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Objective:to study the epidemiologic characteristic of mortality of malignant tumors in zhongshan city.method:selecting the investigated datum of mortality of malignant tumor in zhongshan city as sample uses sas statistics software to analyse and forecast the mortality by time series.results:morlality of male malignant tumor and both male and female malignant tumour showed the risen trend from 1970 to 1989.the trend will be kept in future.both will be separately risen to 121.05/105 and 83.92/105 in 2 000.mortality of female malignant tumour will be kept in about 43.59/105 in 2000.couclusion:mortality of both male and female malignant tumor takes on the trend of diffirent change.the male showed risen trend;the female showed the fluctuation of non-trend random.rising mortality of malignant tumor greatly threaden the crowd health.

目的:研究中山市恶性肿瘤死亡率的流行学特点,为制定防治计划提供依据。方法:以中山市恶性肿瘤死亡率调查资料为样本,应用sas统计分析软件对恶性肿瘤死亡率进行时间序列分析与预测。结果:1970~1989年男性恶性肿瘤死亡率和男女合计恶性肿瘤死亡率均呈现上升趋势且有继续保持的趋势。到2000年将分别上升为121.05/10万和83.92/10万左右;女性恶性肿瘤死亡率呈现无趋势的随机波动且将继续保持下去,到2000年保持在43.59/10万左右。结论:中山市男女恶性肿瘤死亡率呈不同变化趋势,男性恶性肿瘤死亡率呈现上升的趋势,女性恶性肿瘤死亡率呈现无趋势的随机波动。恶性肿瘤死亡率的上升对人群的健康构成重大威胁。

Essay discusses the development trends of service trade in the process of economic globalization, include acceleration trend,high technology trend,unbalancing trend,structural optimizing trend and trade barrier enshrouding trend.

全球化时代服务贸易的发展趋势——兼论我国服务贸易的发展思路论文全球化,服务贸易的趋势主要有五个方面,即发展加速化、高化、非平衡化、结构优化和贸易壁垒的隐蔽化。

The research of this paper includes three parts: the first, according to the statistical figures about the cargo transport in recent years, it analyzes cargo transport structure and the changing law and the internal reason of cargo transport. At the same time it analyzes and calculates the change of the arriving ships" structure for a systematic and full understand of the transport demands. The second, it make a scientific forecast of the port"s future cargo capacity making use of the grey forecast system, which provides scientific basis for medium-long term development plan of the ports cargo handling capacity. It also makes some analysis and research for medium-long term development future of Zhangjiagang port in use of physical unit analising technique, looks for the scattered no-order and no-system reason of medium-long term development. On the basis of summarizing their experience, the article adopts physical unit model to make a comprehensive judgement. It has distinctive opinion of value in accord with scientific principles for medium-long term development of Zhangjiagang port.

本文研究的工作主要分三个部分:第一,根据张家港近年来有关货物运输的一些统计数据,对货物运输的结构和规模演变的规律及内在原因作一剖析,同时对到港船舶的结构变化进行预测,以求对运输需求有一个系统全面的了解;第二,应用灰色预测系统对张家港港未来港口货运吞吐量进行科学预测,为张家港港货物装卸能力规划提供科学依据;应用物元分析技术对张家港港口的未来发展前景作出一定程度的分析、研究,找出张家港港口未来发展规划的零散无序、不成系统的因素,总结前人经验的基础上采用综合评判物元模型进行评判,在预测港口未来发展规划是否科学实际上具有独到见解。

By comparison of long-term exposure with long-term immersion, the release amount of ammonium, nitrite, nitrate and dissolved phosphorus into the overlying waters from the sediments were increased during the reflooding after long-term dessication, reflecting that long-term exposure stimulated sediments as a releasing source of nutrient and accelerated the biogeochemical cycle of nutrient in the tidal flat ecosystem.

