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It would be fallacious, however, to conclude from this single-year result that the super-cat business is a wonderful one, or even a satisfactory one. A simple example will illustrate the fallacy: Suppose there is an event that occurs 25 times in every century. If you annually give 5-for-1 odds against its occurrence that year, you will have many more winning years than losers. Indeed, you may go a straight six, seven or more years without loss. You also will eventually go broke.

这样很容易会产生错觉，并做出单一年度霹雳猫的成绩是相当不错且令人满意的一年，一个简单的例子足以说明一切，假设每个世纪平均都会发生25次重大的意外事件，而你每年都以以一赔五的比率赌它今年不会发生，则你赌对的年份可能远比赌错的年份多出许多，甚至你有可能连续赌对六年、七年，甚至是更多年，但我必须说，不管怎样，到最后你一定会以破产作为结局。

It would be fallacious, however, to conclude from this single-year result that the super-cat business is a wonderful one, or even a satisfactory one. A simple example will illustrate the fallacy: Suppose there is an event that occurs 25 times in every century. If you annually give 5-for-1 odds against its occurrence that year, you will have many more winning years than losers. Indeed, you may go a straight six, seven or more years without loss. You also will eventually go broke. At Berkshire, we naturally believe we are obtaining adequate premiums and giving more like 3 1/2-for-1 odds.

伯克希尔本身很适合从事霹雳猫保险的业务，我们有业界最优秀的经理人 Ajit Jain，此外从事这行需要相当雄厚的资金实力，在这点我们公司的净值大概是其他主要竞争对手的 10 到 20 倍，对大部分的保险业务而言，背后所拥有的资源还不是那么地重要，一家保险公司可以很轻易地就把它所承担的风险分散出去，若有必要，也可以降低险种集中度以减低风险，但是对霹雳猫保险这种特殊的保险就没有办法这样子做，所以其它的竞争同业只能被迫降低理赔的上限来因应，而要是他们胆敢承担更高的风险，则一个超大型的意外灾害或是连续发生几个较小型的灾害，就有可能让他们粉身碎骨。

Those who go with the tide will prosper , and those who go against it will perish .

我已尽我最大的努力把老师的信息传达给你，并花费大量的精力和时间才把老师画的每篇课文整理出来，能否通过就看你自己的能力了。

Many of them had volunteered out of idealistic motives for the work, some of them had been sent out under church auspices and received only thirty dollars a month, so it was doubly disillusioning to them to see trainloads of food that were meant to go to China's starving peasants go one thousand miles into the interior and then come one thousand miles back again by truck and boat to be sold by the military on the black market.

他们当中很多人是出于高尚的动机志愿参加这项工作的，有些人是由教会派出的，每月只拿三十美元的工资，因此当他们看到，一列车一列车的粮食经过一千英里的路程运到内地，本来是为救济中国饥饿的农民用的，岂料军人们又把这些粮食用车载船运经过一千英里倒运回来，在黑市上售卖时，他们倍加感到痛心疾首。

Qq2009 sp5下载水,完毕.The love Song Of J.Alfred Prufrock By T.S.Eliot Let us go then,you and I,When the evening is spread out against the sky Like apatient etherized upon atable;Let us go,through certain half-deserted streets,The muttering retreats Of restless nights in one-night cheap hotels And sawdust restaurants with oyster-shells:Streets that follow like atedious argument Of insidious intent To lead you to an overwhelming question.Oh,do not ask,What is it?

参考网上翻译如下：那么我们走吧，你我两个人，正当朝天空慢慢铺展着黄昏好似病人麻醉在手术桌上；我们走吧，穿过一些半清冷的街，那儿休憩的场所正人声喋喋；有夜夜不宁的下等歇夜旅店和满地蚌壳的铺锯末的饭馆；街连着街，好象一场讨厌的争议带着阴好看的qq头像险的意图要把你引向一个重大的问题…唉，不要问，那是什么？

Gao Chunhui of thunder army incorporate into one's own forces also cannot be a success, more is the feeling does not follow those who wade to go up must not do it with, although won time, but caused harm to both sides, also do not have what have what obverse side to golden hill brand to promote. 2000, lei Jun evicts Gao Chunhui outstanding, transition does electronic business affairs, I go doing interview, because exorbitant Chun Hui reports for many times before me, more or less to know a few inside information, lei Jun sees forgive does not pass, adopted circuitous strategy to give me the answer: Some matters still cannot say now, I say with you again after a year.

