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The first part is the introduction, which generally introduces the research purpose and significance of this thesis, the summary of the financial pre-warning researches both home and abroad, and the research main contexts and research methods; The second part is the comparison on the financial pre-warning methods existent, which compares the different methods by categories, makes a further analysis on the limits of existent methods, and proposes the improve thoughts of this research based on that; The third part is the basic theory, which makes a summary of the referent theories exerted on the research, and exposit the comparing mechanism of the grey prediction theory and the artificial neural network method concise; The fourth part is the frame work of the model, which illuminates the research designs step by step, such as the definition of the financial crisis, the method of sample select, the select and definition of the pre-warning variables, and makes an exposition of the establishment procedures of the whole models at last; The fifth part is the financial pre-warning based on the theory of grey prediction and artificial neural network, which mainly demonstrate the model establishment in the concrete, dividing into four part to carry out the part of pragmatic research integrally, building of indexes system, establishment of BP neural networks, dynamic financial pre-warning and test, analysis on the pre-warning result; The sixth part is conclusion, which sums up the main results of the whole research, clarifies the innovative points, and makes a discussion on the limits and future study directions of the research in this thesis.

其中,第一部分为导论,总括性概述本文的研究目的与意义,国内外研究综述,以及本文的研究内容和方法;第二部分为现有财务预警研究方法剖析,通过对现有预警方法进行分类比较,进一步分析现有预警方法的局限性,并在此基础上提出本文研究的改进思路;第三部分基本理论,对本文研究中运用的相关理论进行扼要概述,并简要阐述灰色预测理论与人工神经方法的融合机理;第四部分为模型研究框架,逐步阐释模型对财务困境的界定,样本数据的选取方法,预警变量的选取与定义等各个部分的研究设计,并对整体模型的构建步骤进行简要阐述;第五部分为基于灰色神经网络模型的财务预警,主要论述动态预警模型的具体实现过程,分模型指标体系的建立,BP神经网络的建立,动态财务预警与检验,以及预警结果分析四个部分全面阐述本文实证分析过程;第六部分为结论,总结本文研究得到的主要研究结论,以及本文研究中的创新之处,并对论文的不足与后续发展研究进行探讨。

According to modern enterprise system and the enterprise internal control theory, and based on extensive practical investigation and research, this thesis firstly analyzed product sale managements, financial affairs management, basic condition of organization construction and the existing problems, facing situation. Furthermore it demonstrated that it is imperative that the end product oil sale corporation of CNPC carries out the concentrated and unified business accountings of financial affairs and it brought forward the design of the reforger of varies business flows under the concentrated and unified accounting model of financial affairs. On this foundation, it analyzed the problems such as processing program of supply of final product oil, financial flow of sale commodity, processing program of sale fund final accounts, the recognition of the key of internal control, etc. Finally, some problems, which is worth paying attention to, have been carried on analysis and discussion, such as the control relation of the final product oil sale corp. and distributive corp. of regions and provinces, the balanced equivalent of centralization of state power and division of power, etc. during the course of putting into effect the system of concentrated and unified business accounting of financial affairs.

本论文根据现代企业制度和企业内部控制理论,在广泛实地调研的基础上,分析了中油成品油销售公司的产品销售管理、财务管理、组织结构等的基本状况及其存在的主要问题和面临的形势,论证了中油成品油销售公司实行财务集中统一核算势在必行,并对在财务集中统一核算模式下的各项业务流程再造进行了设计;在此基础上,具体对成品油供应的处理程序、销售商品的账务流程、成品油销售资金结算的处理程序、内部控制关键点的确认等问题进行了有针对性的分析和设计;最后,对在实施财务集中统一核算制度过程中,中油成品油销售公司与各区域、省市分公司的控制关系、集权与分权的平衡等值得注意的问题进行了分析和讨论。

By compaering the different kinds of financial expenditure effects on employment, we find that the investment of financial expenditure has the biggest effects, next it is consume financial expenditure, and transfer financial expenditure has the least effects. Concerning to the relationship between financial expenditure and labor supply, because the military expenditure and the military army scale taking strong planned feature and the economic method is uneffective.

关于财政支出与劳动供给之间的关系,由于军费支出与军事武装人员规模之间关系是带有强烈的计划性,因此,本文中我们放弃了对这一问题的考察,而将重点放在出财政教育支出、失业保险金支出以及医疗卫生支出对劳动供给的影响上:①由于中国官方的财政教育经费支出直接决定了教育的发展,因此,本文中我们以此为前提而直接考察了教育发展水平与劳动就业之间的联系,我们的理论分析是从是教育结构以及教育总量进行建模型,基于中国历年的统计数据进行的实证研究发现,当前我国不同受教育程度群体的受教育水平与失业率之间存在着&倒U&型关系。

It is the environment of financial management to decide the change of other elements and it is the financial management objectives as the logic starting point element and the basic clue is the financial management practice activity, so that it can put the tight logic relation of them in order, and construct the new financial management theoretical system after " entry to WTO", which have certain innovative. Secondly, this paper analyses the changes of each elements according to our countrys circumstances, which have certain comprehensive. Thirdly, this paper adheres to unition of theory and practise, and demonstrates in terms of the conditions in our country, which have guidance meaning to the financial management practice.

