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Since Leptokurtosis, skewness and fat-tail are always used to depict market risk, this paper introduces the improved Laplace distribution to risk management of stock portfolio. Empirical results show, improved Laplace distribution and asymmetric Laplace distribution are similar for estimating Leptokurtosis, while improved Laplace distribution is better for estimating skewness.In order to analyze the correlation between return distribution and volatility, the thesis uses ARCH-M Models to simulate the return series of China's Stock Market and developed markets ao as to discover the relation between investment return and time-varying risk.

对尖峰、厚尾、偏态的刻画有助于正确估计市场风险,本文将改进型Laplace分布引入到股票组合的风险管理中,实证结果发现,改进型Laplace分布和非对称Laplace分布对尖峰、厚尾的刻画效果接近;而非对称Laplace分布对负偏性考察不足,改进型Laplace分布的拟合结果能够准确地反映股指收益的负偏态,这也正是改进型Laplace分布相对于传统的非对称Laplace分布的优势所在。

I will introduce a method to solve this problem when data come from some common life distribution, such as Weibull distribution and Lognormal distribution. In chapter 1, we introduce background of grouped data and how to analyze them with classical methods. In chapter 2, we introduce EM algorithm and show that the estimation of the parameters get through this algorithm is convergent under certain conditions. In chapter 3, we use EM algorithm to estimate parameters in Weibull distribution and Lognormal distribution by grouped data and the simulation shows this method is available.

第一章首先介绍分组数据问题的背景以及如何利用经典的统计方法对分组数据进行分析,并指出分析过程中所遇到的困难;第二章将介绍一种处理不完全数据时的常用算法,EM算法,并说明利用这种算法所得到的估计具有良好的收敛性;第三章将利用EM算法对基于分组数据的威布尔分布和对数正态分布进行参数估计,并进行模拟表明此方法的可行性与有效性。

With the wide development of the mixed Poisson distribution in the medical, financial and insurance applications, it is receiving increasing attention. But, according to the author to understand, at present, studies on the Mixed Poisson distribution of the literature are relatively small, the most important reason is that it does not have a Mixed Gaussian distribution of a wide range of applications. However, with advances in computer technology and the development of statistical techniques, Mixed Poisson distribution analysis of statistical data will play an increasingly important role, thus the system in detail study of Mixed Poisson distribution model parameter estimation is necessary.

随着混合泊松分布在医学,金融保险等领域的应用越来越广泛,因此它越来越受到人们的重视,但是据作者了解,目前,对混合泊松分布研究的文献是比较少的,其中最重要的原因是它没有混合正态分布的应用范围广泛,但是随着计算机技术的进步和统计技术的发展,混合泊松分布将在统计数据分析中扮演越来越重要的角色,因而系统,详细的研究混合泊松分布模型的参数估计是非常有必要的。

Then,we improve CSFP Model in two aspects:when we ascertain the frequency of default,we use negative binomial distribution to substitute Poisson distribution so that the model can measure the data better;when we ascertain the loss distribution of default,we use Γ-distribution to substitute normal distribution.

其创新与特色一是对贷款组合的风险暴露数进行分段,在每一频段上分别确定风险暴露数分布,进而可以更准确的描述各笔贷款的风险暴露数。二是在确定风险暴露数分布时,用Γ分布替代了传统的正态分布,解决了贷款违约的风险暴露数分布的厚尾问题,进而解决了大宗贷款违约的风险度量问题。三是确定违约频率时,用负二项分布来代替传统的泊松分布,解决了违约频率的方差通常要大于其均值的分布拟合问题。

We obtain the risk process involved in this model,the statistical properties of the surplus process,and statistical features of the claim numbers and the probability distribution of the total amount of compensation.The three types of business of the risk model is given when the number of claims obey Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution.We make a comparison between the risk model built in the thesis and the classic risk models with independent claim numbers when the amount of claims obey Weillbull distribution and Exponential distribution.The results have a good practical significance.

其次,考虑不同险种间的相互关系,建立了一种含有主副理赔的风险分析模型;借助随机过程和经典风险理论,对该风险模型所涉及的风险过程、盈余过程的统计特性以及理赔总额的概率分布、数字特征和矩母函数进行解析研究,给出了主理赔次数服从泊松分布和负二项分布的这种风险模型的具体实例,并在理赔额变量服从Weillbul分布和Exponential分布的情况下,把文中所建风险模型和理赔次数相互独立的风险模型作了比较,所得结果有很好的现实意义。

In the meantime, a new relation between the coefficient of variation for a normal variate and its sample size is achieved, where the probability to make mistake Ⅱ is considered 5 The probability distribution of fatigue strength at given life under large sample size determined by a new method is found to follow the log-normal distribution and normal distribution, and a new method are developed to estimate the characteristic parameters of probability distribution of fatigue strength from the probability distribution of traditional tensile properties.

根据P-S-N曲线的要求,采用概率统计方法,导出了考虑犯Ⅱ类错误的概率时获取给定精度P-S-N曲线所需的最少子样容量,引入了不同方法获取的P-S-N曲线结果是否趋同的判别标准,得到了P-S-N曲线的寿命求解法和系数求解法获得趋同结果的条件。 5)研究了大子样条件下指定寿命时疲劳强度的概率分布,并提出了根据拉伸性能的分布估算材料疲劳强度概率分布参数的一种方法。

And the leaf transportation percentage of 14C photoassimilates was 14.6% increased.The 14C-soluble sugar distribution percentage of CCC treatment in leaf and stem were less than those of the control,respectively,but the 14C-soluble sugar distribution percentage of CCC treatment in tuber and root were more than those of the control,respectively.The 14C-starch distribution percentage of CCC treatment in leaf,stem and root were less than those of the control,respectively.but the 14C-starch distribution percentage of CCC treatment in tuber was more than that of the control.The radioautography also indicated that photosynthate transport from top tissues to tubers was faster in CCC treatment than that in control.These results showed that appropriate concentrations at 1.5 g L-1 of CCC significantly improved the photosynthetic characteristics,transport and distribution capability of photoassimilates in potato,and as a result tuber yield would be increased.The pattern of translocation shown is held to reflect the activities of the various metabolic sources and sinks,the activities of these sources and sinks being hormonally controlled.

