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In this paper I introduce basic theory of Bayes' method and business risk. I give out the thought of essential solving steps, then combine with an instance, as a spinning mill which would produce two different manufactures, flower woolen cloth and gabardine. I adopt Bayes' expectation of loss method to analysis the two manufactures producing, then made a decision, figure out expectation value of the two schemes. Then select a plan which get best profit or least loss. I compute other indexes, for example, probabilities under different stations, tenderness analysis, risk degree of different plans, then compare those indexes, we make a decision.

在文中详细的介绍了贝叶斯方法的基础理论和企业风险的有关理论，给出了贝叶斯估计方法的基本解题思路和步骤，再结合具体实例，对某纺织厂公司生产两种产品，花呢和华达呢具体生产的决策问题采用贝叶斯期望损益分析法，计算出两种方案的期望值，选取收益最大或损失最小的决策方案为最优决策方案，在不同的自然状态下，再计算其他的指标，例如敏感度分析，风险度。

In order to overcome the technological difficulties encountered in the course of insulation fault diagnosis on the base of dissolved gases analysis, several kinds of mathematic models and actualized methods are brought forward to improve the reliability and veracity of fault diagnosis of transformers. The research works are shown mainly as followings:1 A modified fuzzy multi-criteria method is brought forward for insulation fault diagnosis of transformer. Furthermore, a new method for insulation fault diagnosis is proposed on the base of fuzzy multi-criteria together with rule reasoning. With fuzzy diagnosis in the method, fault reasons are filtrated and then the reasons in low probability are prohibited, Moreover, the left reasons are testified by using rule reasoning and then final concludes are drawn in much less misjudge probability and better results.2 On the base of geometry characteristics of C- partition to sample set of DGA data of transformer, a method is put forward to compute effective radius of neighbor field of a sample, number of clusters and values of initial centers. Moreover, the fuzzy C- means cluster model with adaptive weight is brought forward in the first time and then the fault classifier is designed for insulation fault diagnosis of transformer.3 According to the weakness of the degree of gray of gray incidence, a new formula to compute DGI is put forward and then incidence order criterion is ascertained. Moreover, a new DGI model for fault diagnosis is proposed according to the further analysis to relationship between fault reason and content of oil dissolved gases of transformer.

为解决在应用油中溶解气体分析方法（Dissolved Gases Analysis，简称DGA）诊断变压器内部绝缘故障时所遇到的主要技术难题，论文提出了用于提高变压器故障诊断准确性和可靠性的数学模型及实现方法，主要研究工作如下：1）提出了一种改进的变压器绝缘故障诊断模糊综合评判方法；进一步提出了将模糊综合诊断与规则推理相结合进行绝缘故障诊断的方法，该方法采用模糊推理对故障原因进行"过滤"，滤掉可能性极小的原因，然后进一步利用规则推理验证剩下的可能原因，得出最终结论，大大减少了误判比率，获得了较好的效果。2）根据以变压器DGA数据为特征量的样本空间的c-划分几何特性出发，提出了一种求取样本有效邻域半径和聚类数及聚类中心初值的方法，在此基础上，首次提出了一种自适应加权的变压器绝缘故障诊断的模糊c-均值聚类模型，并设计出故障分类器。3）针对常用灰色关联度的不足，提出了一新的灰色关联度计算公式及确定关联序的准则；并在此基础上，通过深入分析变压器发生绝缘故障时的原因与油中溶解特征气体含量的关系，建立了一种新的故障诊断灰色关联模型；通过实例分析证明，该方法能有效地诊断出变压器绝缘故障及故障部位，大大提高了诊断的准确性。

But if I want to…""Natasha, I am serious…" Natasha did not let her finish; she drew the countess's large hand to her, and kissed it on the upper side, and then on the palm, then turned it over again and began kissing it on the knuckle of the top joint of the finger, then on the space between the knuckles, then on a knuckle again, whispering:"January, February, March, April, May.""