通过对比分析发现,长期暴露之后能够增加沉积物向上覆水体释放NH〓-N、NO〓-N、NO〓-N和TDP,显示了长期暴露加剧了沉积物作为营养盐的源效应,并且加速了潮滩生态系统内营养盐的生物地球化学循环过程。

Firstly, all the terms concerned are split up into basic term elements-termels, then eight aspects of quantificational indexes are given: errors-in-printing ratio,'inconsistent/uncanonical spelling' ratio,'unnecessary one-many/many-one correspondence' ratio,'inequivalent term' ratio,'discrepant interdisciplinary term' ratio,'unconformable-to-GB term' ratio,'incomplete/redundant term' ratio, and overall 'term worthy of revision/discussion' ratio.

其基本方法,一是从名词集中拆分出基础要素-名词元;二是提出八项量化指标:印误率,英语拼写不一致与不规范率,非必要的一多与多一对应率,英汉名词不对等率,与交叉学科名词有异率,与国标定名不符率,收词欠完备与冗余率及总体值得修榷率。

The study has shown:(1) With increasing sediment depth and the woody giblets, the total organic carbon, the extraction of benzene , the total humic acids and the unhydrolyte are enhanced, while the hydrolyte is decreasing.(2) According to the GC-MS analysis, n-alkane,n-alkan-2-ones and n-alkanones are composed mainly of long-chains,such a result is thought to be characteristic of a herbaceous input from 2300a.B.P. n-alkanones exist in the samples may be considered as the evidence of microorganisms activity.(3) It is showed that the lipids is more sensitive to the climate change than the floristic. The proxy of the pollen spore of the peat stratum is different from the normal environment proxy. It is one of the main reasons that the sensitivity difference of the bog vegetation reacting to the climate isn't accordant with the log of the fat molecule fossil and biology fossil.(4) The transformation of the peat organic carbon is under the influence of temperature,acidity,organic material constituting, etc, and it showed the up-trend with the depth. In the short-term scale, the conversion of the peat organic carbon is effected by seasonal water,regional climate and vegetations; while in the long-term scale, it is controlled mainly by the climate.(5) According to the comparing the orderliness of organic compound,vegetation giblets with the depth to the characteristics of the peat molecule fossil with the section, in the development of this peatmire, 1500a B.P(210cm)is regard as the borderline of the late Holocene, the keynote of the front period is warm with several cold fluctuations, and the trend of the back period is dry and cold although there were several fluctuations.

研究表明:(1)随深度的增高及植物残体中木本残体的增多,总有机碳、苯萃取物、总腐植酸、不被水解物含量逐渐增高,而易水解物含量减少;(2)GC- MS分析显示,正构烷烃,直链烷基2-酮和正烷醇均以长链组分为主,揭示了该泥炭柱剖面2347a.B.P的母源输入以草本植物为主;甲基酮类和短链正烷醇的存在是微生物活性很大的生物证据;(3)通过有机分子标志物与孢粉、植物残体等指标的对比研究表明:脂类化合物对气候变化的反映要比植物种灵敏得多,不同沼泽植物对气候变化的敏感性的差异是脂类分子化石记录与生物大化石结果很难一致的主要原因之一;(4)泥炭有机碳的转化受到温度、酸度、有机物质组成等很多因素的影响,短时间尺度,泥炭有机碳的转化受季节性降水、地方气候和植被等因素的影响;长时间尺度,泥炭地有机碳的转化,受气候条件控制;(5)总结泥炭分子化石特征、泥炭有机质各组分含量及植物残体组成随深度的变异规律,分析结果显示该泥炭地层形成过程中,1500a B.P(210cm)可作为划分前后晚全新世的界线,前期的基调是气候偏暖,但又有几次偏干冷气候的反复,后期气候以干冷为主,其间虽有几次上升波动,但整体趋势不变。

Subsequently, through the dynamic mechanisms of investment, the endogenesis of price, consideration of the resource constraints and the alternativity between productive factors, this paper completed the historic simulation to update key data, then built the closure criteria for baseline simulation, combined the dynamic recursive methord, finally assessed the long-term impact for member states in terms of policy changes under 4 scenarios. Different to the analysis from perspective of comparative static, the assessment of long-term economic impact was started from the macroeconomic point of view and import and export trade to reflect the relationship between short-term influence and long-term impact under 4 kinds of possible policy changes.

