有负荷敏感度随机估计法以电压暂降的物理特征为基础，用主观概率模型描述负荷电压耐受曲线(voltage tolerance curve，VTC)的随机分布规律，所需样本量大，在实际中难以实现且可能引入主观误差。

Singer Leona Lewis and former Led Zeppelin guitarist Jimmy Page emerged as the bus transformed into a grass-covered carnival float, and the pair combined for a rendition of "Whole Lotta Love".

歌手leona刘易斯和前率领的飞艇的吉他手吉米页出现巴士转化为基层所涵盖的嘉年华花车，和一双合并为一移交&整个lotta爱&。

This is Kate, and that's Erin.

这是凯特，那个是爱朗。