查询词典 forecasting theory

Based on consider hereinbefore, this dissertation discusses several aspects on the problem of the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources as follows:①reviewed entirely the origin and evolvement of the concept "sustainable development", stated and commented the study status in queue on"sustainable development"around national and international range, thorough discussed the science connotation about the concept "sustainable development";②looked back and commented across-the aboard some furthest basic concept and proposition related to groundwater resources, put forward self opinions on a few existent mistake points of view and chaos understandings;③expatiated entirely on the content and meaning of the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, contrast with the traditional methods of groundwater resources calculation and evaluation, combined example to show the application of this theory;④thorough analyzed the difficult and complexity to forecast the groundwater resources, fully stated the traditional methods of groundwater resources forecasting, pointed out the characteristic and applying condition of these forecasting method, introduced the main ideas and methods of wavelet analysis developed recently, and the MATLAB software be known as the fifths era computer language, and its accessory wavelet analysis toolbox, applied these methods and tools to analyze the groundwater dynamic curve, adopted the B-J method and Morte-Carlo method, combined with the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, discussed the new view on the forecast of groundwater resources;⑤synthetically analyzed the characteristics and limitations of the present all kind of groundwater manage model, combined mathematical programming, mathematical statistics, random process and the theory of variation system of groundwater resources on the unite optimum attempter of surface water and groundwater, emphasized how to make the model more nicety, more simple, more practicality;⑥analyzed the inside condition and outside condition to assure the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources, the inside conditions are the follows: correct resources idea, scientific methods of resources calculation and evaluation, credible forecast methods of resources, exercisable measures of resources management, the outside conditions are the follows: the development idea of high layer, the transform of manage system, the matched policy and rule of law, the adjusted of economy lever, the improve of cultural diathesis, the boosting up of water-saving consciousness and detail measures, the control of population rising, the prevention and cure of water pollute, the renew and rebuild of ecology;⑦scan the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources from the high level of metagalaxy, earth system science, and philosophy;⑧point out the more directions on groundwater resources.

它将为制定水资源的可持续发展目标和战略决策提供科学依据，为制定社会、经济可持续发展战略提供理论基础。基于以上考虑，论文主要从以下几方面对地下水资源可持续开发问题进行了比较深入的探讨：①全面回顾了&可持续发展&概念的由来与演变，对国内外&可持续发展&的研究现状进行了述评，并对&可持续发展&概念的科学内涵进行了深入探讨；②对涉及地下水资源的一些最基本的概念和命题进行了全面的回顾和评述，对目前仍然存在的一些错误观点和混乱认识提出了自己的见解；③全面阐述了地下水资源变值系统理论的内容和意义，并与传统的地下水资源计算评价方法进行了对比分析，结合实例具体说明了方法的应用；④深入分析了地下水资源预测预报工作的极端重要性和复杂性，对传统的地下水资源动态预测方法进行了全面的评述，指出了各类预测预报方法的特点及适用条件，对最近二十多年刚发展起来的小波分析技术的主要思想和方法及其应用范围，以及号称第五代计算机语言的MATLAB软件和附带的小波分析工具箱进行了介绍，并应用于地下水动态过程线的分析，采用时间序列中的B-J法，蒙特卡罗方法，与地下水资源变值系统理论相结合，探讨了地下水动态资料分析和地下水资源预测预报的新思路；⑤综合分析了现今各类地下水管理模型的特点及缺陷，将数学规划、数理统计、随机过程等与地下水变值系统理论相结合进行地表水地下水或多水源的联合优化调度，使模型更准确、更实用；⑥对保证地下水资源可持续开发的内部条件和外部条件进行了分析，内部条件主要是正确的资源观，科学的资源计算与评价方法，可靠的资源预测预报技术，可操作的资源管理措施，外部条件主要是高层发展思路、管理体制的变革、配套的政策法规、经济杠杆的调节、人文素质的提高、节水意识的增强及具体节水措施、人口增长的控制、水体污染的防治、生态的恢复和重建等；⑦从宇宙科学、地球系统科学及哲学的高度审视地下水资源的可持续开发；⑧指出了地下水资源可持续开发的进一步研究方向。

This paper introduces the significance of the interactive correct technology applied to forecasting hydrograph, and the process-fit-smoothness and the cubic interpolation technology. Based on the technology above, it can be realized to correct the forecasting hydrograph interactively in the form of elastic which is applied to the flood forecasting system.

分析了水文预报过程交互式修正技术在洪水预报工作中的重要性，介绍了过程拟合平滑技术和样条插值技术，基于此基础上研究实现了以橡皮筋形式交互式修正水文预报过程的技术，并应用于洪水预报系统中。

Conventionally the electric load forecasting can hardly attain a result whose accuracy meets what's required. A short-term load forecasting model is therefore developed to solve the problem, based on the process neural network of which the input is the function of time and the high forecasting accuracy is available. Describes the structure of the model, discrete data fitting method by the expansion of function orthogonal basis and learning algorithm.