首先,本文对&入世&后我国企业财务管理理论构成元素进行界定,共包括十二个元素,确定变动点元素是财务管理环境、逻辑起点元素是财务管理目标、基本线索是财务管理实践活动,从而理清它们之间相丘联系和伯互依存的严密逻辑关系,建立新的企业财务管理理论框架,具有一定的创新性;其次,本文结合我国加入*后的具体国情,对我国企业财务管理理论创新重点进行深入浅出的分析,具有一定的前瞻性:再次,本文坚持理沦性与实践性的统一,立论及论证都紧扣我国的实际情况,对实践有一定的指导意义。

This chapter is established in capital movement financial essence concept and the law of contradiction movement, regarding financial management as the basis of the dynamic balance management of the capital movement contradiction, basing on oppugning the problems of financial management goal and financial management hypothesis research, and bringing new enterprise financial management goal and hypothesis system.

本章立足于资本运动这一财务本质观及其矛盾运动规律,将财务管理看作是&对企业资本运动中矛盾的动态平衡管理&,在对我国当前研究倾向及存在问题进行思考与质疑的基础上,提出了新的财务管理目标和假设体系。

What is the connotation of the steady financial pllicy? First it is to control the financial deficit, however, continue to maintain the long-term constructed national debt releasing scale and the certain financial deficit scale. Second it is to adjust structure, much more money should be invested in weak links that need to strengthen such as agriculture, education, science, arts and health, social security. Thirdly, it is to advance reform, vacating the financial resource for system innovation not relying on national debt investment fueling economic growth any more. Lastly, it is to increase income and reduce expenses to enhance financial fund's use benefit.

稳健的财政政策的内涵:一是控制赤字,但继续保持一定财政赤字规模和长期建设国债发行规模;二是调整结构,把更多的钱用到需要加强的农业、科教文卫、社会保障等薄弱环节;三是推进改革,不再主要依靠国债投资拉动经济增长,腾出财力用于体制和制度创新;四是增收节支,提高财政资金的使用效益。

Its main functions are in accordance with the modern financial enterprise management mode, and its members for the Group units for handling deposits and loans, clearing, bill discounting, financial and financing, the buyer credit, consumer credit, to issue or underwrite bonds, financial equity investment, lending, etc. financial services, and on behalf of Group external handle financial matters.

其主要职能是按照现代金融企业管理模式,为集团公司及其成员单位办理存贷款、结算、票据贴现、财务和融资顾问、买方信贷、消费信贷、发行或承销债券、金融股权投资、同业拆借等金融业务,并代表集团公司对外处理金融事务。

NPAs can be classified financial NPAs and economic NPAs according to their original causes. Financial NPAs are originated frorn the fictitious nature of NPAs and the relatively independent movement of NPAs. The financial bubble or loss is the gap between the price of financial assets and the value of their corresponding real assets. The economic NPAs are resulted from devaluation of corresponding real assets, and the economical bubble or loss is the gap between the face value of the financial assets and the value of their corresponding real assets.

不良资产按其形成于内因还是外因,分为金融性不良资产和经济性不良资产,金融性不良资产是由于金融资产本身的虚拟性以及金融资产自身相对独立运动形成的,相应的金融性泡沫或损失是金融资产的价格超过与其对应的实际资产的名义价格部分;经济性不良资产是经济原因导致的对应实际资产贬值而形成的不良资产,经济性不良资产的泡沫或损失是对应实际资产价值低于金融资产帐面原值部分。

As to the domestic external risks: suggest that we should change government's way of performance appraisal, re-clarify the edge of government's economic function, and set the maintaining of financial stability and safety as one important appraisal criteria; change the National People\'s Congress-centered legislative committee into Constitution court, monitoring government's operation and unconstitutional acts, and maintain the constitutional order and dignity; set up financial court to handle financial cases, re-explain the priority of mortgage debt, and strengthen the protection of financial debt; make full use of the power of social organization and media, regulate and improve the information disclosure of financial institutions regularly.

在应对国内外部风险时:建议改变政府的绩效考核目标方式,重新界定政府经济职能的边界,将维护金融稳定与安全作为重要考核指标;适当时候成立宪法法院,监督政府施政行为和违宪行为,维护宪法秩序和尊严;设立金融法院,集中审理与金融有关的案件,重新解释抵押债权的优先顺序,强化金融债权保护;发挥社会组织、媒体的监督作用,明确规定和不断提高金融机构的信息透明度。

Whether from the research of the theories field or the fulfillment of the financial liberalism of many counties, financial liberalism is always one handle a two-blade sword with its dual effect: On the one hand, it promote the financial development and then promote the economic development; On the other hand, it turn worse the financial frangibility, may cause financial crisis and even leads to economic crisis.

无论从理论界的研究还是世界各国金融自由化的实践来看,金融自由化由来都是一柄双刃剑,具有双重效应:一方面,促进金融发展进而促进经济发展;另一方面,加剧金融脆弱性,可能引发金融危机乃至经济危机。

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