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Based on thoroughly research, the author draws some following conclusions:(1) the origin of new bilateralism in Asia-Pacific is that each country altered its trade policy to maximize its gains from trade when they faced common external shocks, which is not only to satisfy the restrains of internationally political and economic environments but also to help each government to balance internal political economy when they implement trade liberalization;(2) it has been a common trade policy for each country in Asia-Pacific to set up bilateral trade agreements as soon as possible and as much as possible to obtain hub position in the network of bilateralism;(3) with the inevitable spread of bilateralism, China, as a developing large trade economy, should take first start to guide a favorable process of regional economic integration depending on its booming economy, large domestic market, cheap labor price and abundant natural resources in aim to get much more benefits and advantages.

经过笔者研究,《亚太新双边主义的政治经济学分析》一文得到如下结论:其一,亚太新双边主义的兴起是20世纪末亚太地区各经济体在面临外部冲击的情况下,权衡内部政治经济,选择在当前国际政治经济环境的约束下能够最大化自身利益的贸易政策的必然结果;其二,尽可能快尽可能多地签订双边自由贸易协定,谋求新双边主义中的"轮轴国"地位已经成为各经济体今后较长时间内对外贸易政策的共识;其三,区域经济一体化中的新双边主义趋势已经不可避免,中国作为发展中的贸易大国,应该凭借不断增长的经济、广阔的国内市场、廉价的国内劳动力和丰富的国内资源,发挥先发优势,谋求以我为主的区域经济一体化进程,争取有利的战略地位和更多的利益。

Then it puts forward sub-regional-economic cooperation as the best choice for Yunnan and its neighboring countries to have economic and trade cooperation. In the practical study of developing Yunnan"s frontier trade, this essay analyzes to the full the current situation and existing problems of developing Yunnan frontier trade, combining with China"s accession to WTO, exploration of the west regions and the founding of the ASEAN. Frontier trade plays an important role in the nation"s and Yunnan province"s social economic life. It has great influence on the nation"s safety. Frontier trade is centered on the low-cost consumable supplies and consignation trade. Its prosperity for a long time relies on the inland, which constitutes three remarkable characteristics of Yunnan"s frontier trade.

在开展云南省边境贸易的实践研究中,本文从六个方面较为全面地分析了云南省边境贸易发展的现状、存在的问题,指出:边境贸易在全国和全省社会经济生活中占有重要地位,对国家安全影响深远;边境贸易以低附加值商品和易货贸易为主;边境贸易市场的繁荣长期依赖内地,是云南省边境贸易最显著的三个特点,结合中国加入WTO、西部大开发、大东盟的成立等,对云南边境贸易在新时期的发展方向作了一些初浅的探讨。

Firstly, it seeks the sources from which theories have been developed, by a summary of evolution or a road-map. Secondly, it explains the two basic forms taken by traditional theories on intra-industry trade, namely, horizontal intra-industry trade model and vertical intra-industry trade model. Both models take final products as trade objects and products of same industry are thus simultaneously exported and imported among developed nations and among developed nations and developing ones.Thirdly, it points out that the theory of vertical intra-industry trade has already been expanded in scope in the area of trade between developed countries and LDCs. It shows that the implication of vertical intra-industry trade has expanded to the importation and exportation of parts and components, intermediate products or processing products produced via various working procedures or different production links within the same industry, with MNCs as carriers. It gives the summary of the methods of measuring intra-industry trade and argues that the basic method adopted by this thesis is G-L Index. In addition, GHM and Input-output Analysis are introduced to demonstrate the expansion of vertical intra-industry trade.

首先,通过整理国际贸易理论的发展脉络,寻求产业内贸易的理论渊源;其次,阐述产业内贸易传统理论的两种基本形式,水平型产业内贸易与垂直型产业内贸易的理论模型,指出两者都以最终产品为贸易对象,实现了发达国家之间或发达国家与发展中国家之间的同一产业内产品的同时进口和出口;第三,结合全球化的特点和跨国公司在国际要素分工中的基础作用,指出发达国家与发展中国家之间的垂直型产业内贸易理论已经得到拓展,表明垂直型产业内贸易涵义已发展成为以跨国公司为载体的同一产业内不同生产工序或不同生产环节的零部件、中间产品或加工产品的进口和出口;最后,归纳了产业内贸易的计量方法,指出本文的产业内贸易基本计量方法是G-L指数(格鲁贝尔-洛伊德计量法),并在此基础上进一步说明与垂直型产业内贸易的拓展相关的计量方法包括:GHM计量法和Hummels投入-产出分析法。