针对目前常用方法在解决负荷预测问题时，结果往往难以达到工程要求精度的现状，利用过程神经网络输入为时间函数以及预测精度高的特点，建立了基于过程神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测模型；给出了模型的结构，基于函数正交基展开的离散数据拟合方法以及模型的学习算法。

Furthermore, how to apply the model efficiently in practice is deeply discussed. As the variance produced by the forecasting model as concerned, the real-time revised method of hydrological forecasting is highlighted. Next arranged, the multi-stratum recursive prediction model is put forward to forecast the error series that is a dynamic system. Later, an error selfregressive multi-stratum recursive prediction model is set up as well as a current algorithm offered. Finally, the difference collated model and the gloss control method, which are devoted to updating the mid-long term hydrological forecasting during the meditate period, are put forward.

在综合评述中长期水文预报现有方法和模型的基础上，采用时间序列分析方法，建立中长期水文预报的时间序列组合模型，并对模型如何在实际中有效应用作了较为深入的探讨；针对模型预报所产生的误差，又重点研究了水文预报实时修正方法：提出了采用多层递阶预报方法对误差序列这一动态系统进行预报，建立了误差自回归多层递阶预报模型，并提出了较为通用的解算方法；给出了水文中长期预报中期修正的残差相关模型和总量控制方法。

Experiments stipulate that the forecasting effect and rousting of the hybrid forecasting model is superior to the traditional forecasting model.

实验表明，该综合预测模型预测效果与稳定性优于传统预测模型。

Experiments based on DuJiangyan Min-jiang River prove that the forecasting effect and rousting of the hybrid forecasting model is superior to traditional forecasting models.

以都江堰岷江来水数据为原始数据进行实际预测，实验证明，这种组合模型的预测效果优于传统预测模型。

Combination forecasting colligates information of all kinds of forecasting method,so this method avoids losing information in single forecasting model and reduces randomcity,improves the precision of predication.

组合预测方法综合利用各种预测方法所提供的信息，避免单一模型丢失信息的缺憾，减少随机性，从而提高预测精度。

In order to elevate the forecasting precision more, the combination forecasting model based on using entropy to ascertain the weighting coefficients is used to forecasting the corn borer and a satisfactory effect is acquired.

本文为了进一步提高预测精度，提出了基于信息熵确定权系数的组合预测模型，并对玉米螟的发生进行了预测，取得满意的效果。

Therefore, it is significant to research and develop a management information system of agricultural mechanization equipment for agricultural modernization. Based on the modern management theory, some mathematical modelings are constructed by system engineering theory, rough set theory, gray system theory, avail theory and neural network theory in this dissertation. It can resolve some actual problems, for instance, forecasting machine amount, agricultural machine power and prices.

本文在现代管理理论的基础上，运用系统工程、粗糙集理论、灰色理论、效用理论、人工神经网络等方法，进行数学建模，对未来农机需求、农机总动力、农机价格等问题进行探讨，并应用到农机装备管理信息系统的各个方面，对农业机械的各种信息进行传输、存贮、组织和处理分析，最终取得了较为理想的结果。

This dissertation explores the Value Price Theory of Adam Smith, the Price Theory of David Ricardo, the Labor Value Theory of Karl-Marx, the Price Theory of the production expenditure of J. Say, the Marginal Utility theory of Eugen Von Bohn-Bawerk and the Equilibrium Price Theory of Maxieer. Meanwhile it researches the modem market price theory and modern enterprise price practice. Using Marxism and modern market price theory synthetically to analyze passenger price formation mechanism of Civil Aviation of China overall, systematically and deeply on theory.

本文全面分析了亚当·斯密的价值价格理论、大卫·李嘉图的价值价格理论、马克思的劳动价值论、萨伊的生产费用价格论、庞巴维克的边际效用论和马歇尔的均衡价格论，分析了现代市场价格理论以及企业定价实践研究的成果，综合运用马克思主义及现代市场价格理论，对中国民航客运价格形成机制进行了全面、深入、系统的理论分析。

Article 144 The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall maintain the policy previously practised in Hong Kong in respect of subventions for non-governmental organizations in fields such as education, medicine and health, culture, art, recreation, sports, social welfare and social

第一百四十四条香港特别行政区政府保持原在香港实行的对教育、医疗卫生、文化、艺术、康乐、体育、社会福利、社会工作等方面的民间团体机构的资助政策。原在香港各资助机构任职的人员均可根据原有制度继续受聘。

Small wonder, then, that the Chinese spend more in the shop than any other group of foreign visitors do .

这样的小惊喜，使中国顾客比任何国家的人消费得更多。