查询词典 forecasting theory

Although the panel logit models verify the effects of the explanatory variables consistently with the theory, the prediction accuracy is not as good as that of neuro fuzzy. In addition to the better out-sample prediction accuracy, neuro fuzzy also provides a more detailed and complicated relationship among the variables through the rule base mid 3-dimension graphics, which could be used for further theory development or modification Overall, the banking crises ca be predictable; however, each country needs different forecasting model. The mapping between the forecasting model mid data set characteristics ca be further developed for the future research.

实证结果显示，虽然Panel Logit之固定效果与随机效果模型皆验证了过去理论上各变数对银行危机之影响方向，但整体而言，其预测准确度并不比类神经模糊好；而类神经模糊除了提供更准确的样本外预测之外，其所建构的规则库与3D图提供较以往更为细腻的变数关系，此关系可作为未来理论发展之基础；整体而言银行危机可以被有效的预测，然而单一国家的预测结果显示不同的国家适用不同的预测工具，没有一项工具能够适用於所有的国家；而资料集属性与预测工具之对应关系可作为未来之研究方向。

Based on consider hereinbefore, this dissertation discusses several aspects on the problem of the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources as follows:①reviewed entirely the origin and evolvement of the concept "sustainable development", stated and commented the study status in queue on"sustainable development"around national and international range, thorough discussed the science connotation about the concept "sustainable development";②looked back and commented across-the aboard some furthest basic concept and proposition related to groundwater resources, put forward self opinions on a few existent mistake points of view and chaos understandings;③expatiated entirely on the content and meaning of the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, contrast with the traditional methods of groundwater resources calculation and evaluation, combined example to show the application of this theory;④thorough analyzed the difficult and complexity to forecast the groundwater resources, fully stated the traditional methods of groundwater resources forecasting, pointed out the characteristic and applying condition of these forecasting method, introduced the main ideas and methods of wavelet analysis developed recently, and the MATLAB software be known as the fifths era computer language, and its accessory wavelet analysis toolbox, applied these methods and tools to analyze the groundwater dynamic curve, adopted the B-J method and Morte-Carlo method, combined with the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, discussed the new view on the forecast of groundwater resources;⑤synthetically analyzed the characteristics and limitations of the present all kind of groundwater manage model, combined mathematical programming, mathematical statistics, random process and the theory of variation system of groundwater resources on the unite optimum attempter of surface water and groundwater, emphasized how to make the model more nicety, more simple, more practicality;⑥analyzed the inside condition and outside condition to assure the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources, the inside conditions are the follows: correct resources idea, scientific methods of resources calculation and evaluation, credible forecast methods of resources, exercisable measures of resources management, the outside conditions are the follows: the development idea of high layer, the transform of manage system, the matched policy and rule of law, the adjusted of economy lever, the improve of cultural diathesis, the boosting up of water-saving consciousness and detail measures, the control of population rising, the prevention and cure of water pollute, the renew and rebuild of ecology;⑦scan the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources from the high level of metagalaxy, earth system science, and philosophy;⑧point out the more directions on groundwater resources.

它将为制定水资源的可持续发展目标和战略决策提供科学依据，为制定社会、经济可持续发展战略提供理论基础。基于以上考虑，论文主要从以下几方面对地下水资源可持续开发问题进行了比较深入的探讨：①全面回顾了"可持续发展"概念的由来与演变，对国内外"可持续发展"的研究现状进行了述评，并对"可持续发展"概念的科学内涵进行了深入探讨；②对涉及地下水资源的一些最基本的概念和命题进行了全面的回顾和评述，对目前仍然存在的一些错误观点和混乱认识提出了自己的见解；③全面阐述了地下水资源变值系统理论的内容和意义，并与传统的地下水资源计算评价方法进行了对比分析，结合实例具体说明了方法的应用；④深入分析了地下水资源预测预报工作的极端重要性和复杂性，对传统的地下水资源动态预测方法进行了全面的评述，指出了各类预测预报方法的特点及适用条件，对最近二十多年刚发展起来的小波分析技术的主要思想和方法及其应用范围，以及号称第五代计算机语言的MATLAB软件和附带的小波分析工具箱进行了介绍，并应用于地下水动态过程线的分析，采用时间序列中的B-J法，蒙特卡罗方法，与地下水资源变值系统理论相结合，探讨了地下水动态资料分析和地下水资源预测预报的新思路；⑤综合分析了现今各类地下水管理模型的特点及缺陷，将数学规划、数理统计、随机过程等与地下水变值系统理论相结合进行地表水地下水或多水源的联合优化调度，使模型更准确、更实用；⑥对保证地下水资源可持续开发的内部条件和外部条件进行了分析，内部条件主要是正确的资源观，科学的资源计算与评价方法，可靠的资源预测预报技术，可操作的资源管理措施，外部条件主要是高层发展思路、管理体制的变革、配套的政策法规、经济杠杆的调节、人文素质的提高、节水意识的增强及具体节水措施、人口增长的控制、水体污染的防治、生态的恢复和重建等；⑦从宇宙科学、地球系统科学及哲学的高度审视地下水资源的可持续开发；⑧指出了地下水资源可持续开发的进一步研究方向。