Then the author analyzes empirically China's terms of trade from 1981,and the causes of the change in the net barter terms of trade by means of regression analysis ,which can be quantitied.we get the results that China's net barter terms of trade had a declining trend while its income terms and factorial terms of trade had been improved,and the net barter terms of trade positively correlates with actual tariff rate,exchange rate and negatively correlates with GDP,besides,the factors which can not be quantitied such as pure price fighting,inappropiate tariff sytem,foreign-invested enterprises's tranfer pricing and region trade agreement also lead to the above trend of China's net barter terms of trade,and the change in China's net barter terms of trade had a neglect impact on international trade benefit.

得出中国价格贸易条件总体上存在下降趋势,收入、要素条件呈现改善的趋势;实际关税率、汇率与价格贸易条件存在正相关关系,GDP指数与其负相关。出口企业恶性价格竞争、不合理的关税体制、外资企业的转移定价、区域贸易集团是造成中国价格贸易条件下降的非量化因素。此外,本文分析了1981-2004年价格贸易条件变动导致的中国国际贸易利益变化,发现价格贸易条件变动对中国国际贸易利益产生了一定的负面影响。最后,本文在分析中国价格贸易条件变动环境的基础上,认为中国工业化阶段不高、贸易限制性政策实施空间的减小、&合成谬误&现象及知识经济时代的到来会在一定时期内对价格贸易条件变动不利。

We accomplished the whole study by the following logic: according to the currency of the world grain trade flow, we constructed the grain trade gravity model and analyzed the main influential factors on the grain trade flow to promote the function of regional trade liberalization on the grain trade flow and forecast the accurate effects of the future regional trade liberalization organization on the main national grain trade varieties under the general balance frame.

全文按以下思路展开,根据世界粮食贸易流动的现状,通过构建粮食贸易引力模型,对影响粮食贸易流动的主要因素进行分析,判断区域贸易自由化对粮食贸易流动具有促进作用,进而在一般均衡的框架下预测未来可能成立的区域贸易自由化组织对我国主要粮食贸易品种的具体影响。

Based on the study of scholars at home and abroad and from the point of theoretical and empirical study, this paper analyses the impact of foreign trade and FDI over China's business cycle using many econometric methods such as Unit Root Test, Co-integration Tests, Granger Test, Pulse-response Function and variance decomposition based on VAR model and draws the conclusion as follows:Firstly,there is a close relationship among foreign trade, FDI and business cycle. Foreign trade and FDI are the important transmission channel of the economic cycle. Secondly, the impact to economic fluctuation from foreign trade is greater than that of FDI. Thirdly, In the long time, there is fine interactive circulation among foreign trade, FDI and economic growth. When the short-term deviation from equilibrium happens, there is a self-balanced mechanism in the system.Fourthly,the active effect outweighs the negative effect which the foreign trade and FDI brings.

本文在国内外学者研究成果的基础上,从理论和实证两个方面,运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析及方差分解等计量经济学的方法,从比较的角度分析了对外贸易及FDI对我国经济周期波动的影响,得出结论如下:首先,对外贸易、FDI与我国经济的波动有着显著的关系,二者是传递经济周期的重要渠道;其次,对外贸易对我国经济波动的影响要大于FDI的作用;第三,长期看我国FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间形成良好的互动循环,当系统短期内偏离均衡状态时,系统存在一个自我均衡机制;第四,对外贸易及FDI对我国经济周期波动产生的积极效应要远大于它所带来的负面效应。

That is nothing to sniff at considering the collapse of world trade on which the region depends.

考虑到东亚地区赖以发展的全球贸易的崩溃,这种预期没有什么太大的可疑之处。

As a strong market leader, COLI deserves to trade on par with its NAV.

作为市场领跑者,中国海外的股价应与其每股净现值持平。

National system of innovations will become more open but still"trade"on their particular and specialisms.

国家创新体系将更加开放,但仍将保持自己的特色。

Trade on busy thoroughfares is said to have dropped by 20%.

在主要街道上的生意据调查下降了20%。

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