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According to the actual conditions, choose the proper index gas. And KJ-XL beam tube observation system is developed. The natural fire nonage forecast technique system composed of infrared detection, beam tube observation and coal temperature auto-observation scope, realizes the nonage forecast to the No4326 over length fully mechanised mining working face successfully, and reduces the fireproofing scope.

根据4326超长综放工作面的实际情况，选用了合适的指标气体，研制了KJ-XL束管监测系统，提出了以红外探测、束管监测和煤体温度自动监测系统为主的自然发火早期预测预报技术体系，成功地实现了4326超长综放工作面的早期预测预报，缩小了防火范围。

The single gene system cloud gray SCGM (1, 1) model is applied to imitate the development tendency of the forecast system while Markov prediction is used to forecast the fluctuation along the tendency.

用单因子系统云灰色SCGM(1，1)模型拟合系统的发展变化趋势，并以此为基础进行了马尔可夫预测。

Through considering forecast bias, the paper extends theanalysis about diversification e?ect of forecast combination under square loss andfinds the new condition for which simple average weight is optimal weight.

通过考察预测偏差因素，本文拓展了对平方损失函数下组合预测分散化效应的分析，得到了简单平均权重为最优组合预测权重新的条件。

This article take 9309 coal mining face in some mine as an example, through the analysis mine heat source, uses the airflow temperature forecast model, had forecast the distribution of airflow temperature in coal mining face and two cross heading channels, and has carried on the contrast with the measured results.

本文以某矿9309工作面为例，通过分析矿井热源，利用工作面风温预测模型，预测了工作面和两顺槽的风温分布，并与实测结果进行了对比，结果表明热源分析结合风温预测能对工作面的热害程度进行准确预测，这对于矿井通风设计及局部降温设计具有重要意义。

For the forecast backwords of 1984 and forecast forward of 1985 and 1986, the ratio of correct discriminating that a fire will occure in a day is 79.1％, 87.0％, and 80.1％, respectively and ratio of correct discriminating that a fire will not occure in a day is 83.2％...

就预报效果而言，预报1985年某日某林业局能否发生人为火，着火判对率为87.0％，不着火判对率为80.1％；预报1986年，着火判对率为80.1％，不着火判对率为68.7％。采用逐年修正判别函数和判据的方法，可提高判对率。

In view of the shortages of traditional highway freight volume forecast and changeability of truck configuration and freight demand configuration,a new forecast method was developed.

传统的货运量预测方法研究是通过收集历年公路货运量和社会经济数据，应用回归、指数平滑、灰色模型等方法进行公路货运量的直接预测[1-2]。

This article is to introduce the history of Scotch whisky, the difference between single malt whisky and blended whisky. Besides consumers' behavior have changed gradually from blended whisky as mainstream to accept rare with high quality but higher price single malt whisky. The purposes of this study are:(1) to forecast the trend of whisky industry in Taiwan,(2) to forecast the Single malt whisky category trend in Taiwan, and (3) to construct the sales develop model.

中文摘要本论文内容主要是介绍苏格兰威士忌的历史，以及单一麦芽威士忌与调和式威士忌的分别，另外因为国人消费习惯的改变，逐渐接受量少质精且单价高的单一麦芽威士忌，本研究的目的有：预测台湾整体 Whisky产业未来的发展趋势；预测Single Malt Whisky在台湾整体进口威士忌未来的成长情况；及拟建构销售成长模型，提出对行销预算或企划的拟定有所助益。

The research of this paper includes three parts: the first, according to the statistical figures about the cargo transport in recent years, it analyzes cargo transport structure and the changing law and the internal reason of cargo transport. At the same time it analyzes and calculates the change of the arriving ships" structure for a systematic and full understand of the transport demands. The second, it make a scientific forecast of the port"s future cargo capacity making use of the grey forecast system, which provides scientific basis for medium-long term development plan of the ports cargo handling capacity. It also makes some analysis and research for medium-long term development future of Zhangjiagang port in use of physical unit analising technique, looks for the scattered no-order and no-system reason of medium-long term development. On the basis of summarizing their experience, the article adopts physical unit model to make a comprehensive judgement. It has distinctive opinion of value in accord with scientific principles for medium-long term development of Zhangjiagang port.

本文研究的工作主要分三个部分：第一，根据张家港近年来有关货物运输的一些统计数据，对货物运输的结构和规模演变的规律及内在原因作一剖析，同时对到港船舶的结构变化进行预测，以求对运输需求有一个系统全面的了解；第二，应用灰色预测系统对张家港港未来港口货运吞吐量进行科学预测，为张家港港货物装卸能力规划提供科学依据；应用物元分析技术对张家港港口的未来发展前景作出一定程度的分析、研究，找出张家港港口未来发展规划的零散无序、不成系统的因素，总结前人经验的基础上采用综合评判物元模型进行评判，在预测港口未来发展规划是否科学实际上具有独到见解。

The research work of this article is made up of theory and application, it includes three partsrthe first, it takes SWOT analytical technology to analyse Zhangjiagang port" s developing strategic enviorment . The second, it according to the statistical figures about the cargo transport in recent years, it analyzes cargo transport structure and the changing law and the internal reason of cargo transport. At the same time it analyzes and calculates the change of the arriving ships" structure for a systematic and full understand of the transport demands. The third, it make a scientific forecast of the port" s future cargo capacity making use of the grey forecast system, which provides scientific basis for medium-long term development plan of the port"s cargo handling capacity. It also makes some analysis and research for medium-long term development future of Zhangjiagang port in use of physical unit analising technique, looks for the scaltered no-order and no-system reason of medium-long term development.

本文从理论和应用两个部分对港口发展战略进行了研究，研究的工作主要分三个部分：第一，应用SWOT法对港口发展环境进行技术分析；第二，在对国内外同类型港口进行分析的基础上，对张家港港的发展做一比较；根据张家港近年来有关货物运输的一些统计数据，对货物运输的结构和规模演变的规律及内在原因作一剖析，同时对到港船舶的结构变化进行预测，以求对运输需求有一个系统全面的了解；第三，应用灰色预测系统及三次指数平滑法和组合预测法对张家港港未来港口货运吞吐量进行科学预测，为张家港港货物装卸能力规划提供科学依据。

In this paper, the surplus projections and the basic theory of asymmetric information were also discussed, on the basis of this analysis focused on the impact of earnings forecasts and information symmetry of factors: including the impact on earnings forecast accuracy of factors, the management earnings forecast information disclosure and the wishes of the company The judgement of accruals manipulation.

本文首先对盈余预测和信息对称的基本理论进行了阐述，在此基础上重点分析了影响盈余预测和信息对称的因素：包括影响盈余预测准确性的因素，管理当局盈余预测信息披露的意愿和公司对裁决性应计项目的操纵。

In the United States, chronic alcoholism and hepatitis C are the most common ones.

在美国，慢性酒精中毒，肝炎是最常见的。

If you have any questions, you can contact me anytime.

如果有任何问题，你可以随时联系我。