The system adopt the method of fast establishing new project based on template file; to forecast the ground movement and deformation of multiple random-shape faces according to probability integral principle, designs the new algorithm of drawing section plane and the new calculation of area and volume of subsided section based on isoclines, at the same time, gives the rule of classifying mine surface damage under GIS environment on the basis of GIS uncertainty theory.

由于开采沉陷过程具有时空特性，本文基于Mapinfo6.5开发了矿区地表变形预测与可视化系统（Mine Surface Deformation Forecasting and Visualization System，简称MSDFVS）系统采用以模板文件形式快速建立新项目的方法，运用概率积分法进行任意形状多工作面开采沉陷地表移动与变形预计，基于等值线设计了新的剖面图绘制算法和塌陷区面积、体积的计算方法，并结合GIS不确定性理论提出了GIS图形环境下矿区地表塌陷破坏等级划分准则。

Grey systems theory and method were used here, the article simulated shelf-life entironment at constant temperature 20℃, and constant humidity 90%, texture profile analysis(TPA tests in sarcocarp and core, were carried out and the texture parameters studied chewiness is found to be the diagnostic gene of shelf-life property changes, with grey model GM(1,1) and grey forecasting model based on chewiness were thus established. The veracity and applicabilidy of the grey forecasting model of carrot core were c...

本研究应用灰色系统理论及其方法，模拟货架期环境(恒温20℃、恒湿90%)，做了胡萝卜贮藏的果肉和果心的TPA测试，进行了质地特性参数的分析研究，得出咀嚼性是胡萝卜货架期品质变化的"特征因子"，并建立了基于咀嚼性的一阶灰色模型GM(1，1)和灰色预测模型，还通过论证与检验，确定了胡萝卜果心的灰色预测模型的准确性与可用性，从而为果蔬贮藏及货架期研究提供一个重要的认识工具。

Firstly, soil aspect, the non- balanced time series model for forecasting soil aquiferous capacity is built up by stochastic theory, and the BP network model is set up by MATLAB artificial neural network tool, the forecasting result is very good.

第一，关于土壤方面，利用随机理论建立了预测土壤含水量的非平稳时序模型，同时运用MATLAB人工神经网络工具箱建立了土壤含水量预测的BP网络模型，取得了较为满意的效果。

Based on consider hereinbefore, this dissertation discusses several aspects on the problem of the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources as follows:①reviewed entirely the origin and evolvement of the concept "sustainable development", stated and commented the study status in queue on"sustainable development"around national and international range, thorough discussed the science connotation about the concept "sustainable development";②looked back and commented across-the aboard some furthest basic concept and proposition related to groundwater resources, put forward self opinions on a few existent mistake points of view and chaos understandings;③expatiated entirely on the content and meaning of the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, contrast with the traditional methods of groundwater resources calculation and evaluation, combined example to show the application of this theory;④thorough analyzed the difficult and complexity to forecast the groundwater resources, fully stated the traditional methods of groundwater resources forecasting, pointed out the characteristic and applying condition of these forecasting method, introduced the main ideas and methods of wavelet analysis developed recently, and the MATLAB software be known as the fifths era computer language, and its accessory wavelet analysis toolbox, applied these methods and tools to analyze the groundwater dynamic curve, adopted the B-J method and Morte-Carlo method, combined with the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, discussed the new view on the forecast of groundwater resources;⑤synthetically analyzed the characteristics and limitations of the present all kind of groundwater manage model, combined mathematical programming, mathematical statistics, random process and the theory of variation system of groundwater resources on the unite optimum attempter of surface water and groundwater, emphasized how to make the model more nicety, more simple, more practicality;⑥analyzed the inside condition and outside condition to assure the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources, the inside conditions are the follows: correct resources idea, scientific methods of resources calculation and evaluation, credible forecast methods of resources, exercisable measures of resources management, the outside conditions are the follows: the development idea of high layer, the transform of manage system, the matched policy and rule of law, the adjusted of economy lever, the improve of cultural diathesis, the boosting up of water-saving consciousness and detail measures, the control of population rising, the prevention and cure of water pollute, the renew and rebuild of ecology;⑦scan the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources from the high level of metagalaxy, earth system science, and philosophy;⑧point out the more directions on groundwater resources.

