查询词典 forecasting theory

Probability: Studies on the emerged accident probability of major hazard carrying the Markow process; Severity: By applying the grey system theory , on the base of the same kinds of accident-economy cost, establishes self-adapting GM (1,1) forecasting model and the model with the residual error being amended in a bid to calculate accident-economy cost; Safety management: Establishes the dynamic comprehensive analytical method on major hazard and safety management of the major hazard by applying the grey system theory and fuzzy math theory.

其次，针对重大危险源原有的二维评价方法所存在的局限性，建立了以可能性、严重性、安全管理水平为三维矢量的评价方法，并对这三个矢量进行了定量计算：可能性：运用马尔可夫过程计算了重大危险源发生事故的概率；严重性：运用灰色系统理论，根据已有的同类事故经济损失的统计资料，建立自适应性GM(1，1)模型及残差修正的模型，预测重大危险源发生事故的经济损失；安全管理水平：运用模糊数学理论和灰色系统理论，建立了重大危险源安全管理水平动态综合分析法。

Aiming at forecasting the torpedo acoustic homing range for actual targets under real water conditions, this paper summarizes the typical water conditions in different sea spaces and seasons, presents a forecast method of torpedo acoustic homing range, and establishes a transmission loss forecast model based on the ray acoustic theory and a reverberation level forecast model based on the cell scattering model.

针对真实水文条件下鱼雷声自导对实际目标的作用距离预报问题，总结了不同海域、不同季节的典型水文条件，提出了鱼雷声自导作用距离预报方法，以射线声学理论为基础建立了传播损失预报模型，以单元散射模型为基础建立了混响级预报模型。

The article deals with an application of the method of forecasting calamity by use of the theory of time series analysis.

介绍时间序列分析的应用，并综合运用时间序列分析对辽宁朝阳地区干旱年份进行预测。

A unified linear fusion model for information fusion estimation is proposed,and it can describe varied information including measuring information,apriority information,forecasting data and estimation information,and it lays a foundation for the theory frame of information fusion estimation.

提出信息融合估计的统一线性融合模型，使测量信息、先验信息、预测信息以及状态估计信息等均可用统一融合模型进行描述，为建立信息融合估计的理论框架奠定了基础。

The contributions of this dissertation are as follows.(1) It firstly applies the fife cycle theory to make typology and research for Chinese market system;(2) It finds the "Six curves constitute the throat" phenomena of Chinese household consumption structure macro-indicator, and thus contribute to structural theory literature;(3) It explanatorily forecasts Chinese household consumption trend by firstly using worst orbit forecasting method of reverse thinking;(4) It firstly proposes the concept of "educational urbanization development", and thus provide new angle to research urbanization in China;(5) It firstly proposes the hypothesis of "Deceleration Effect" of credit consumption on gini coefficient, i.e., income gaps can be filled by credit consumption.

本文创新之处在于：首次运用生命周期理论对中国市场经济体制进行划分和研究；发现了中国居民消费结构广义指标的"六线呈咽"现象，为结构理论研究增添了新的内容；首次逆向思维的运用最差运行轨迹预测方法，探索性的进行中国居民消费结构趋势预测；首次提出"教育型城市化发展的概念"，为研究中国城市化，提供了新的思路；首次提出信贷消费对基尼系数"熨平效用"的假设，即收入水平带来的差距可以用信贷消费的方式"熨平"。

A hybrid model of short-term load forecasting based on chaotic theory, correlation and neural networks is presented in this paper. Firstly, reconstruct attractors in phase spaces using chaotic theory, Secondly fit the attractor's evolvement using BP neural networks, because selecting neural network's input training data using Euclid distance and correlation, improve neural network's associative memory and ratiocinative ability, can better fit the attractor's evolvement.

提出一种将混沌理论、关联度和神经网络相结合的短期负荷预测模型，首先利用混沌理论重构负荷时间序列的相空间吸引子，然后用BP 神经网络来拟合空间吸引子的演化，由于使用空间欧氏距离和关联度联合来选取神经网络的训练样本，这样就提高了神经网络对负荷序列混沌特性的联想和泛化推理能力，能够更好的拟合吸引子的演化。

Based on the chaotic characteristic of time series of power loads and combining the phase space reconstruction theory of chaotic time series and regression theory of supporting vector machines, a short-term load forecasting model based on chaotic characteristic of loads and least squares SVM is built.

以负荷时间序列的混沌特性为基础，结合混沌时间序列的相空间重构理论和支持向量机的回归理论建立了一种基于负荷混沌特性和最小二乘支持向量机的短期负荷预测模型。

Secondly, according to the theory of retrieving model using time series and the self-memorization principle, the grey self-memory model based on grey system theory and phase space self-memory model established using chaotic theory are put forward, and the two kinds of models are applied to the analogy and forecasting of hydrologic time series, and the application field of the self-memory model is further expanded from extent and profundity.

更进一步，根据时间序列反演建模基本理论和系统自记忆性基本原理，提出了基于灰色系统理论的灰色自记忆预报模型和基于混沌理论的相空间自记忆预报模型，并应用于水文时间序列的模拟与预测，从广度和深度上更加拓广了自记忆模型的应用范围。

The extraordinary activity of taphrogenic differential settlement of late caused great damage and economy loss to urban building, it will greatly jeopard the tunnel engineering recently . Two-dimension limited system theory and simulation modeling to two-dimension limited system theory for Xi'an taphrogenic differential settlement was set up based on real and forecasting data near umpty years.

西安地裂差异沉降近期超常活动，给城市建设造成了严重的经济损失和危害，并对将要建设的地铁工程危害极大，根据近几十年来的实测和预测资料，通过建立二维有限元模型和地裂差异沉降的二维有限元仿真模拟，得出 2 0 0 5年到 2 0 5 0年地裂差异沉降累积值为 84.7m m，水平位移量为 3 6.3 mm。

While many theories concerning damage forecasting were put foreword, a different model of damage forecasting based on fuzzy probability will be presented in this paper. And it is reasonable to describe a variable like weight coefficient with fuzzy theory. In the end, the validity of the model is demonstrated well in the applications of one-storied brick bent frame column factories, one-storied reinforced concrete column factories, multistory masonry buildings.

国内外不少专家学者或研究单位先后提出了各种震害预测方法，本文在此基础上，利用模糊理论，提出了模糊概率的震害预测模型，其模型能够把两类不确定性(一类是随机上的，另一类是模糊上的)有机结合起来，而且对于权重这样一个充满着模糊性的变量，用模糊语言来处理是非常合理的；并应用于对单层砖排架柱厂房、单层钢筋混凝土柱厂房以及多层砖房的震害预测，实践证明此方法是比较精确的。

In the United States, chronic alcoholism and hepatitis C are the most common ones.

在美国，慢性酒精中毒，肝炎是最常见的。

If you have any questions, you can contact me anytime.

如果有任何问题，你可以随时联系我。