如果我愿意……""娜塔莎，我要一本正经地说……"娜塔莎不让伯爵夫人说完，就把她的一只大手拉到自己身边来，吻吻她的手背，然后吻吻掌心，又把手翻过来，开始吻她的手指的上关节，然后吻关节之间的地方，然后又吻上关节，同时轻言细语地说："一月，二月，三月，四月，五月。""

She is not in the washroom and then stopping, because it is finally his own point of view that he cares about and not hers, and with this firmly in mind, and a light, confident step, such as you might find in the works of Bulwer-Lytton, he enters the space she occupies so prettily and, taking her by the hand, proceeds to tear off the stiff white hospital gown (but no, we cannot have that kind of pornographic merde in this majestic and high-minded sentence, which will probably end up in the Library of Congress)(that was just something that took place inside his consciousness, as he looked at her, and since we know that consciousness is always consciousness of something, she is not entirely without responsibility in the matter) so, then, taking her by the hand, he falls into the stupendous white puree of her abyss, no, I mean rather that he asks her how long it has been since her last visit, and she says a fortnight, and he shudders, and tells her that with a condition like hers (she is an immensely popular soldier, and her troops win all their battles by pretending to be forests, the enemy discovering, at the last moment, that those trees they have eaten their lunch under have eyes and swords)(which reminds me of the performance, in 1845, of Robert-Houdin, called The Fantastic Orange Tree, wherein Robert-Houdin borrowed a lady's handkerchief, rubbed it between his hands and passed it into the center of an egg, after which he passed the egg into the center of a lemon, after which he passed the lemon into the center of an orange, then pressed the orange between his hands, making it smaller and smaller, until only a powder remained, whereupon he asked for a small potted orange tree and sprinkled the powder thereupon, upon which the tree burst into blossom, the blossoms turning into oranges, the oranges turning into butterflies, and the butterflies turning into beautiful young ladies, who then married members of the audience), a condition so damaging to real-time social intercourse of any kind, the best thing she can do is give up, and lay down her arms, and he will lie down in them, and together they will permit themselves a bit of the old slap and tickle, she wearing only her Mr.

然后阻止，因为到最后那是他自己的关心的观点而不是她的，在他的脑子里根深蒂固，他自信地走了一步，这就像你也许会在布尔沃？里顿的作品中看到的一样，他进入兴高采烈地进入她占有的空间，抓住她的手，开始撕开他白色僵直的病号衣（但是我们没有在他冠冕堂皇的充满智慧的语句中发现那种带有色情的废话，那也许会在国会图书馆中绝迹）（在他的意识中有一些东西正在被替代，当他看她的时候，就如我们知道的意识始终是意识，她在这个事情中不是完全没有责任的），所以，然后抓起她的手，他掉进了她深渊的巨大白色水中，不，我想他问她自从她上回来已经多久了，她说有两个星期了，他战栗着告诉她她现在的情况（她是一个非常受欢迎的女兵，她的部队通过埋伏在森林里赢得了所有的战斗，在最后的时刻敌人发现了，那些他们吃掉他们午餐的树有了眼睛和剑）（这使我想起了一八四五年罗伯特？乌丹的演出，叫做《奇幻橘子树》，在其中罗伯特？