首先从CGE模型传统的比较静态的框架下,就GDP、贸易规模、双边贸易、贸易结构及产出水平、国民福利等方面来阐释各政策情景产生的冲击效果;然后通过投资动态机制与价格的内生化,考虑资源限制及生产要素间的替代性,以逐年递归动态求解方式,分国别从宏观经济、进出口贸易角度出发,对于成员国在政策变动后可能产生的远期影响进一步做出评估,以此来反映各种可能的政策变动对成员国经济的短期影响与长期影响之间的关系。

At present, land prices of gold accounted for 20%~ 30%, this part of the decline in the amount of housing prices, will impact the market to bid up housing prices fall, real estate prices are adjusted according to demand, the final price or return to the original location, The owners bought the house in future would also like to pay property tax each year, resulting in dark or drop out, so he personally thought that this method more difficult to implement, the only advantage of government departments have a long-term stability of the land transfer income, the current land fewer and fewer resources, long-term gains must be better than a one-time income, and land-use period are generally more than 50 years, so turnover is very long, long-term cycle of charges on the comparative advantage of government departments.

目前,土地价格的黄金占20 % 30 %,这部分减少的数额,即住房价格,将影响市场抬高房价下跌,房地产价格是按照需求,最终价格还是回到原来的位置,业主买的房子今后还要财产税,每年造成黑暗或辍学,所以他个人认为,这种方法更加难以实施,只有利用政府部门一个长期稳定的土地转让收入,目前土地资源越来越少,长期收益,必须优于一次性收入,土地使用期限一般都超过50年,因此,营业额是很长的长期周期费用的比较优势的政府部门。

Through assessment, it can be concluded that the water quality in Shuimo river valley of Urumqi was worse; the water quality did not improve in last three years, and this trend was not stable either in space or in time; the water quality was best in low water period but it's worse in flush water period and slack water period; in space the water quality in Tangcichangquan section was best , it's the second place in Qifangqiao section and Lianfengqiao section while it's worst in Miquanqiao section. According to the analysis, the trend of the water quality change of Shuimo river valley of the major pollutants, the method of Spearman was used in 1996 to 2002. It concluded, the pollutants did not have the remarkable trend of change in Tangcichangquan section,but BOD5 had very prominent raising trend in Qifangqiao section, so did BOD5, petroleum, and ammoniac nitrogen in Lianfengqiao, DO in Miquanqiao section in seven years.

根据秩相关系数法对水磨河流域1996 -2002 年主要污染物变化趋势分析,搪瓷厂泉断面作为流域的源头,各污染物七年里没有显著的上升或下降趋势;七纺桥断面的五日生化需氧量在七年中有很显著的升高趋势;联丰桥断面的五日生化需氧量、氨氮、石油类在七年里都有非常显著的升高趋势; DO 在米泉桥断面七年里也有非常显著的升高趋势,后三个断面接受了沿岸工矿企业的生产废水和周边居民的生活污水,水质明显变差,每个断面污染源不同,占主导地位的污染物也有差异。

The temperature trend rate at Kushka station, which has the lowest latitude, is 0.018℃/a, and that at the other four stations is less than 0.01℃/a. The warming trend at Kushka, Almaty, and Tomsk stations, which are at relatively low latitudes, is significant, and it changed abruptly during the period from the l970s to the l980s. The rise of the minimum temperature is more obvious than that of the maximum temperature, and the warming phenomenon at Kushka station is the most significant. The precipitation trend rate at the five stations is about 0.09% per year, and the trend is not significant.

纬度最低的库什卡站气温倾向率为0.018℃/a,其他4站均小于0.01℃/a,纬度相对较低的库什卡、阿拉木图、托木斯克3站的升温趋势显著,且在20世纪70~80年代发生突变升温;年最低气温比年最高气温的升高现象明显,且纬度最低的库什卡站的升温现象最显著。5个站的降水量倾向率约0.09%/a,但增湿的趋势不显著。

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You can snipe the second and third union leaders from this position.

您可以鹬第二和第三工会领袖从这一立场出发。

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