它将为制定水资源的可持续发展目标和战略决策提供科学依据，为制定社会、经济可持续发展战略提供理论基础。基于以上考虑，论文主要从以下几方面对地下水资源可持续开发问题进行了比较深入的探讨：①全面回顾了&可持续发展&概念的由来与演变，对国内外&可持续发展&的研究现状进行了述评，并对&可持续发展&概念的科学内涵进行了深入探讨；②对涉及地下水资源的一些最基本的概念和命题进行了全面的回顾和评述，对目前仍然存在的一些错误观点和混乱认识提出了自己的见解；③全面阐述了地下水资源变值系统理论的内容和意义，并与传统的地下水资源计算评价方法进行了对比分析，结合实例具体说明了方法的应用；④深入分析了地下水资源预测预报工作的极端重要性和复杂性，对传统的地下水资源动态预测方法进行了全面的评述，指出了各类预测预报方法的特点及适用条件，对最近二十多年刚发展起来的小波分析技术的主要思想和方法及其应用范围，以及号称第五代计算机语言的MATLAB软件和附带的小波分析工具箱进行了介绍，并应用于地下水动态过程线的分析，采用时间序列中的B-J法，蒙特卡罗方法，与地下水资源变值系统理论相结合，探讨了地下水动态资料分析和地下水资源预测预报的新思路；⑤综合分析了现今各类地下水管理模型的特点及缺陷，将数学规划、数理统计、随机过程等与地下水变值系统理论相结合进行地表水地下水或多水源的联合优化调度，使模型更准确、更实用；⑥对保证地下水资源可持续开发的内部条件和外部条件进行了分析，内部条件主要是正确的资源观，科学的资源计算与评价方法，可靠的资源预测预报技术，可操作的资源管理措施，外部条件主要是高层发展思路、管理体制的变革、配套的政策法规、经济杠杆的调节、人文素质的提高、节水意识的增强及具体节水措施、人口增长的控制、水体污染的防治、生态的恢复和重建等；⑦从宇宙科学、地球系统科学及哲学的高度审视地下水资源的可持续开发；⑧指出了地下水资源可持续开发的进一步研究方向。

In addition, the methods of abnormal data processing based on wavelet theory are presented dentally and simulated experimentally. The results of Nanjing load forecasting show that the WVNN method possesses higher forecasting accuracy and better adaptability than artificial neural network forecasting methods which considers day average and day type.

通过对南京地区电力负荷数据的实验结果表明，较之考虑天气因素和日类型的人工神经网络方法预测方法，采用本文所提出的模型有较高的预测精度与较强的适应性。

Based on introducing the grey system theory,this paper discusses on the principle of the forecast of equidimensional filling vacancies,advances the dynamic model of grey forecasting of equidimensional filling vacancies in the medium-long term load forecasting of power system,and forecasts the yearly load value of this area in the period of 1999-2009 with the model established by using the historical load data of some areas.

在介绍灰色系统理论的基础上，讨论了等维递补预测原理，提出了电力系统中长期负荷预测的灰色等维递补预测动态模型，并利用某地区的历史负荷数据建模预测出了该地区1999—2009年的年负荷值。

Weng Wen\|Bo, member of the Board of Chinese Academy of Sciences, suggested the Informational Forecasting Theory, characterized as a creative system either in science, or in practice.

中国地震局地质研究所，北京 100029；2。翁文波科学发展基金，北京100011；3。中国地震台网中心，北京 100045；4。中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会，北京 100081

Therefore, it is significant to research and develop a management information system of agricultural mechanization equipment for agricultural modernization. Based on the modern management theory, some mathematical modelings are constructed by system engineering theory, rough set theory, gray system theory, avail theory and neural network theory in this dissertation. It can resolve some actual problems, for instance, forecasting machine amount, agricultural machine power and prices.

本文在现代管理理论的基础上，运用系统工程、粗糙集理论、灰色理论、效用理论、人工神经网络等方法，进行数学建模，对未来农机需求、农机总动力、农机价格等问题进行探讨，并应用到农机装备管理信息系统的各个方面，对农业机械的各种信息进行传输、存贮、组织和处理分析，最终取得了较为理想的结果。

Neither the killing of Mr Zarqawi nor any breakthrough on the political front will stop the insurgency and the fratricidal murders in their tracks.

在对危险的南部地区访问时，他斥责什叶派民兵领导人对中央集权的挑衅行为。

In fact,I've got him on the satellite mobile right now.

实际上 我们已接通卫星可视电话了