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Breakwater ; risk source ; risk evaluate ; risk management ; engineering insurance

防波堤；风险源；风险评价；风险管理；工程保险

It is against this background, the "ISO28000-based supply chain partnership with the risk of early warning" of this issue, the paper will be in the group with the ISO28000 standards in the supply chain partnership venture to combine research, the establishment of the supply chain partnership risk warning Index system, the use of artificial neural network technology supply chain partnership model and risk early warning empirical research, corporate decision-making so as to provide a strong basis to ensure the smooth progress of the supply chain.

正是在这种背景下，提出了《基于ISO28000的供应链伙伴关系风险预警研究》这一课题，在论文中将ISO28000标准族与供应链伙伴关系风险研究结合起来，建立供应链伙伴关系风险预警指标体系，运用人工神经网络技术设计供应链伙伴关系风险预警模型并进行实证研究，从而为企业决策提供有力的依据，保证供应链的顺利运行。

Supply chain risk information warning index weight is ascertained with the Analytical of Hierarchy Process. It structures a simple risk warning model and puts forward a process of supply chain risk information warning index.

在简介层次分析法的基础上，利用层次分析法确定供应链风险信息预警指标权重，构建供应链风险信息预警模型，完善供应链风险信息预警体系工作流程。

This article based on the postal savings to the survival and development of the target, and play in rural network and brand advantages, cultivate core competence, the construction characteristics, a "differential" bank of road, puts forward the postal savings bank in the overall strategy to rural and urban development, and make good use of their advantages, while doing the rural coinsurance microfinance and the rural guarantee loans , using the credit risk of three passes, strengthen risk management, raise the risk control ability,and chose steady development strategy.

本文立足于邮政储蓄求生存、求发展的目标，取长补短，发挥在农村网络、品牌优势，培养核心竞争力，建设特色银行、走"差异化"道路为出发点，提出了邮政储蓄银行在整体战略上应向农村和中小城市发展，利用好自身网络优势，把农村联保小额信贷，农村保证贷款做大做好的同时，利用信贷风险的三道防线，强化风险管理，提高风险防控能力，选择稳健发展战略。

And we try to put forward the suggestion for the principle of risk acceptance and the establishing for risk reducing measures.Sowe can form a complete measure of fuzzy risk assessment for refined oil store,which can accord with the reality of our country.

制定出较为客观的成品油库失效因素及失效后果因素评价的方法，对成品油库的风险可接受性原则、风险缓解措施的建立提出建议，形成一套较符合我国国情的成品油库的模糊风险评价方法。

For this type of new model,we study it mainly from these ways:First,we make further research on the nature features of their distributions;give out the probability distribution of the mixed stochastic variables,and the statistical features and the approximate distributions of the short-term individual risk models. Also the relationships between the total amount of compound compensation and individual one were investigated.At last we give out a kind of practical calculation method for the individual risk model.That is the calculation of the number of claims translating into the calculation of Vandermonde determinant.Second,a kind of risk model with main claims and by-claims is built under specific conditions.

对于这类有主副理赔的风险模型，我们主要从以下几个方面进行研究：首先，对短期个别风险模型和长期聚合风险模型的理赔总额的分布性质及特征做了较深入的研究，给出了混合型随机变量和的概率分布和短期个别风险模型理赔总额的统计特征与近似分布；在复合分布的框架下，研究了聚合风险模型理赔总额和个别理赔额之间的分布关系，给出了和个别理赔额对应的理赔次数的实用计算方法，即在总索赔额服从复合泊松分布时，把不同理赔额对应的理赔次数的计算转化为线性方程组的计算。

According to the characters of debris flow and risk controlling condition in mountain towns, The concentric circle theory of geography is introduced in this paper, The concentric circle model for debris risk control in mountain towns is discussed and the effect of "concentric circle model" in hazard risk control is analyzed.

针对山区城镇泥石流危害特征及风险控制现状，引入地理学中的同心圆理论，探讨了山区城镇泥石流风险控制的"同心圆模式"，分析了"同心圆模式"中各风险控制层对灾害风险的控制机制及效应，提出城镇泥石流风险控制应遵循多层防范、逐级降低的思路，研究可为山区城镇的减灾管理提供合理的参考。

We introduce the basic concepts needed to analyze the estimation error in VC theory by showing the connection between Empirical Risk Minimization consistency and uniform convergence and illustrate necessary and sufficient conditions for the consistency of the ERM principle, that is for the convergence of the minimum of the empirical risk to the minimum of the expected risk.

为了整合最小化经验风险和最小化期望风险理论，我们将藉由最小化经验风险(Empirical Risk Minimization， ERM)及统一收敛性举例说明原理的必要与充份条件，以分析VC计算理论的误差估算所需的基本概念。

Insurance, a form of risk management primarily used to hedge against the risk of a contingent loss, is defined as the equitable transfer of the risk of a loss, from one entity to another, in exchange for a premium, and can be thought of a guaranteed small loss to prevent a large, possibly devastating loss.

保险是风险管理的一种形式，主要用于对冲意外损失的风险。就其定义而言，保险是通过支付保险费的方式使损失的风险从一个实体向另一个实体的公正的转移。保险可以说是通过承担一笔小额保证金来防止一次巨大的损失，甚至可能是惨重的损失。

Recognize the different kinds of credit risks with corespondent feature, for which set different product credit risk coefficient respectively; analyze the clients" operating environment, competition, financials and management skills, based on which establish model for calculating client credit safety coefficient; then formulate the value of different products" credit risk--credit risk degree.

基于当今国际银行业盛行的风险资产管理理论的思想，文章指出中国银行业在信用风险的识别、衡量、处理和决策四方面存在着问题，并认为中国银行业应：在区分信用业务与信贷业务的基础上，确立对信用风险的正确认识。

Nowadays, most of research are to build a transmutative Petri Nets through adding controlling place sets, controlling arc sets and controlling policy to the basic Petri Nets, while the Controlled Petri Nets could be used to argue many controlling theory problems conveniently and to induce many logically and physically supervisory and solve the Event Feedback Controlling Problems and State Feedback Controlling Problem in DEDS supervisory theory.

目前大多数的研究表现为在变形后的受控Petri网基础上，利用各种方法求得各种逻辑型、结构型控制器，解决DEDS监控理论中的事件反馈控制问题与状态反馈控制问题。

On one hand, there are discussions with the works council and union about extension of short time working up to the end of September.

一方面，有讨论，工程理事会和联盟关于延长工作时间短至9月底。