She is not in the washroom and then stopping, because it is finally his own point of view that he cares about and not hers, and with this firmly in mind, and a light, confident step, such as you might find in the works of Bulwer-Lytton, he enters the space she occupies so prettily and, taking her by the hand, proceeds to tear off the stiff white hospital gown (but no, we cannot h39e that kind of pornographic merde in this majestic and high-minded sentence, which will probably end up in the Library of Congress)(that was just something that took place inside his consciousness, as he looked at her, and since we know that consciousness is always consciousness of something, she is not entirely without responsibility in the matter) so, then, taking her by the hand, he falls into the stupendous white puree of her abyss, no, I mean rather that he asks her how long it has been since her last visit, and she says a fortnight, and he shudders, and tells her that with a condition like hers (she is an immensely popular soldier, and her troops win all their battles by pretending to be forests, the enemy discovering, at the last moment, that those trees they h39e eaten their lunch under h39e eyes and swords)(which reminds me of the performance, in 1845, of Robert-Houdin, called The Fantastic Orange Tree, wherein Robert-Houdin borrowed a lady's handkerchief, rubbed it between his hands and passed it into the center of an egg, after which he passed the egg into the center of a lemon, after which he passed the lemon into the center of an orange, then pressed the orange between his hands, making it 56aller and 56aller, until only a powder remained, whereupon he asked for a 56all potted orange tree and sprinkled the powder thereupon, upon which the tree burst into blossom, the blossoms turning into oranges, the oranges turning into butterflies, and the butterflies turning into beautiful young ladies, who then married members of the audience), a condition so damaging to real-time social intercourse of any kind, the best thing she can do is give up, and lay down her arms, and he will lie down in them, and together they will permit themselves a bit of the old slap and tickle, she wearing only her Mr.

然后阻止，因为到最后那是他自己的关心的观点而不是她的，在他的脑子里根深蒂固，他自信地走了一步，这就像你也许会在布尔沃？里顿的作品中看到的一样，他进入兴高采烈地进入她占有的空间，抓住她的手，开始撕开他白色僵直的病号衣（但是我们没有在他冠冕堂皇的充满智慧的语句中发现那种带有色情的废话，那也许会在国会图书馆中绝迹）（在他的意识中有一些东西正在被替代，当他看她的时候，就如我们知道的意识始终是意识，她在这个事情中不是完全没有责任的），所以，然后抓起她的手，他掉进了她深渊的巨大白色水中，不，我想他问她自从她上回来已经多久了，她说有两个星期了，他战栗着告诉她她现在的情况（她是一个非常受欢迎的女兵，她的部队通过埋伏在森林里赢得了所有的战斗，在最后的时刻敌人发现了，那些他们吃掉他们午餐的树有了眼睛和剑）（这使我想起了一八四五年罗伯特？乌丹的演出，叫做《奇幻橘子树》，在其中罗伯特？

If the input password is correct, then from P3.0 output unblanking signal, if the input password is not correct, then from P3.1 output password rub-out signal, if continual three times inputs the password is wrong, then from P3.2 output alarm, once the output alarm, after must wait for relieves reports to the police only then unlocks.

如果输入密码正确，则从P3.0输出开锁信号，如果输入密码不正确，则从P3.1输出密码错误信号，如果连续三次输入的密码均是错的，则从P3.2输出报警信号，一旦输出报警信号，就必须等待解除报警后方可重新开锁

Take Onion and Garlic and gently sweat in pan with no oil, then add Thyme, 60gkidney bean, 60gChix pea, 60gwhite bean and white wine, bring to boil then add water and chicken powder, again bring to a boil then add green peas and cream, bring to a boil, then season and add spinach.

将洋葱大蒜放入无油的锅里稍微干煸，然后加入法香，60克鸡腰豆，60克鸡嘴豆，60克白豆和白酒，煮，然后加水和鸡精，再次煮，而后加入青豆和奶油，继续煮，然后调味并加入菠菜。

I got the heart first and then this thing on my stomach above my tiny little pecker. Bam's got the same . Then after that I got the sleeve, then my neck , then legs.