和叶运输的百分比为14 C photoassimilates为14.6 %升高为14 C -可溶性糖分配的百分比CCC认证,在治疗叶和茎均小于那些控制,分别为,但14碳-可溶性糖分配的百分比中华基督教会在治疗块茎和根多于那些控制,分别为14 C -淀粉分配的百分比CCC认证治疗叶,茎,根均小于那些控制, respectively.but了14 C的淀粉分布的百分比CCC认证的待遇是块茎以上的对照radioautography还表示,光合产物的运输,从顶端组织,以块茎快,在CCC认证的待遇比在control.these结果表明,适当浓度一点五克L - 1的CCC产品大大提高了光合特性,运输和分配的能力, photoassimilates在马铃薯,结果块茎产量将增加,模式易位显示举行,以反映活动的各种代谢源和汇,这些活动的源和汇正激素的控制。

In this paper, the conditional mean and its applications to Bayesian estimation of the parameters and reliability measures of common failure distribution which include two-parameter exponential distribution, left truncated two-parameter exponential distribution, normal distribution and lognormal distribution are discussed.

本文讨论了条件均值对某些常见失效分布的参数与可靠性测度的Bayes估计的应用,这些分布包括,双参数指数分布,左截尾双参数指数分布,正态分布与对数正态分布。

This dissertation investigates the construction of pseudo-random sequences (pseudo-random numbers) from elliptic curves and mainly analyzes their cryptographic properties by using exponential sums over rational points along elliptic curves. The main results are as follows:(1) The uniform distribution of the elliptic curve linear congruential generator is discussed and the lower bound of its nonlinear complexity is given.(2) Two large families of binary sequences are constructed from elliptic curves. The well distribution measure and the correlation measure of order k of the resulting sequences are studied. The results indicate that they are "good" binary sequences which give a positive answer to a conjecture proposed by Goubin et al.(3) A kind of binary sequences from an elliptic curve and its twisted curves over a prime field F_p. The length of the sequences is 4p. The "1" and "0" occur almost the same times. The linear complexity is at least one-fourth the period.(4) The exponential sums over rational points along elliptic curves over ring Z_ are estimated and are used to estimate the well distribution measure and the correlation measure of order k of a family of binary sequences from elliptic curves over ring Z_.(5) The correlation of the elliptic curve power number generator is given. It is proved that the sequences produced by the elliptic curve quadratic generator are asymptotically uniformly distributed.(6) The uniform distribution of the elliptic curve subset sum generator is considered.(7) We apply the linear feedback shift register over elliptic curves to produce sequences with long periods. The distribution and the linear complexity of the resulting sequences are also considered.

本文研究利用椭圆曲线构造的伪随机序列,主要利用有限域上椭圆曲线有理点群的指数和估计讨论椭圆曲线序列的密码性质——分布、相关性、线性复杂度等,得到如下主要结果:(1)系统讨论椭圆曲线-线性同余序列的一致分布性质,即该类序列是渐近一致分布的,并给出了它的非线性复杂度下界;(2)讨论两类由椭圆曲线构造的二元序列的&良性&分布与高阶相关性(correlation of order κ),这两类序列具有&优&的密码性质,也正面回答了Goubin等提出的公开问题;(3)利用椭圆曲线及其挠曲线构造一类二元序列,其周期为4p(其中椭圆曲线定义在有限域F_p上),0-1分布基本平衡,线性复杂度至少为周期的四分之一;(4)讨论了剩余类环Z_上的椭圆曲线的有理点的分布估计,并用于分析一类由剩余类环Z_上椭圆曲线构造的二元序列的伪随机性;(5)讨论椭圆曲线-幂生成器序列的相关性及椭圆曲线-二次生成器序列的一致分布;(6)讨论椭圆曲线-子集和序列的一致分布;(7)讨论椭圆曲线上的线性反馈移位寄存器序列的分布,线性复杂度等性质。

In order to construct a scientifical, fair and reasonable system of social income distribution, we have to deepen the reform of the system of income distribution and standardize the order of income distribution. The income distribution of civil servants is an important part of the income distribution of the whole society.

持续的收入分配不公,已经沉淀了许多社会矛盾,构成了巨大的社会张力,有些甚至到了一触即发的严重程度,对改革的进一步深化以及和谐社会的构建产生了相当大的影响。

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Breath, muscle contraction of the buttocks; arch body, as far as possible to hold his head, right leg straight towards the ceiling (peg-leg knee in order to avoid muscle tension).

呼气,收缩臀部肌肉;拱起身体,尽量抬起头来,右腿伸直朝向天花板(膝微屈,以避免肌肉紧张)。

The cost of moving grain food products was unchanged from May, but year over year are up 8%.

粮食产品的运输费用与5月份相比没有变化,但却比去年同期高8%。

However, to get a true quote, you will need to provide detailed personal and financial information.

然而,要让一个真正的引用,你需要提供详细的个人和财务信息。