雷军收编高春辉也不能算是成功，更多是感觉跟不上趟的不得以而为之，虽然赢得了时间，但对双方都造成了伤害，也没对金山品牌有什么正面的促进。2000年，雷军把高春辉赶出卓越，转型做电子商务，我去做采访，由于我之前多次报道过高春辉，多少知道一些内情，雷军见饶不过，采取了迂回策略给我回答：有些事情现在还不能说，一年后我再和你说吧。

It is better to go to the house of mourning than to go to the house of feasting

2到有丧事的家去胜过到有宴会的家；因为活着的人应该常常提醒自己，死亡在等着每一个人。

One Of Us They passed me by, all of those great romances You were, I felt, robbing me of my rightful chances My picture clear, everything seemed so easy And so I dealt you the blow One of us had to go Now it's different, I want you to know One of us is crying One of us is lying In her lonely bed Staring at the ceiling Wishing she was somewhere else instead One of us is lonely One of us is only Waiting for a call Sorry for herself, feeling stupid feeling small Wishing she had never left at all I saw myself as a concealed attraction I felt you kept me away from the heat and the action Just like a child, stubborn and misconceiving That's how I started the show One of us had to go Now I've changed and I want you to know One of us is crying One of us is lying In her lonely bed Staring at the ceiling Wishing she was somewhere else instead One of us is lonely One of us is only Waiting for a call Sorry for herself, feeling stupid feeling small Wishing she had never left at all Never left at all Staring at the ceiling Wishing she was somewhere else instead One of us is lonely One of us is only Waiting for a call

我们其中之一他们让我通过，所有那些重大的浪漫史我感觉，你是剥夺我的公正机会我的画很清除，一切看起来这样容易的所以我给予你打击我们其中一个必须走我想要你知道，现在已经不同了我们其中一个在哭泣我们其中一个在说谎在她孤独的床凝视天花板希望她倒是在别的地方我们其中一个是孤独的我们其中一个只是等侯一个电话对自己感到遗憾，觉得愚蠢觉得渺小希望她没有完全离去我把我自己视作一个被隐藏的吸引我觉得你离开热度和行动的我就像一个孩子一样，顽固和误解那就是如何我开始展览会我们其中一个必须去现在我改变了想法，我想要你知道我们其中一个在哭泣我们其中一个在说谎在她的孤独的床凝视天花板希望她倒是在别的地方我们其中一个是孤独的我们其中一个只是等侯一个电话对自己感到遗憾，觉得愚蠢觉得渺小希望她没有完全离去了没有完全离去凝视天花板希望她倒是在别的地方我们其中一个是孤独的我们其中一个只是等侯一个电话

"Those are fictitious moneys, drop drop go up it is very normal to go up."

&那些都是虚拟的货币，跌跌涨涨都很正常。&

More and more precocious children, then they will increasingly have their own ideas, but also more and more parents do not want to hear you preach, then, it is better, we from the beginning to tell them how to walk, we began to let go of their own, We watched them when necessary to render them assistance hand, perhaps the beginning, they would throw a small fall, but the future of life on the road and go astray, fall over the cliff together, these磕磕绊绊also a small fall算得了What does?

孩子越来越早熟，那么他们就会越来越有自己的主意，也越来越不想听你家长的说教，那么，不如，我们从开始就告诉他们怎么走，我们开始就让他们自己走，我们看着他们，必要的时候伸手扶他们一把，也许开始的时候，他们会摔小跟头，但是和将来人生路上走上歧途，摔下悬崖比起来，这几个磕磕绊绊的小跟头又算得了什么呢？

But we don't care about Battlegrounds.

但我们并不在乎沙场中的显露。

Ah! don't mention it, the butcher's shop is a horror.

啊！不用提了。提到肉，真是糟透了。