我第个纹的是一个心形；然后纹了这个东西——就位于我小 pecker 之上的腹部， Bam 也纹了一个同样的；在那之后是左手臂，然后是脖子，然后是腿部。

We have to completely change the previous order must be ready to move on the school field to break the conventional PK up 2 if not a direct one to eight locked him up and then directly to Yang Jian + YUE +欲擒故纵+ million一阳指+ static shadow Shen Xue-Yong Choi,+ blue Guan (Why should we put this last because the snow has a chance of sealing a hole shut you hole you made) on this almost four seconds if you are lucky the snow over the hole then sealed Congratulations you because you have already won the war 60 percent of the seal if there is no point you would present him with a hidden weapon and then let the points title, such as pieces of a scamper up in the coming months Sanyang kai tai closed at this time point almost did not state the business Jian Yang is also the state of almost 15 seconds to less then one Ze Jian-lun up on OK after you select what he skills on the line you up for the OK to this you have won 80% of you are not called Yang Jian He wasted (a little trick if you do not have confidence in their own operations should not be used when you stealth stealth opponent immediately hidden stealth so he did not you or punches you, you can how much you a few of his) if the two sides blood depends on many things on their own time for the operation of more than two minutes after you beat him you mean you are invincible Blue啦short or very important operation to operate a bad person it up!!

我们要彻底的改变以前的出招顺序要勇于打破常规关于校场PK 上去2话不说直接一个八门上去先锁住他然后就直接上商阳剑+欲擒故纵+万岳+一阳指+静影沉璧+雪拥蓝关（为什么要最后一个放呢因为雪拥有一定的几率封穴封住穴你就发啦）这时差不多就4秒啦要是运气好雪拥封住了穴那就恭喜你啦因为这场战争你已经赢了60%啦如果没有封住穴的话现在就用暗器封他的穴吧然后一个等衔枚疾走上去在来个三阳开泰这时封穴状态也差不多没了商阳剑的15秒状态也差不多到了这时一个少泽剑抡上去就OK啦以后就有啥技能往上抡就行啦进行到这这场OK你就已经赢了80%啦商阳剑也没叫他白白浪费掉（一个小计谋如果你对自己的操作没信心就不要用先用隐身对手隐身时候你马上就隐这样的话他隐身没啦你还是隐的你就可以多大他几下啦）如果双方血都多的话就要靠自己的操作多争取时间啦 2分钟后你一打他蓝你就等于无敌啦总之操作还是很重要操作不好的人努力吧！！

You came when I was happy in your sunshine I grew to love you more each passing day Before too long I built my world around you And I prayed you'd love enough of me to stay If you love me let me know If you don't then let me go I can't take another minute Of a day without you in it If you love me let it be If you don't then set me free Take the chains away That keep me loving you The arms that open wide to hold me closer The hands that run their fingers through my hair The smile that says "hello, it's good to see you" Anytime I turn around to find you there It's this and so much more that make me love you What else can I do to make you see You know you have whatever's mine to give you But a love affair for one can never be If you love me let me know If you don't then let me go I can't take another minute Of a day without you in it If you love me let it be If you don't then set me free Take the chains away That keep me loving you Take the chains away That keep me loving you Loving you

有一天，主人出门去了，叫它照顾孩子。他到了别的乡村，因遇大雪，当日不能回来。第二天才赶回家，狗立即闻声出来迎接主人。他把房门开一看，到处是血，抬头一望，床上也是血，孩子不见了，狗在身边，满口也是血，主人发现这种情形，以为狗性发作，把孩子吃掉了，大怒之下，拿起刀来向著狗头一劈，把狗杀死了。之後，忽然听到孩子的声音，又见他从床下爬了出来，於是抱起孩子；虽然身上有血，但并未受伤。他很奇怪，不知究竟是怎么一回事，再看看狗身，腿上的肉没有了，旁边有一只狼，口里还咬著狗的肉；狗救了小主人，却被主人误杀了，这真是天下最令人惊奇的误会。注：误会的事，是人往往在不了解、无理智、无耐心、缺少思考、未能多方体谅对方，反省自己，感情极为冲动的情况之下所发生。

As of Tuesday, Google's results were still censored in China.

截至周二，谷歌的搜索结果仍受中国审查。

In order to make the positive action increase and negative one decrease, the sub-forces of the social factors must be adjusted to form a centripetal force.

在这一过程中，人的主体性发挥是社会有机体健康发展的灵魂。